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Sep 29, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/9
From the #IES interims today ;

"Core sales markets identified; US West Coast, UK, Australia and South Africa"

Reading through the report, I can find only 1 direct ref. to why South Africa is now core but most interesting it is S.A. and not Africa in general.

#BMN
2/9
Given that in Sept IES signed an electrolyte rental agreement with BMN, it is important to keep tabs on their progress.

So its good to see that contracts running from closed through to "a strong chance of close in the immediate term" (upside), now number c. 57MWh.
3/9
That's good progress given the fact that the electrolyte rental agreement is only just being introduced and so has yet to really affect those numbers.

All that aside, my reading is that a clear move is being made to take advantage of the BMN cost advantages and
4/9
there's no better place to exploit that strength than in S.A.

We mustn't forget what Prrsident Ramphosa has recently doubled down on.

"energy self-generation projects above 1MW will be fast-tracked, to take the pressure off Eskom."

5/9
Here's that 1 direct ref. i was talking about.

"very high electricity tariffs are making a compelling case for such "grid defection."

Right now, IES numbers remain constrained but it is clear where we are now heading.

c. min. 285mtV in those 57MWh of IES contracts. Image
6/9
BMN have first refusal on vanadium supply to all IES projects, be it the rental agreement likely will seal many deals.

So we are talking c. 8% of expected BMN production in 2020 and that's before we add Enerox to the mix.

Not a bad start with exponential growth expected.
7/9
As IES says, these projects are being driven by such things as ;

"the need for rapid change to global electrical infrastructure, the amount of renewable generation that can be deployed is becoming increasingly limited without incorporating storage"

Add to this lower costs,
8/9
fear of blackouts, fear of climate change etc etc.

What we then see is a demand profil that in't being driven by economic success but by sheer need. So it sits outside any economic cycle, meaning it won't fall away.

There will come a point where the market will begin
9/9
to appreciate this diversification away from steel and the fact that BMN, with its first mover status, is/has created a vanadium business, that is shielded from the economic cycle of mining.

I don't intend joining for the rush, so i buy now and i wait.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Oct 7
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/
The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/
The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.

That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.

They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets

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