📍RE-INFECTION UPDATE: 20 cases of formal reinfection has now been documented (genome 🧬 sequence). Up +5 from just last week. Severity data shows 8 of 14 had a 2nd infection that’s more severe, 4 of 8 were moderate to severe; 3 of 14 less severe. #COVID19bnonews.com/index.php/2020…
2) The 4 newest reinfections were even confirmed by a very very detailed investigation to undercover them by a @Cornell and @WHO team in Qatar. This reinfection is real folks.
3) And by detailed investigation- they literally turned over every rock from 15,808 people with multiple test swabs... and went thru 243 people medical records and did detailed analysis of these potential reinfections and 🧬 to find the 4 new reinfection cases. HARDCORE!
4) HUGE— they calculated risk of reinfection:
📌reinfection risk estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%)
📌incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks.
5) Conclusions: “SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon suggestive of a strong protective immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least a few months post primary infection.”
6) Followup- someone asked: what does “PERSON-WEEKS” mean? I means total human ‘lived time’ of either 10,000 people followed alive for 1 week or 100 people followed for 100 weeks...
7) Thus, incidence rate of reinfection of 0.36 per 10,000 person-weeks equals about:
📌1 reinfection per 30,000 person weeks
📌1 reinfection per 1000 recovered patients followed for 30 weeks.
📌1 reinfection per 10000 recovered patients followed for 3 weeks
8) But thus also assumes active community infection rates of similar magnitude of course. If the epidemic disappears then the reinfection risk goes down to nothing too.
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📍Let this sink in—a world leading virologist @RickABright who has studied H5N1 bird flu says he is pausing all his milk consumption until he sees proof from both FDA & USDA that pasteurized milk is safe to drink. Pausing milk because of his concern over lack of transparent data.
Why are scientists pausing milk intake? Because there still isn’t enough data on safety of pasteurized milk. There has been data on other viruses in the past that survive pasteurization. See detailed thread 🧵 below.
Testing conducted by the FDA on pasteurized commercially purchased milk has found genetic evidence of the H5N1 bird flu virus. ➡️But the testing, done by PCR cannot distinguish between live virus or fragments of viruses that could have been killed by the pasteurization process.
The FDA said it has been trying to see if it could grow virus from milk found to contain evidence of H5N1, which is the gold standard test to see if there is viable virus in a product. 📌The FDA *does NOT explicitly say FDA laboratories were unable to find live virus in the milk samples, but nevertheless it does state that its belief that commercial, pasteurized milk is safe to consume has not been altered by these findings.
(Sound familiar? Just like blanket assuming a virus “isn’t airborne”, “cannot transmit without symptoms”, “no human to human transmission” errors during COVID). That said, I will am hopeful that no live virus will be found in confirmation. But let’s be precautious. statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n…
2) PPE and safety googles or face shield recommended for dairy farmers and anyone handling raw milk 🥛. Also they warn about poor fitting respirators for children (who may work near dairy— like I used to help on a dairy farm as a kid in rural Pa).
3) people working with cattle 🐄 should also “avoid eating drinking smoking chewing gum in contaminated areas or touching eyes.” And people exposed should wear PPE should be monitored for symptoms for 10 days.
📈Measles epidemic trajectory is worsening in the U.S.—it has NOT flattened as some claimed. The surge continues—comparison of newest versus recent outbreak graph. Majority are unvaccinated, but there’s enough unvaccinated in many clusters for outbreaks. cnn.com/health/measles…
2) here is another way to visualize the measles epidemic. Another annoying thing is that although 95% not double vaccinated, 5% of the previous 113 cases were vaccinated— which means that there is waning immunity or vaccine breakthrough with sufficiently big outbreak possible.
3) I specifically wanted about this issue that pockets of unvaccinated could still trigger outbreaks, and vaccine breakthroughs possible due to vaccine waning & if surrounded by pockets of low vaccinations. See my warning oped below. 👇
🐄—"Experts fear that H5N1 avian flu… may have been transmitted through a type of cattle feed called “poultry litter”—mix of poultry poop, spilled feed, feathers, and other waste scraped from the floors of industrial chicken and turkey production plants." telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Europe does not allow cattle to be fed poultry feed. US does. This helps explain why US is seeing a cow outbreak of avian flu.
3) CDC warns against chicken and bird exposures and direct contact with poop. Yet why the hell are we feeding cattle poultry litter??? Corporate farms are so stupid and greedy.
Global CO2 levels and temperatures. But but but we scientists are merely “fear mongering” according to deniers. How about just facing reality? How about precautionary warnings to protect human lives?
@ed_hawkins @MrMatthewTodd #climatecrisis
Oh this seems totally fine.
I think we are screwed at this point on limiting temperature rise by 1.5 C. It’ll still take a miracle to avoid 2 C.
📍BIRD HUNTING AVIAN FLU DEATH—WHO reports that a 21 year old young man with no underlying conditions suddenly died of #avianflu in Vietnam. He started with a cough/fever, but died 12 days later with severe pneumonia and ARDS. ➡️He had only gone bird hunting recently. BE CAREFUL.
2) "From 2003 to 25 March 2024, a total of 888 worldwide human cases of influenza A(H5N1), 463 deaths (52% CFR), reported to WHO from 23 countries. Almost all cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) linked to close contact with infected live or dead birds, or contaminated environments." who.int/emergencies/di…
3) It is interesting that WHO had to point out he had no contact with any sick or dead birds. Only hunting. And he had gone bird hunting the prior month in Feb 2024. And no other contact with people since. The latency period seems rather long.