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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
@shashj
Sep 30, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Some excerpts from the House Armed Services Committee's "Future of Defense Task Force", published this week armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2… @HASCDemocrats @HASCRepublicans
"China represents the most significant economic and national security threat to the United States over the next 20 to 30 years ... Russia’s long-term economic forecast makes its global power likely to recede over the next 20 to 30 years." armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"Advancements in AI, biotechnology [etc] are making traditional battlefields and boundaries increasingly irrelevant. To remain competitive, the United States must prioritize the development of emerging technologies over ... legacy systems" armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"Using the Manhattan Project as a model, the United States must undertake and win the artificial intelligence race by leading in the invention and deployment of AI while establishing the standards for its public and private use" armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"Congress and the Department of Defense must ... require every Major Defense Acquisition Program to evaluate at least one AI or autonomous alternative prior to funding [and] require all new Major Defense Acquisition Programs to be AI-ready " armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"To compete against 21st century adversaries, Congress & [DoD] must identify, replace, and retire costly and ineffective legacy platforms. The Task Force recommends that Congress commission RAND Corporation (or similar entity) ...to study legacy platforms" armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"Because an engaged and informed electorate is essential for a republic to endure, the United States should expand voluntary National Service programs. Promoting volunteerism and active engagement in democracy bolsters our national security" armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"binary notions of war and peace are becoming antiquated. Future conflicts will be...waged in the gray zone, the nebulous battlespace below open combat, [w/] tactics such as economic coercion, cyber espionage, disinformation & unattributed military forces" armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Apr 3
An interesting essay on how US intelligence agencies judged Soviet intentions and capabilities & how that changed over time. "...probably incorrectly believing there was also a Soviet proclivity to prepare to launch a war if conditions seemed propitious" cia.gov/resources/csi/…Image
"...considerable [Soviet] exaggerations of Western bellicosity and capabilities, including planning for initiation of war. Soviet intel estimates, like those of the United States and NATO, were always predicated on initiation of war by the other side" cia.gov/resources/csi/…
'It is clear in retrospect that what had been needed in 1976 was not a hard-line Team B, but a more imaginative and far-seeing "Team C."' cia.gov/resources/csi/…Image
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Apr 2
I've been reviewing many of the past year's US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.
Norway intel service: "At the earliest, Moscow may be able to fully realise these plans [for military expansion e.g. Karelia] five to ten years after the war in Ukraine is over." In some areas Russia has "next to no reserves" for the next two years. etterretningstjenesten.no/publikasjoner/…Image
Denmark intel: "no threat" now & "some years" for new units to be ready, but Ru more willing to use force "if it believes...NATO...is unable to maintain its military superiority, does not respond to Ru mil activities or no longer presents a united front." fe-ddis.dk/globalassets/f…Image
Image
Read 22 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 26
I wrote a piece on China’s evolution into a bigger, more sophisticated and more threatening cyber power over the past decade, and particularly in the last few years. I also look at the pivotal role played by China’s private sector ecosystem in that shift. economist.com/china/2025/03/…
A few sources. Ciaran Martin’s very good survey from a few days ago gazumped mine. rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Recorded Future has tracked the shift in Chinese cyber activity with some good data. go.recordedfuture.com/hubfs/reports/…Image
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 24
Absolutely incredible. The Trump admin accidentally adds the editor of the Atlantic to a Signal group. Then Pete Hegseth sends him details of the US strikes on Yemen hours ahead of time incl. "precise information about weapons packages, targets & timing" theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Walz: "it will have to be the United States that reopens these shipping lanes [Red Sea]. Per the president’s request we are working with DOD and State to determine how to compile the cost associated and levy them on the Europeans" theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Stephen Miller: "...if Europe doesn’t remunerate [for Houthi strikes], then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return" theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 23
Witkoff on UK troop proposals. “it’s a combination of a posture and a pose and…simplistic. I think there’s this … sort of notion of we’ve all got to be like Winston Churchill, the Russians are gonna march across Europe. I think that’s preposterous” singjupost.com/transcript-of-…
Witkoff transcript is just eye popping: “Why would they want to absorb Ukraine? For what purpose, exactly? They don’t need to absorb Ukraine. That would be like occupying Gaza…They want stability there… But the Russians also have what they want” singjupost.com/transcript-of-…
Witkoff on US-Russia cooperation: “Share sea lanes, maybe send LNG gas into Europe together, maybe collaborate on AI together. If we can get past technology migration. Who doesn’t want to see a world like that?” singjupost.com/transcript-of-…
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Mar 22
America’s main negotiator with Russia appears to be completely captured by Russian propaganda. Witkoff: “there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.” pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…Image
The Russians must be dumbstruck they their opponents have managed to find perhaps the most gullible man on the planet. Putin “told me a story, Tucker, about how when the president was shot, he went to his local church and met with his priest and prayed.” pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…Image
‘"I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy. That is a complicated situation, that war, and all the ingredients that led up to it," Witkoff noted.’ pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…
Read 4 tweets

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