Thread by @JSchanzer

(1) Today was a busy day. I’ve not had time to respond to the news about Hezbollah’s missile facilities that Israeli PM Netanyahu exposed today. But here goes...

(2) We at @FDD have been warning about the threat of Hezbollah’s precision guided munitions (PGM) project, sponsored by Iran, for quite some time.
Writing: commentarymagazine.com/articles/jonat…
Speaking: meforum.org/60908/schanzer…

(3) Israel has tried to prevent the missiles from being smuggled to Lebanon by way of Syria, where hundreds of targets have been destroyed in recent years. But it is clear that Hezbollah is now turning its efforts to indigenous production.

(4) Back in February, I heard from Israeli officials that Hezbollah likely had “ a few hundred” PGMs in its possession. Based on Netanyahu’a revelations and a subsequent release by the IDF, it seems there are many more. See video here: bit.ly/2HFuoiO

(5) In short, Israel is apparently losing the war between wars (WBW), and the decision to announce these missile sites is a sign of desperation. If they are not removed, Israel will likely see the need to act. These missiles have the potential to do immense damage.

(6) The next Lebanon war will be ugly. Hezbollah has 150k unguided rockets plus PGMs. The damage in Israel, primarily civilian targets, will be immense. Should Israel carry out a first strike, the damage to Lebanon will be immense because the weapons are stored among civilians.

(7) There is one way our of this without bloodshed. The international community can intervene. Lebanon needs financial help right now. The country is $93 billion in debt. The US, France and others can demand the removal of PGMs and other weapons as a condition for a bail-out.

(8) Should the international community look the other way, war will almost certainly come. The lethal Hezbollah PGM stockpile is growing under innumerable human shields. And Israel’s defense doctrine is clear, even as defense planners understand the PR fallout that may follow.

(9) In short, if France is serious. Or if the US, EU, or any other “stakeholder” wants to help — it should not be with a bailout. There must be a rescue deal that demands the removal of PGMs and other weapons. Failing that, the risk of an avoidable war grows every day (end).