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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
@shashj
Sep 30, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Striking how much time UK chief of defence staff spends on Chinese military capabilities and practices in @Policy_Exchange speech unveiling new integrated operating concept. Cites "Unrestricted Warfare" by two PLA officers. Also name-checks @ASPI_org and @WarOnTheRocks.
Carter: new UK integrated operating concept (IOC): distinguishes between "operating" and "warfighting", and establishes need to compete below threshold of war to deter war. Requires "a campaign posture including continuous operating on our terms and in places of our choosing".
Carter: new UK "posture will be engaged and forward-deployed. Armed forces much more in use, rather that dedicated solely for contingencies, with training and exercises delivered as operations ... the willingness to commit decisively hard capability is essential ..."
Carter: Warfare increasingly "about hiding and finding", enabled by "digital backbone" into which you plug all "sensors, effectors and deciders". "Industrial age cap will increasingly have to make their sunset ... trick is how you find a path through the night".

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 7
Listening to Richard Moore & Bill Burns at Kenwood House.
Image
Burns: “we have no better foreign partner in the world than SIS” Image
Moore says CIA and SIS follow the “best athlete model”- whoever is best placed to go after a target, does so. Image
Read 17 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 5
I wrote this week on the latest skirmishing in the crypto wars. End-to-end encryption has conquered the world. Governments continue to push back in defence of lawful intercept. But the debate around technical solutions has changed little in years.
economist.com/international/…
A few sources for this piece. In 2018 & 2021 a pair of GCHQ officials proposed various solutions for reconciling gov't interception with end-to-end encryption. The first piece proposed that govts could be added secretly to particular communications:
lawfaremedia.org/article/princi…
The second proposed various types of "client-side scanning"—automatically comparing content on a device to a stored library of illegal material—as a way of detecting child sexual abuse material on social media sites without intercepting content in transit. arxiv.org/abs/2207.09506
Read 12 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 13
A CNAS tabletop exercise. "This study finds that a hypothetical, protracted U.S.-PRC conflict creates conditions under which nonstrategic nuclear weapons use is both appealing to the PRC and difficult to manage for the United States" cnas.org/publications/r…
"once nuclear escalation in the Indo-Pacific occurs, reciprocal tactical nuclear exchanges may continue, but not necessarily lead to general nuclear war." cnas.org/publications/r…
"These findings reflect the fundamental differences of deterrence in the emerging Indo-Pacific era, where distinct geography, targets, and capabilities make limited nuclear escalation potentially more tolerable than in the Cold War era." cnas.org/publications/r…
Read 13 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 13
“Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe with nuclear-capable missiles in a potential conflict with Nato, according to secret files…Maps of targets as far-flung as the west coast of France and Barrow-in-Furness” on.ft.com/4fzYtM2
‘The document notes the navy’s “high manoeuvrability” allows it to conduct “sudden & pre-emptive blows” and “massive missile strikes . . . from various directions”. It adds that nuclear weapons are “as a rule” designated for use “in combination with other means of destruction”..’
‘The presentation also references the option of a so-called demonstration strike — detonating a nuclear weapon in a remote area “in a period of immediate threat of aggression” before an actual conflict to scare western countries.’ on.ft.com/4fzYtM2
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 10
Kommersant reports from Kursk. General sense being chaos & abandonment by Moscow. “I want to understand where our state is at all? Where is the administration? I wish they could talk to us. We don't know anything at all… there's no one.” kommersant.ru/doc/6890223
“Why wasn't there a fucking evacuation? Everyone ran away as best they could - under fire, under kamikaze drones! Why did they lie on TV to the last? They said that the situation was stable” kommersant.ru/doc/6890223?fr…
“Tell the state that we want to see them. Let the state tell us the truth - what should we expect? Will we return to our homes or can we say goodbye to them? Well, at least some crumb of honest information from the state!” kommersant.ru/doc/6890223?fr…
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 8
Struck by the fact that we can barely work out with confidence which Ukrainian brigades & what proportion of them are properly in in Kursk, let alone if anything is in reserve & what precisely is happening. OSINT can be absolutely magical, and sometimes incredibly limiting.
And so beware wild evidence free speculation however enjoyable it feels. Image
This seems to have been taken as a complaint. It is not. It is a comparison between the relatively high levels of battlefield transparency we have become used to, esp. when front lines are static, to when they become fluid & when Ukr prioritises surprise.
Read 4 tweets

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