There is a very dangerous conversation going on suggesting that the path to beating COVID is through herd immunity. This is massively dangerous, and will lead to the death of millions of Americans. Facts matter. Here are the ones you need (thread):
1/ First, if you're not already following @gregggonsalves you should. He is an epidemiologist, spend decades studying AIDS and knows this stuff. See his thread on herd immunity here:
2/ The idea that we can choose to kill people or grow our economy is also wrong. Sweden, famously has tried to pursue herd immunity and only managed to kill more Swedes and hurt their economy. medpagetoday.com/infectiousdise…
3/ This frankly isn't surprising. If lots of your neighbors are getting sick and dying from a contagious disease, you will be inclined to stay indoors, avoid restaurants, theaters and retail shops. You cannot grow the economy in the midst of a raging public health crisis.
4/ But let us suppose for a moment that you are completely amoral and you view economic growth as paramount, no matter how many people die. How many people would have to get infected in order to achieve herd immunity in that dystopian future?
5/ To know that, you have to know whether the virus will involve and how durable your immunity is once infected (assuming you are one of the lucky ones who doesn't die.) As former CDC director Tom Frieden points out here, we don't know those answers. drtomfrieden.net/blog/a-dozen-o…
6/ However, we do have a few recent studies that should scare the pants off you. After a surge in cases in Brazil, scientists concluded that "...up to 70%..." of the population may need to be exposed to achieve herd immunity. reuters.com/article/us-hea…
7/ This value is confirmed by a similar outbreak in Qatar where scientists concluded that "some communities" "have reached or nearly reached" herd immunity at infection rates of 65 - 70%. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
8/ So now let's do some math. As of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins there are just over 7 million confirmed COVID cases in the United States, or ~2.2% of the population. Over 200,000 Americans have died, or 2.9% of those infected. coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
9/ To be sure, there are more infections we don't know about. And the excess deaths above average suggest that our death rate from COVID is also substantially undercounted. But let's go with the data we have. cnbc.com/2020/07/01/off…
10/ If we are to get to the ~65% infection rate that seems to be required for herd immunity, we will need to infect 65% x 332M, or 216 million Americans. Put another way, that's 209 million Americans more than we have already.
11/ Today, almost 3% of Americans who get infected are dying. But remember back in March when we were talking about the need to flatten the curve and hospitals were getting overloaded? The death rate then was >6%.
12/ We've learned a lot about ventilator management and treatment, but there is simply no way that a 30x increase in COVID infection rates doesn't overload hospitals. To assume death rates will be <6% is naive at best, evil at worst.
13/ 6% x 209 million = 12.5 million dead Americans. That is the population of New York and Los Angeles combined. That is the price you have to be willing to bear if you embrace herd immunity as a disease management strategy. It. Is. Brutal.
14/ And here's the thing: we don't have to do that. We can simply follow the examples that New Zealand, South Korea and so many other countries of done that has gotten the virus under control, even without a vaccine.
15/ Namely: Test. Contact Trace. Wear a mask. Social distance. Provide quarantine housing for those who are infected. We don't need to do any science to know whether that works - those countries have already proven it works.
16/ They did that from the start and felt much less economic pain because it's way cheaper to control the spread of a virus before it spreads. We should have, and if Trump hadn't politicized science we would have too.
17/ Is it hard to do that now? Of course it is. We all want our kids back in school and our business re-open. But that pain pales beside killing 12 million Americans.
18/ ANYONE suggesting that we should put short-term personal inconvenience ahead of public health is implicitly advocating for massive American deaths. Please don't do this. And please don't elevate voices who treat your life with such disregard. /fin
Postscript just shared with me from a friend who saw this thread. As the UK thinks about this question they are asking "what can we learn from the US debacle?". We didn't have to be the poster child in how not to handle a pandemic.
I’m not wild about the cynicism here, partly because it blames all of Congress for things the Republican majority is jamming through, but more because it assumes that our founders actually created a Representative democracy. Some morning musings: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…
1. To the first point, there are a host of issues that are squarely in the Democratic platform that regularly pass the House when Dems are in power but are blocked by Rs. Women’s rights, sensible gun control, campaign finance reform. All are supported by strong majorities.
2. There is no equivalent in today’s Republican platform but - and humor me on this before you blow up the mentions - that’s not entirely the Republican’s fault.
If you've tuned into CSPAN anytime in the last 2 hours and found yourself slapping the side of the TV, wondering why the screen isn't changing, here's what's happening...
1. Lots of us including yours truly got in really late last night to vote on a bill that would slash taxes for billionaires, kick 17 million people off their health insurance, force lots of kids, seniors and veterans to go hungry AND is really unpopular. It's an easy "no" vote.
2. BUT, Trump wants it. And he wants it before July 4th so that he can go out and tell the American people how much he hates veterans, seniors, children and other Americans who are not billionaires. And if Daddy wants something, Republicans will do it.
Because a number of folks keep asking, let’s talk about why the Democrats overwhelmingly voted to table Al Green’s motion to impeach Donald Trump. TL;DR: if you want Trump to be out of office ASAP, this was the right call, right now. Read on for the explanation…
1. Shortly after my wife and I got engaged we took a vacation to Wyoming. In the course of a horseback trip, our guide, upon learning of our upcoming nuptials, prior to offering me some advice said “I’ve been married 5 times, so I think I know a little something about women”.
2. In that vein, in my 6 years in Congress, I’ve seen 3 house impeachments (Trump 2x where I voted yes, Mayorkas 1x where I opposed). None were removed. So I think I know a little something about removing people from office…
This is not about the merits of Iran’s nuclear program. No president has the authority to bomb another country that does not pose an imminent threat to the US without the approval of Congress. This is an unambiguous impeachable offense.
I’m not saying we have the votes to impeach. I’m saying that you DO NOT do this without Congressional approval and if Johnson doesn’t grow a spine and learn to be a real boy tomorrow we have a BFing problem that puts our very Republic at risk.
To be clear, I do not dispute that Iran is a nuclear threat. That’s why Obama negotiated the JCPOA. But whether that is better resolved through diplomatic or military measures is not a decision that the executive branch has unilaterally.
This is the reason why our Constitution has an emoluments clause. And every day that the House GOP refuses to do any oversight of the Trump family's grift is another day that our Republic gets a little more fragile. Thread: ft.com/content/13a6ce…
1. I've been raising a stink about Sun and Trump ever since he fronted $30M to World Liberty Financial, Trump's shady AF defi platform. thedefiant.io/news/tokens/ju…
2. That "investment" triggered provisions in the initial World Liberty financing documents that allowed the Trump family to take cash out of the business. In exchange, Sun got a stake in tokens that cannot be sold and are controlled by the Trump family. Literally nothing.
Liz Truss lasted 49 days as Prime Minister. For context, that's less than 20% of the time that Kevin McCarthy lasted as speaker. And yet she - like him - thinks she has some wisdom to offer from that experience. (TL;DR: she's learned nothing.) washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…
As I said on the floor earlier this week, mediocre businesses hate competition for the same reason mediocre politicians hate DEI. Because they can't win in a meritocracy. But economic growth depends on competition - in labor and energy markets.
Under Bessent's watch, investors have fled US equities and treasuries for other countries. Saying that he should pro-growth is fine. But you should praise him (or Brexit supporters) for it in the same way you praise me for my ability to win the NBA slam dunk contest.