Christabel Cooper Profile picture
Sep 30, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
THREAD: Seeing a lot of debate about a “herd immunity” strategy proposed by the likes of Sunestra Gupta and Carl Heneghan to fight Covid.

Not only is this policy wrong (below @chrischirp explains why) - it’s also deeply unpopular with the public. politics.co.uk/comment-analys… 1/9
There's very consistent polling across the summer from @OpiniumResearch showing that only a small minority (10-12%) thought we were moving out of lockdown too quickly.

50% of respondents believed the government was ending lockdown too quickly. 2/9
@OpiniumResearch polling on 23rd Sept found the new restrictions introduced last week are also popular, only 16% think they are too strict

The polling also showed:
76% - are quite worried or very worried about Covid
23% - are not that worried or not worried about Covid

3/9
This translates into behaviour. Excluding those who never go to bars or restaurants, nearly three quarters are visiting them less than they did before the Covid crisis. 4/9
There was also a lot of fuss about wearing masks.

Yet on 2nd-3rd Sept @YouGov found:
Only 6% unwilling to wear a mask when shopping
10% unwilling to wear a mask on public transport
11% unwilling to wear a mask in a taxi/Uber
5/9
And opinions about lockdown etc don’t really fall into a “culture war” narrative, as has happened in America. It’s true that Leave voters are more likely to think that the government is over-reacting to Covid, but an overwhelming majority of Leavers *don't* think this. 6/9
This isn’t surprising given that Leave voters tend to be older than Remain voters. People aged 65+ are (not surprisingly) more worried about Covid and less likely to think the government is over-reacting than younger people. (Data from @OpiniumResearch ) 7/9
So given that the overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion argues against a “herd immunity” strategy and the vast majority of the public support current measures or think they aren’t going far enough, it’s depressing that Gupta, Heneghan et al get so much attention. 8/9
Ultimately it’s because a small, unrepresentative elite in the right-wing media, *and* a significant number of Tory MPs happen to like their libertarian, laissez-faire philosophy. But let’s remember that neither the vast majority of scientists, nor the general public agree. 9/9

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More from @ChristabelCoops

Feb 11
It’s a year since I took up the fantastic role of Director of Research at @labourtogether. Until then, I’d not had a formal job in politics – I’ve spent most of my career doing “normal” jobs in “normal” workplaces. Some reflections on the disconnect between those two worlds. 1/
Political actors will acknowledge that most people don’t pay much attention to politics, but I think it’s hard for them to understand the true extent of this. I've worked mostly in offices, mainly with graduates. You still only get 1 or 2 people who regularly discuss politics. 2/
People are much more interested in talking to their colleagues about friends, family, their co-workers, Chelsea’s new left back, handbags, holidays, the menu change at the local Indian… *anything* other than politics. This was true even at the height of the Brexit Wars. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jan 19
Appeared on the @politicshome podcast yesterday alongside Reform Deputy Leader Ben Habib. Which was both a lot more fun than I had assumed, and also very insightful about Reform...
First, they really are out to get the Tories. An electoral pact was *firmly* ruled out. 1/
Second, Ben Habib claimed Reform weren't "right wing". But that's not true. And not just on culture and immigration, but on economics. They want to slash tax and cut welfare to force people back to work. No need to put more £ into the NHS. 2/
And this is why Reform is taking so few voters from Labour. 1% of 2019 Labour voters have switched to Reform, compared to 18% of 2019 Con voters in the latest @yougov poll. Even only around 2% of 2017 Labour voters would now vote for Reform. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16, 2023
Our new polling at @labourtogether shows that including the Rwanda scheme in the government's asylum policies makes the overall package *less* popular, which is... interesting... given how hard the Tories are continuing to push this policy (or at least be seen to push it). 1/
We showed one group of respondents a set of Tory policies on asylum (taken from the Conservative website) which included Rwanda. Net approval was +6 points.
Another group saw the policies without Rwanda. Net approval was +18 points. 2/
We also showed respondents Labour's five point plan on asylum. Net approval was a huge +40 points. And head to head with the Tory plan, voters preferred Labour's plan by 15 points.

Our polling busts several persistent myths on public attitudes to migration. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Oct 15, 2022
Possibly unpopular opinion, but Brexit did not cause Truss. She's actually the first *post* Brexit PM and that's what undid her. Her ideology was a shift away from the values/Brexit divide and back to a political debate around tax, spending and the size and role of the state. 1/
Hence her big attempt to create an electorally advantageous "us and them" dividing line was based on the supposed existence of an "anti-growth coalition" which opposed her economic plans, rather than focusing on Brexit divisions, "woke" or other cultural issues. 2/
The problem for the Tories is that a politics that focuses on economics, means that they find themselves on the wrong side of majority opinion. This excellent chart from @UKandEU shows how much more right-wing Tory MPs and members are, than even the average *Tory* voter. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Sep 17, 2022
A rare disagreement with @johnmcternan. He's right that to push back against Truss, Labour needs to talk about growth more than tax and redistribution. But where I disagree is that I don’t see Trussonomics as a big threat to Labour. There are 3 reasons.🧵
unherd.com/2022/09/has-li…
(1) It’s poor politics. It’s difficult to see how uncapping banker’s bonuses when nurses are considering striking over low pay, plus the refusal to back a windfall tax when 4 out of 5 voters (including Tory voters) support it, is a popular approach.
yougov.co.uk/topics/utiliti…
I’m not sure the public link either of those things to economic growth - if they do then it will be seen as the wrong kind of growth. Policies which help businesses (assuming this will drive growth) rather than helping people, run up against some stark public attitudes.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 3, 2022
This piece from @jdportes is quietly devastating.
The government could have borrowed much more 2010-2015, with near zero interest rates. They could have alleviated poverty and shored up public services. Instead, Truss is saying she will borrow now as interest rates are rising. 1/
Which is going to be much more problematic and basically means that she probably can't afford all of (a) tax cuts (b) the inevitable package of support for households and businesses in the energy crisis and (c) to support public services, particularly the NHS and social care. 2/
The NHS faces a potentially catastrophic winter, a combination of a cold winter, flu and another Covid wave could overwhelm it.

Cameron could have created more resilience for health and particularly for social care, at a time when government had much more leeway to borrow. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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