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Sep 30, 2020 16 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/6
Starting with #YU, one of my more speculative investments and I am delighted by the positive messages running through today's report.

A 31% reduction in EBITDA losses (£1.846m) on 19% less revenues but ;

2/6
"The estimated adverse impact on H1 2020 Adjusted EBITDA as a consequence of all of the above (Covid) is £1.6m."

So at £45m revenues, YU is almost at EBITDA breakeven. Big improvement.

"cash at 31 Dec 2020 forecast to be significantly above the 31 Dec 2019 balance of £2.4m"
3/6
When the business starts to accelerate its earnings growth, of which there is clear evidence for 2021, then we could well see profitability, especially when more value accretive acquisitions are added to the YU stable.
4/6
I talked previously about the positive impact of the Bristol Energy acquisition and that it is clear that more acquisitions are coming.

Well the CEO couldn't be more clear.

40% increase in meters, no noticeable additional cost burden, immediately cash generative. . . Image
5/6
and most importantly he says "I look forward to repeating this exercise shortly."

So at least one more acquisition on the way and with it further impact on the already very positive future finance figs.

Lots more to say but that's for later. My main concerns on energy...
6/6
...hedging and Covid affected revenues have been more than alleviated.

Yes we still have the Winter to get through but YU looks on really solid ground now and is a big recovery play for 2021/22.
6A
In 2019 #YU achieved £112m in revenues.

18th Sept 2019 RNS ;
"At 31 August 2019, contracted revenue for FY 2020 in excess of £65m"

Today's RNS ;
"at 31 August 2020, estimates the revenue achievable from its forward contract book to impact FY 2021 to be £71.7m"
6B
This has been assisted by ;
"The Group's average monthly bookings (being the annualised revenue booked on new contracts) significantly increased in H1 2020 to £6.2m (a 94% increase on H1 2019 bookings of £3.2m)."

So effectively double.

23rd Jan FY 2019 trading update. Image
6C
There we see that H2 2019 bookings fig. was just £5.1m and the FY 2019 bookings fig £4.2m, with follow through to £112m.

Today's RNS goes further ;

"the Board anticipates H2 2020 average monthly bookings to be significantly above the £6.2m achieved in H1 2020." Image
6D
Whilst respecting the possibility of the impact from further Covid risk, when free of Covid, YU can break even at EBITDA level on just c. £45m in H1 revenues.

Right now (limited further Covid impact) it looks like the business is heading for a FY2021 revenue fig,
6E
considerable above that generated in 2019 (£112m), which intensifies my belief that they can turn a profit in 2021.

None of which allows for a further acquisition, which is clearly on the cards.
6F
Prior to its accounting indiscretions in Oct 2018, YU was trading at a minimum of 600p, based on circa the same shares in issue.

Back in July 2018, when YU was still loss making and reporting c. £82m in expected revenues, it was trading at 960p
6G
The rebuilding process is exactly that, a process, that takes time.

However, I truly think they are on their way now, even with Covid in toe and there's no reason why they can't reach those dizzy heights and beyond, once again.
6H
More from my #YU review.

When YU completed their Bristol Energy acquisition on 10th Aug, they reported it "will add c. 4,000 meter points to Yü Group's current meter portfolio of c. 9,800."

So 13,800 in total.

Jump forward to today's announcement and ;
6I
"we now expect run rate meter point growth to accelerate to circa 17,000 by FY 2020 and for that positive momentum to continue in to FY 2021 and beyond."

That's a further 23% increase post acquisition and if indeed true, achieved in just 4.5 months.
6J
Take out the acquisition and we are talking a 32% increase on YU installed meters, which again signals their renewed drive (post deliberate new business slow down in 2018/19) and demonstrates where this is now heading.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Oct 7
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/
The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/
The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.

That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.

They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets

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