1/Last 3-4 weeks the vibes about the election have significantly shifted. For three years I’ve been asking why people assumed that after 1-6, Dobbs, indictments, & cognitive decline that Trump would keep or even add to his 2020 voters. It’s always been a bad assumption
2/Part of the problem, of course, has been the media polls, which have seemed predicated on similar or greater Trump turnout (as if there are a lot of people who didn’t vote in 2016 or 2020 but now, after all that has happened since Nov 2020, finally felt strongly…
3/…about Trump that _this_ time they’ll vote for him). Those polls have also showed 3rd party candidates getting 20% of the vote, which was evidence that they didn’t like their choices & hadn’t confronted the necessity to make a choice from the actual candidates…
2/ FWIW, I doubt Biden is at 53% & leading by 11. Something more like 48-42 seems more plausible. But what I thing is happening—& I’ve talked to several pollsters & data people about this, it’s a mix mostly of what they’ve said—is public pollsters are worried…
3/…they’re not getting enough conservative Trump voters. That happened in 2016 & arguably did again in 2020. So, to compensate, I suspect they’re adjusting their samples to get more conservative samples of young & non-white voters. It’s a hedge against missing…
1/ A. Trump seems more cognitively healthy than Biden
B. 1-6/indictments/trials will have no effects on voters
C. Biden’s 5 pt margin will be wiped away by Biden voters now pro-Trump or think Biden is as bad as Trump
D. After underperforming in 2018/2020/2022 Repubs are now…
2/…seen by voters as a functional & serious party capable of governing
E. Dobbs no longer matters to women
F. There’s a large poll of non-voters who will vote in 2024 & favor Trump by 15 points (as in the Siena polls)
G. Trials won’t hamper Trump’s campaigning or…
3/…campaigning won’t matter
H. Trump’s financial situation won’t hurt his ability to campaign, or it won’t be a problem bc his businesses are healthy & not imperiled legally
I. RFKJr’s anti-vax position will peel off more Biden voters than Trump voters
J. Wealthy…
Weird to say it, but if he keeps the government open until January 2025, we may actually be better off w Speaker Jordan than w McCarthy or a Speaker Scalise. He may blow everything up, but from outside the Speaker’s office he would have anyway. Now he may see incentives in a CR/1
Jordan is the dog who caught the car. He’s in over his head. He’s the heckler about to be humiliated by the comedian. Whatever metaphor you want to use is fine as long as it conveys his achievement of going from outside rabble-rouser to Speaker will be disastrous for his career/2
Thing about people like Jordan, they have no convictions (the principles kind), so they’re not as capable of withstanding the abuse that comes w responsibilities. He’s a miscreant, but I’m not sure he has the demented resolve of a Gaetz, who’s willing to have Repubs hate him. /3
I’m not sure what Dems should do. But I think it’s unhelpful & bad political thinking to frame a vote to keep McCarthy as “saving McCarthy.” If they vote for him they’d be making a political calculation, & McCarthy the person wold be nearly irrelevant to that calculation /1
Fact is the best way for Dems to win the House next year is for Biden to win. Best thing the House could do is help Biden win. Most Americans will barely notice who’s the Speaker. But they might notice a resumption of the enhanced child tax credit. They might notice…/2
…other pot sweeteners Dems might conceivably get for propping up McCarthy
I’m not sure Dems can get anything meaningful for doing it. And nothing is of value if it can’t pass the Senate. But it would be political malpractice for Dems to not consider some kind…/3
Think of the worst people on Twitter. Your list may include some of these people:
Christopher Rufo
Bari Weiss
Jilani
Megyn Kelly
Sully
Shellenberger
Lee Fang
Trans haters
Anti-woke grifters
Rightwing operatives
Pay attention, bc they may be coming after your school board /1
I bring this up bc Tues there are elections, for school board in Evanston, & mayor in Chicago. In both cases there are connections to the dishonestly named Foundation Against Intolerance & Racism. In Evanston they’re likely running a stealth campaign…/2 fairforall.org
Chicago there’s an uproar bc Betsy DeVos, through one one the people on the FAIR board, is spending money to support Paul Vallas...who's running vs a former teacher supported by teachers unions
The name is BS. FAIR is actually a front organization founded by some guy in NYC…/3