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murali Profile picture
@muralipiyer
Sep 29, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
I don’t want to call this an #options #tradenotes. Nor do I really want to call it currency1.
Did a bull put spread on USD-INR atm.
73.75 at .1075
73.5 at .0375
Just 1 lot.
Worst I can only lose ₹300.
I can gain only ₹70.
I think fees is ₹27.
This is merely a test trade.
I missed a 0 in 300.
For buy I spent 37.5
For sell I got 107.5.
premium recieved = 70
Different in strike is 0.25.
BEP must be 73.75-.07
That’s like 73.68
I have about .18 in the remaining gap.
Lot size I believe is 1000.
For gap of .25, max is 250.
Then fees paid.

These are things I want to confirm
So fees is about 26 each. About ₹52.5 is the fees for setting the whole trade.
For each additional lot, I will end up paying ₹4 more.
It’s about ₹200 for a trade with a decent 10 lot size.

I don’t see much benefit in adding the protection leg margin perspective.

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More from @muralipiyer

murali Profile picture
Oct 24, 2021
This is the trickle I expected to see.

@economyninja explains what else is happening due to the delay in ship turn around times. Mind you, most Chinese exporters are smart. They don’t ship until they get full payment. And most buyers stupidly pay upfront!
The kind of stories we have been repeatedly seeing.
a) foreign companies are steadily leaving china.
b) some think they are too invested in China, and they are talking China plus one.
c) Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean companies are closing in large numbers, mostly kicked out.
d) there is huge imbalance in container traffic. Trade imbalances are affecting shipping.
e) the shipping delays are getting too worse. It’s choking inbound traffic in consumer states.
f) Fuck you, corona!
(I hope that covers all manpower disruptions due to Wuhan virus)
Read 5 tweets
murali Profile picture
Oct 16, 2021
Time for a bit on China.

You all know how i love to bash China and Xi Jinping.
Now, a little bit without the excessive dramatisations.
2. #XiJinping is a rare leader that China has received. Providence has a way to feed the right medicine to someone that it wants to keep alive longer.
Jinping is just that.
3. The mess in China can be easily related. What we have is a large babudom state. The party politbureau is the only controlling authority, but it’s a collection of different ambitions, that just want to show good results on paper. The whole system relies on having good press.
Read 63 tweets
murali Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021
I am not an economist, but this is what i feel is happening around us.

This is start of a rant.
Pandemic induced trade disruption is a reality.
It’s timing though is either miraculous or impeccable, based on which side of the conspiracy theory aisle you prefer.

Pre-pandemic, everything wasn’t really that rosy. And this is around the world.
3. Stuff like steel, oil, etc were already under some kind of pressure.
A lot of muck was getting stirred in China.

Global gdp growth data in pic. The last peak was the 4.3% in 2009. In 2019, it was a mere 2.3%. People were just hoping that 2020 would be better.
Read 34 tweets
murali Profile picture
Sep 21, 2021
@chittukuruvi4
This is the video to broadly answer your evergrande question
@chittukuruvi4
This is a very interesting conversation. Ofc, none better than @_nirajshah to ask those relevant questions.
The key part: it’s not really about evergrande hitting us.
It’s about this huge india story. Key factor: India needs to go up 8-10% to meet pre-covid levels
@chittukuruvi4
Another key take away:
This guy is already talking about being selective. That’s very interesting.
It’s as if he is indicating that we are near the peak or we are a bit past it.
And, he expects a >5% correction.
I think earnings will adjust.
Read 5 tweets
murali Profile picture
Feb 10, 2021
109. #Options #Notes

A quick update on a few stuff.

For a conservative, low margin money person(low money at hand), the best option in credit spreads is about 25-30 delta. You are looking for risk reward 1:0.5 to 1:0.25.
You can manage at 1:1 by being more active.
110. #Options #Notes
It’s better to have all spreads at 1/3rd the width of strike.
That gives us a 1:0.5 RR ratio. Ex: trade with max profit of ₹1k has max loss of ₹2k.

You can’t have a low probability trade unless you are damn sure about it.
111. #Options #Notes

If you are going to be directional, be directional.
I had tried both ATM bullish put spread and 35 delta put spread on SBIN. I got more out of former because i got the direction right and i used closer to 50 delta.

In directional, do it 💯 or don’t do it.
Read 4 tweets
murali Profile picture
Oct 31, 2020
I believe what’s happening now is a disruption in the way we think of commutation.

The pandemic has shown us that an 8-hr office is not really necessary.
Of course, there are sectors where Work-From-Home doesn’t make sense.
But, vast majority of work can be done from home.
The reason: we have now digital connectivity substituting for physical or road connectivity.
This is an option we never had in the past.
Technically, we can employ people from home, with an occasaional face to face interaction for certain limited activities that require physical presence.
Read 28 tweets

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