james booth ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿšด๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ Profile picture
๐Ÿ“ˆinvesting in digital๐Ÿ“ฒ platform and infrastructure businesses โžก๏ธ themes and micro-trends within ๐Ÿ›๐Ÿ•น๐Ÿ’ณ๐ŸŽถ๐Ÿ“บ๐Ÿ‘ฉ๐Ÿปโ€โš•๏ธโžก๏ธ connecting the โ€ขdotsโ€ข
29 Sep
A thread๐Ÿงต on telehealth in SE Asia + opportunity for $SE (and others) in the next decade๐Ÿง โžก๏ธ

1๏ธโƒฃ Indonesia ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ is the 4th most populous country in the ๐ŸŒŽ + is expected to grow by 40% by 2050, โ›ฝ๏ธ demand for healthcare. Other SEA countries possess similar demographics
2๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ has 12 hospital ๐Ÿ› + 4 doctors ๐Ÿฅผ per 10,000 ๐Ÿ‘ฅ (lower than other SE Asia countries)

3๏ธโƒฃ Halodoc, Alodokter + GrabHealth โ€“ main players in ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ + have seen usage sky ๐Ÿš€ during the pandemic. Numerous other start-up platforms in other SEA countries โžก๏ธ fragmented
Where does $SE fit in๐Ÿงฉ

4๏ธโƒฃ In August, Forrest Li said he was keeping an ๐Ÿ‘ on new ๐ŸŽฏ including food services, e-learning + telehealth

5๏ธโƒฃ SeaMoney is the core strategic focus now but any hints of move into telehealth?
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep
$SE Shopee ๐Ÿ› + its path to profitability โžก๏ธ a thread๐Ÿงต

1๏ธโƒฃ Shopee ๐Ÿ› headline EBITDA losses (between $250m and $310m in each of the past several Qs) at a business level are, in isolation, misleading โžก๏ธ they do not tell the full picture ๐Ÿ–ผ

Here's why โžก๏ธ
2๏ธโƒฃ It is important instead to ๐Ÿ‘€ unit economics โžก๏ธ at order level. As its comp position has ๐Ÿ’ช in recent Qs โ€“ it was ranked no. 1 ๐Ÿฅ‡in key download and engagement metrics in Q2 20 โžก๏ธ EBITDA loss per order has continued to narrow Q on Q, from $2.07 in Q4 16 to $0.50 in Q2 20. $SE
3๏ธโƒฃ Shopee ๐Ÿ› has increased its take-rate over the past 3 years from 0.1% (Q1 17) to 6.3% in (Q2 20)

๐Ÿ”นThis number is "inflated" by the inclusion of VAS (logistics services to cross-border sellers) and handling fees
Read 8 tweets
8 Sep
๐Ÿงต
ย 
1๏ธโƒฃ While the narrative in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and other dev markets switches to a potential COVID vaccine, the reality for many emerging markets (EMs) including ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ + ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท is the wait may be significantly longer. Consumers and sellers are adapting to a new normal.
2๏ธโƒฃ The longer this period of uncertainty persists, the more entrenched digital consumer preferences will become, the more sellers (both small and large) will shift their focus to online marketplaces and distribution channels.
3๏ธโƒฃ Consumers in EMs are not just spending more online as forecasted in 2019, they're also buying into more categories online, including previously underpenetrated areas such as ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿฅ•๐Ÿฅ”(online and fresh) and non-alcoholic beverages.
Read 6 tweets
18 Aug
- some takeaways from the Q2โ€™20 con call:
1. โ€œprofound structural shiftโ€ across all markets which will be โ€œlong-lastingโ€
2. nearly 50m paying users / above 10% of total users (500m) for ๐ŸŽฎ
3. Free Fire ๐Ÿ”ฅ: peak DAUs of 100m + top grossing game in ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท and ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ

Continued....
4. partnering with Netflix/Money Heist for โ€œin game takeoverโ€
5. Acceleration in July for ๐ŸŽฎ - bodes well for Q3
6. ๐Ÿ› accelerating growth in all markets v Q1. More global and local brands joined.
7. Monetization ramped ๐Ÿ“ˆ despite SMB support program

