Nate Cohn Profile picture
Sep 30, 2020 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
What a mess. There was no winner, certainly not the United States. And that makes Biden the winner. He's the frontrunner. It's Trump who needed the win, and I think most anyone would agree, as Chris Wallace said, that the president was largely responsible for the debate.
I don't think Biden was terribly strong, especially after the first half hour. He certainly didn't dispel concerns about age or something. But as I think back on the debate, I can't really think of any clip that's going to reflect too badly on Biden.
On the other hand, I can think of several clips that Trump's going to want back. The post-debate discussion is going to be about him, not Biden. And that's simply not what he needs.
And I think that's the easiest test here. The whole Biden strategy is for this race to be about Trump, and it's obvious the Trump campaign would like it to be about Biden. I don't think there's any doubt who 'won' by that measure
I did just watch the local ABC news segment here in NY and fwiw I thought the Biden 'shut up man' comment came across a lot worse as an isolated clip than as just another episode in an unrelenting mess
And surprisingly, the section when Trump refused to condemn white supremacists didn't make the segment at all

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Sep 25
There are signs that Trump's Electoral College is fading. In our current average, there's just a .7 point gap between the popular vote and the tipping point state
nytimes.com/2024/09/25/ups…
Our national Times/Siena polling this year shows a very 2022-like pattern by state.
This pattern holds (if a bit noisier ofc) in our three Harris-Trump polls. Image
I do think it's worth cautioning how tenuous Harris' EC-PV gains are - any meaningful error in MI/WI/PA would quickly restore much of Trump's advantage. This is not a robust edge (unlike Trump '16/20, where he still would have had a big edge even if WI, for ex, was D+5)
Read 5 tweets
Sep 20
One question I've seen throughout my replies: does a seemingly strong result for Harris in PA signal a 2020 polling error repeat?
That's obviously hard to say, but I want to flag one thing that caught my eye: our polls do not show Harris doing well with the white working class
In PA, it's Trump 61-Harris 34; nationally, it's Trump 67, Harris 30. In each case, that's >= 10 points worse than our final pre-election polls four years ago. It's also worse than the estimated Biden '20 finish with these groups.
This doesn't rule out a polling error, whether by chance or bias. The polls entered the field immediately after a debate; this is a classic environment for response bias (notably, she leads PA bc of gains with college educated whites, who may be most likely to react to news).
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10
The NYT/Siena poll is far from perfect - and in general I worry more about people expecting it to be perfect than I worry about it getting insufficient credit.
But the poll is very different from the others - and the differences help explain its record
Staying on the LV question: from its inception until last week's CNN/SSRS state polls (give them applause), the NYT/Siena poll was the only public poll incorporating self-reported vote intention and a model of turnout based no vote history
(in our data, someone's history of voting = more predictive of turnout than self-reported turnout intention -- though blending the two does best of all)
Read 6 tweets
Aug 23
FiveThirtyEight released a new model today, showing Harris with a 58% chance to win. But it's clearly a very different model and I think it's important to hear more about the differences
The previous model made Biden the favorite bc it gave 4:1 weight to fundamentals > polls -- a view that would make Trump stronger today and perhaps still ahead.
Now it gives 4:1 weight to polls > fundamentals -- which would have made Trump a large favorite before Image
Importantly, the methodology page implies that the model would give more weight to polls > fundamentals all along, so this isn't a function of being one month closer to the election Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 17
Kamala Harris puts the Sun Belt back in play, with the race tied across AZ, NC, NV, GA
AZ: Harris 50, Trump 45
GA: Trump 50, Harris 46
NV: Trump 48, Harris 47
NC: Harris 49, Trump 47
nytimes.com/2024/08/17/us/…
The poll basically shows the race returning to "normal," with Harris obtaining far larger margins among Black, Hispanic and young voters, propelling her to nearly a 10 pt gain across the four states
nytimes.com/2024/08/17/ups…
I probably wouldn't focus too much on the exact results by state. Individual state polls are a little noisy, and we were bound to get some head-scratchers eventually after conveniently getting identical 50-46 results in each of PA/MI/WI
Read 7 tweets
Aug 10
Response rates by party looked fundamentally normal, including in Pennsylvania where we have the best partisanship data out there
That said, it is worth noting that the sample does look a little blue. It's about a net-1 pt more Democratic, Dem-leaning and 2020 'Biden compared to the last time we polled these three states in May. This could be an indication of a shift in response patterns, though it could indicate change in attitude as wellImage
I do think the idea of a 'real' 1 pt change in Dem PID/Biden recall, etc., to be fairly plausible. Not only is that a fairly small shift, but no one can deny that the national political environment hasn't changed in a huge way over the last few weeks
Read 9 tweets

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