A thread🧵 on telehealth in SE Asia + opportunity for $SE (and others) in the next decade🧐 ➡️
1️⃣ Indonesia 🇮🇩 is the 4th most populous country in the 🌎 + is expected to grow by 40% by 2050, ⛽️ demand for healthcare. Other SEA countries possess similar demographics
2️⃣🇮🇩 has 12 hospital 🛏 + 4 doctors 🥼 per 10,000 👥 (lower than other SE Asia countries)
3️⃣ Halodoc, Alodokter + GrabHealth – main players in 🇮🇩 + have seen usage sky 🚀 during the pandemic. Numerous other start-up platforms in other SEA countries ➡️ fragmented
Where does $SE fit in🧩
4️⃣ In August, Forrest Li said he was keeping an 👁 on new 🎯 including food services, e-learning + telehealth
5️⃣ SeaMoney is the core strategic focus now but any hints of move into telehealth?
6️⃣ ShopeeMall's health + beauty category inc. pharmacies 💊 + sales of health products have 📈
7️⃣ Shopee 🇲🇾 partnered with DoctorOnCall, the first + largest digihealth platform, to facilitate purchase of 🦠 test kits
8️⃣ ShopeeLive hosted health awareness + educ: “by leveraging our technology + marketing tools such as ShopeeLive, DoctorOnCall is able to bring curated content to viewers at home” $SE
What next?
9️⃣ If $SE does push into telehealth it is likely to mirror the $JD (JD Health) and $BABA (AliHealth) biz models which focus on using the e-com platform for 💊 products, medical supplies, vitamins etc. This is low-hanging 🍇 + already in play on Shopee🛍
🔟Given where SEA countries are relative to 🇨🇳 in telehealth, mirroring Tencent's WeDoctor, which is essentially an internet-based 🏥 , with AI diagnosis, is v unlikely for many years
➡️ However, it would not surprise me to see $SE partner with, or acquire stakes in, emerging telehealth cos + fuse with ShopeeLive + ShopeePay platforms 🔚
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$SE recent move into the travel space wasn’t a surprise for close watchers of the e-com🛍 platforms in SE Asia, as detailed in the excellent @TheKenWeb / @xinyi_pholsena article below. But how does this move fit into Sea’s wider strategy? ⬇️
1/ “Buy everything on Shopee🛍” is their motto; in other words, capture 📈% of user spend. Groceries, food delivery + travel are the obvious manifestations of this. The essence of a “super app” $SE
2/ But travel is a different beast, building relationships with 🏨 operators is hard, delivering a high service quality in travel is a new skillset. So…partnering with Agoda+booking acknowledges $SE limitations, which I like
1/ $SE a thread🧵on the evolution of SeaMoney, Sea’s digital financial services (DFS). Things are about to get interesting: critical pieces ♟ are now falling into place + incremental monetization can begin at scale ⬇️⬇️⬇️
2/ What is SeaMoney? It includes payments services such as ShopeePay (e-wallet) + AirPay (reverse ATM), nascent digital 🏦 in 🇸🇬 + 🇮🇩 + a range of consumer/SMB financing products inc. BNPL (SPayLater) + seller loans (SPinjam) ➡️ services are launched/adapted at country level $SE
3/ Rivals - Grab + Gojek are regional rivals. Sea’s advantages include access to funding, its regional network + superior use-case (🛍). Multiple players can be successful + niche specialists will emerge $SE
$SE Shopee 🛍 + its path to profitability ➡️ a thread🧵
1️⃣ Shopee 🛍 headline EBITDA losses (between $250m and $310m in each of the past several Qs) at a business level are, in isolation, misleading ➡️ they do not tell the full picture 🖼
Here's why ➡️
2️⃣ It is important instead to 👀 unit economics ➡️ at order level. As its comp position has 💪 in recent Qs – it was ranked no. 1 🥇in key download and engagement metrics in Q2 20 ➡️ EBITDA loss per order has continued to narrow Q on Q, from $2.07 in Q4 16 to $0.50 in Q2 20. $SE
3️⃣ Shopee 🛍 has increased its take-rate over the past 3 years from 0.1% (Q1 17) to 6.3% in (Q2 20)
🔹This number is "inflated" by the inclusion of VAS (logistics services to cross-border sellers) and handling fees
1️⃣ While the narrative in 🇺🇸 and other dev markets switches to a potential COVID vaccine, the reality for many emerging markets (EMs) including 🇮🇩 + 🇧🇷 is the wait may be significantly longer. Consumers and sellers are adapting to a new normal.
2️⃣ The longer this period of uncertainty persists, the more entrenched digital consumer preferences will become, the more sellers (both small and large) will shift their focus to online marketplaces and distribution channels.
3️⃣ Consumers in EMs are not just spending more online as forecasted in 2019, they're also buying into more categories online, including previously underpenetrated areas such as 🍎🌽🥕🥔(online and fresh) and non-alcoholic beverages.
- some takeaways from the Q2’20 con call: 1. “profound structural shift” across all markets which will be “long-lasting” 2. nearly 50m paying users / above 10% of total users (500m) for 🎮 3. Free Fire 🔥: peak DAUs of 100m + top grossing game in 🇧🇷 and 🇮🇩
Continued....
4. partnering with Netflix/Money Heist for “in game takeover” 5. Acceleration in July for 🎮 - bodes well for Q3 6. 🛍 accelerating growth in all markets v Q1. More global and local brands joined. 7. Monetization ramped 📈 despite SMB support program
Continued...
8. “Shopee Stories” launched for sellers 9. DFS 💳 - 50% growth v Q1, more adoption by Shopee users (45% of total orders in 🇮🇩) 10. Full year guidance: confident of “out performance” (🎮) but no change yet. 11. 🇹🇼 / 🇻🇳 growth in 🛍 high despite no lockdown
some takeaways from Q2: 1. DBNER at 183% 😳 2. Pricing model means the co grows with dev clients - eg Scener has grown 100x since March 3. 300+ use cases 4. Usage in 🇨🇳 remained high after lockdown ended 5. Int’l expansion continues - LatAm mentioned
Continued....
6. <20% bump in usage attributable to COVID + user pref for live video tools permanent 7. GM impacted by 🌎 expansion + infrastructure costs. Regional pricing to be rolled out. LT GM will 📈 8. Educ remains most promising use case + exam invigilation emerging
Continued...
9. Re 🇺🇸 + 🇨🇳 tensions: no impact currently / can’t control 10. No +10% customers this Q 11. New platform tool roll out soon: “XRA” - measures performance/quality of platform. 12. S&M expense as % of revenue dropped significantly. Trend will continue