Continued...
8. โ€œShopee Storiesโ€ launched for sellers
9. DFS ๐Ÿ’ณ - 50% growth v Q1, more adoption by Shopee users (45% of total orders in ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ)
10. Full year guidance: confident of โ€œout performanceโ€ (๐ŸŽฎ) but no change yet.
11. ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ / ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ growth in ๐Ÿ› high despite no lockdown

Continued....
Read 4 tweets
18 Aug
some takeaways from Q2:
1. DBNER at 183% ๐Ÿ˜ณ
2. Pricing model means the co grows with dev clients - eg Scener has grown 100x since March
3. 300+ use cases
4. Usage in ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ remained high after lockdown ended
5. Intโ€™l expansion continues - LatAm mentioned

Continued....
6. <20% bump in usage attributable to COVID + user pref for live video tools permanent
7. GM impacted by ๐ŸŒŽ expansion + infrastructure costs. Regional pricing to be rolled out. LT GM will ๐Ÿ“ˆ
8. Educ remains most promising use case + exam invigilation emerging

Continued...
9. Re ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ + ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ tensions: no impact currently / canโ€™t control
10. No +10% customers this Q
11. New platform tool roll out soon: โ€œXRAโ€ - measures performance/quality of platform.
12. S&M expense as % of revenue dropped significantly. Trend will continue

Continued....
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
whatโ€™s the current state of play in Indonesiaโ€™s crowded fintech/e-payments sector? โ€œAccording to Sea Groupโ€™s quarterly report, Shopee Indonesia registered more than 185 million orders in the first three months of this year, or a daily average of over 2 million orders....
.... , and more than 40% of Shopeeโ€™s gross orders in Indonesia were paid for through ShopeePay. That means ShopeePay has been able to gain high traction through e-commerce transactions alone.โ€
...like all other platforms, ShopeePay aims to rapidly expand its suite of online and offline third-party use cases and partnerships too. Today, you can easily find ShopeePayโ€™s promotional banners in shopping malls throughout Jakarta, side by side with GoPay and Ovoโ€™s own.....
Read 6 tweets
15 May
Shopee Live! is an in-app feature which is available in some SEA markets. Began as a livestream feature allowing sellers to interact with, show and sell products to consumers....How is the service evolving during Covid-19....?
....itโ€™s now a portal for live music performances(k-pop etc), cooking lessons, celebrity interactive chats, sessions with doctors, games and more....
Image
Read 4 tweets
5 May
Potential landmarks + incremental business model/ecosystem confirmation points for in the next 12 months + estimated % likelihood of โœ… (in no particular order):

(1) Digital banking license in Singapore ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ - expected โ˜€๏ธ 2020 (70%). ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ is the SE Asia financial hub and...
...would launch SeaMoney in the region

(2) Shopee breakeven in Indonesia ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ (50%) - the ๐Ÿ”‘ market. Would prove business model is viable at scale

(3) Dauntless mobile/global launch (50%) - would be the 2nd in-house title to go into Garenaโ€™s core markets.
(4) Free Fire ๐Ÿ“ˆuser growth in India and Middle East (80%) - these seem to be core growth markets for 2020 + continued growth here would show strength of franchise

(5) ShopeePay online + offline user growth (60%) - this will come at a cost (sales and marketing). But ๐Ÿ”‘ for DFS
Read 5 tweets
3 May
in Q4 2018 & Q1 2019, Shopee edged ahead of Lazada for site visits in SE Asia. Both recorded just under 200m visits. What about Q1 2020.....? Image
....in Q1 this year, Shopee recorded nearly 3x the traffic compared to a year earlier. In the same period, Lazada increased traffic by approx 50% Image
Shopeeโ€™s competitors have been reluctant to switch to lower margin staples (eg food, health products) - this has likely allowed Shopee to capture a bigger share of the first time e-commerce users.
Read 4 tweets