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Matt Grossmann Profile picture
@MattGrossmann
Sep 30, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
CBS/YouGov post-debate poll had Biden winning 48-41% but more Reps calling it a tie (& improved opinion of Biden & decreased of Trump)

CNN/SSRS had Biden winning 60-28%! That's a big difference. Is it due to repeatedly polled (& solid) YouGov panelists? Other method differences?
538/Ipsos has a post-debate result closer to CNN. 60-33% Biden on best performance, but little movement on favorability or candidate preferences
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-de…
DFP poll on who won the debate is 52-39% Biden (weighted to likely voters):
vox.com/2020/9/30/2149…
Average margin across the four "who won" polls was +20 Biden (including the CNN phone poll where more Dems responded). But there's not much sign of a likely race shake up.
Another post-debate poll has Biden winning 50-34%, with impressions of Trump’s health & communication skills dropping & wide agreement Trump was interrupting more:
morningconsult.com/2020/10/01/deb…
More people claimed to like the debate than I expected, especially men
& another poll has Biden winning the debate 53-29%, with only 11% saying Biden was below expectations:
cnbc.com/2020/10/01/bid…

This brings the average margin of "who won" polls to Biden +20 (across 6 polls)

But this poll had Biden up 54-41% overall

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More from @MattGrossmann

Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Aug 17
Harris is doing much better than Biden & than pre-dropout polls. Some potential nudges to theory that may provoke:
1) candidate factors still matter & aren't just due to quality or moderation
2) how incumbent parties are judged economically is interpreted through the candidate
3) undecided & temporary 3rd party voters are real; many swing voters don't pay attention until it draws them
4) both mainstream & new media tenor matter, can switch quickly & then be self-reinforcing
5) when voters don't know much about candidates, impressions can change quickly
6) women & minority candidates no longer face any immediate net disadvantage
7) abnormal demographic trends have capacity to return to normal but not due to polling error
8) some disapproval (I won't listen to them anymore) is stronger than others (I haven't heard anything good)
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Jan 2
Our new paper "Building Back with Partial Praise: Public Opinion on the Biden Agenda" for #SPSA2024


Build Back Better's modest popularity was mostly but not entirely a product of mixed views on its provisions. The Inflation Reduction Act was more popular.matthewg.org/IRA_BBB_Southe…
The eventual law (IRA) was more popular than BBB while it was being debated. Describing BBB only with Biden & name was less popular than outlining its provisions, but not after voters evaluated provisions. Provision information did not affect IRA opinion.
matthewg.org/IRA_BBB_Southe…
Image
Support for both BBB & IRA was higher when voters supported more of their provisions. But voters appeared to hold BBB to a higher standard, needing to support most of its provisions to support the package as a whole
matthewg.org/IRA_BBB_Southe…
Image
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
May 9, 2023
Biden is not preparing to act alone & default is very unlikely, as is a long-term clean debt limit lift. Whatever the posturing, we are mostly waiting on the terms of Dems' concessions. That likely includes budget caps & more. We may get no hints today but structure is mostly set
Potential but not probable hints today would include:
1) assignment of people to spearhead budget caps dissuasion
2) Dem comments on Rep concessions with varying degrees of disdain (eg non-starter vs we can work on)
3) talk of debt limit extension timing with further budget talks
Possible Dems may be able to delay concessions (or give some now & more later), but won't get limit past election without concessions. Even (unlikely) unilateral action would really be a delay; they'd still be negotiating under threat:
Read 6 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022
State government policy becomes consistent with state public opinion as conservative & liberal states elect Republican & Democratic officials & as officials adjust policy to public opinion

Highly recommend Dynamic Democracy by @cwarshaw & @DevinCaughey
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…
State public opinion has grown more liberal over the long-term on racial issues, more liberal over the short term on cultural issues, & moved up & down on economic issues after a move right

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book… Image
State public policy has grown consistently more liberal on economic & cultural policies over time, but states have begun to diverge more in recent years & to be relatively more liberal or conservative based on their partisanship & public opinion

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book… Image
Read 7 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Oct 12, 2022
Highly recommend “The Bitter End” by @johnmsides @vavreck @CTausanovitch
on the 2020 election, a campaign where not much changed opinions despite lots of big news

hookedlansing.com/book/978069121…

Here is the relatively stable horse race & consistent Biden favorability advantage
1/n
The primary race was, by the end, less stable. But Biden & Sanders drew most coverage & public support for most of the campaign. & Biden won with a similar coalition as Clinton: older & more partisan voters & Black voters

The Bitter End
hookedlansing.com/book/978069121…
2/n
Biden was judged ideologically closer to Dem voters. But many voters weren’t judging candidates ideologically. Only 52% placed both candidates & had Sanders to left of Biden; 21% saw no difference: 10% reversed it; rest couldn’t place

The Bitter End
hookedlansing.com/book/978069121…
3/n
Read 6 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Sep 23, 2022
Americans increasingly perceive important differences between the parties

Fun new @electionstudies charts:
isr-anesweb.isr.umich.edu/ANES_Data_Tool…
Americans increasingly perceive the Republican Party as the more conservative party but some Americans remain ideologically confused
isr-anesweb.isr.umich.edu/ANES_Data_Tool…
Americans are also reporting more frequent conversations about politics since Trump, with only 9% of Americans saying they are not talking at all about politics with friends or family
Read 4 tweets

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