It’s a year since I took up the fantastic role of Director of Research at @labourtogether. Until then, I’d not had a formal job in politics – I’ve spent most of my career doing “normal” jobs in “normal” workplaces. Some reflections on the disconnect between those two worlds. 1/ Political actors will acknowledge that most people don’t pay much attention to politics, but I think it’s hard for them to understand the true extent of this. I've worked mostly in offices, mainly with graduates. You still only get 1 or 2 people who regularly discuss politics. 2/

Appeared on the @politicshome podcast yesterday alongside Reform Deputy Leader Ben Habib. Which was both a lot more fun than I had assumed, and also very insightful about Reform...
First, they really are out to get the Tories. An electoral pact was *firmly* ruled out. 1/

https://twitter.com/Alain_Tolhurst/status/1748306634412044786

Second, Ben Habib claimed Reform weren't "right wing". But that's not true. And not just on culture and immigration, but on economics. They want to slash tax and cut welfare to force people back to work. No need to put more £ into the NHS. 2/

Our new polling at @labourtogether shows that including the Rwanda scheme in the government's asylum policies makes the overall package *less* popular, which is... interesting... given how hard the Tories are continuing to push this policy (or at least be seen to push it). 1/ We showed one group of respondents a set of Tory policies on asylum (taken from the Conservative website) which included Rwanda. Net approval was +6 points.
Another group saw the policies without Rwanda. Net approval was +18 points. 2/

Possibly unpopular opinion, but Brexit did not cause Truss. She's actually the first *post* Brexit PM and that's what undid her. Her ideology was a shift away from the values/Brexit divide and back to a political debate around tax, spending and the size and role of the state. 1/ Hence her big attempt to create an electorally advantageous "us and them" dividing line was based on the supposed existence of an "anti-growth coalition" which opposed her economic plans, rather than focusing on Brexit divisions, "woke" or other cultural issues. 2/

A rare disagreement with @johnmcternan. He's right that to push back against Truss, Labour needs to talk about growth more than tax and redistribution. But where I disagree is that I don’t see Trussonomics as a big threat to Labour. There are 3 reasons.🧵
unherd.com/2022/09/has-li… (1) It’s poor politics. It’s difficult to see how uncapping banker’s bonuses when nurses are considering striking over low pay, plus the refusal to back a windfall tax when 4 out of 5 voters (including Tory voters) support it, is a popular approach.
yougov.co.uk/topics/utiliti…

This piece from @jdportes is quietly devastating.
The government could have borrowed much more 2010-2015, with near zero interest rates. They could have alleviated poverty and shored up public services. Instead, Truss is saying she will borrow now as interest rates are rising. 1/

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1565798016363409408

Which is going to be much more problematic and basically means that she probably can't afford all of (a) tax cuts (b) the inevitable package of support for households and businesses in the energy crisis and (c) to support public services, particularly the NHS and social care. 2/

The "Great Realignment" was a real phenomenon, but the main effect was to turn some solid Labour voters (and increasingly some solid Con voters) into swing voters, *not* to effect a permanent transfer from Lab to Con. The Tories have an advantage in "value" centric elections. 1/

https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1561838050656899074

Like 2019 where the main issues were Brexit and Corbyn's character. No amount of Labour doubling down on left economics could compensate (and almost certainly alienated some voters). But the same is true of the right's attempt to double down on "woke". If the next election...

Deeply depressing thread on education and inequality from the IFS. Our education system is too rigid, offers too few second chances, and perpetuates inequality. This leads to a huge waste of talent, disadvantaging both individuals and the UK as a whole. 1/

https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1559450176867139585

The report shows that though educational standards are overall improving, better schools don't remove the gap in qualifications between kids from wealthier and poorer families. So what we should be doing is making sure that gap doesn't lead to lower earnings throughout life. 2/

Politically, Labour looks to have played a blinder with their energy cap policy.

Economically - along with many other commentators, I think it's sub-optimal. BUT the objections to the policy are complex and the arguments in its favour, are simple. 1/

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1559197050037846017

This is an equation that Labour has found itself on the wrong side of too many times, most notably in 2008 when Cameron and Osborne advocated the wrong policies, but put forward the simpler and better narrative and won the 2010 election. See also the Brexit referendum. 2/

There's been surprise in the UK at the high level of support that Marine Le Pen gets from young people, given that UK, right-wing parties do badly with this group. This isn't just because French youngsters are more right-wing, it's also about turnout. 1/

https://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1513410402453012482?s=20&t=4rf89hi0llECMbwX6OO4Cg

Traditional political surveys tend to disproportionately cover people who are more likely to vote. The @BESResearch Probability Study gives a more accurate picture of the total electorate even those who will never vote, and we know younger people are less likely to vote. 2/

I will start becoming unguardedly optimistic about Labour forming the next government only when three things happen: (a) sustained, substantial lead in headline voting intention, (b) Starmer leading whoever is Tory leader as best PM,(c) Labour leading on economic competence. 1/ On (a) looking good right now, but we need to wait and see whether this is just a short term response to Partygate etc (b) looking good right now, but the Tories might ditch Boris (though I'm personally doubtful this solves many of their problems). It's worth noting...2/

So. I read THE PAMPHLET.

Much of it is really good, particularly the deconstruction of why the Tory government has failed. And I agree with the 10 principles Keir sets out at the end.

BUT. They just don't really differentiate Lab from other parties. 1/
fabians.org.uk/publication/th… Labour isn't up against a committed Thatcherite Tory party screaming "Greed is Good" or "There's No Such Thing as Society", it's facing a much more ideologically flexible outfit which is capable of co-opting the language of community and government intervention in markets. 2/

A thread inspired by an @AyoCaesar comment at @lukecooper100's book launch last week - on housing and voting Tory.

So being a homeowner *does* make you more likely to vote Tory vs being a private tenant. It's true that homeowners are older, and older people tend to vote Tory. 1/ But its also true that when you break down the numbers by age, homeowners are still more likely to have voted Tory in 2019 than private renters - particularly among younger people, (Source Wave 20 @BESResearch ) 2/

Whatever your view on when/how restrictions should be eased, it seems clear that the government's announcement yesterday wasn't driven by health *or* economics, but by raw ideology.

Take masks - there isn't an economic hit from continuing to wear masks. If anything... 1/ ... it probably helps given there are many people who would be worried about travelling on public transport or going to crowded shops if a lot of people weren't wearing them. So why make them voluntary?

Also - what happened to "data not dates"? Why announce this now? 2/

On the face of it an Opposition party holding onto a seat by the thinnest of margins in a by-election isn't a surprise.

But there are 2 things that make Batley & Spen more interesting and positive for Labour. (1) the context of the Hartlepool by-election (2) Galloway. 1/ In Hartlepool, a large number of people who had voted for the Brexit Party in GE2019 must have switched directly to the Tories. The Cons gained *more* votes in the recent by-election than they had done in the GE (turnout fell from 58% in the GE to 43% in the by-election). 2/

The different shades of Blue Wall, and how they're helpful to Labour. A thread.

There's a lot of talk about the so-called "Blue Wall". I'm using the term to loosely mean "seats where the Leave-Remain/"culture war" divides work against the Tories rather than for them." 1/ Chesham & Amersham was such a seat.

Local factors clearly played a role in the Tory defeat, but C&A voted to Remain by 55%/45% and has a high number of graduates (strongly linked to holding socially liberal views). It's also very affluent which made it a hard target for Lab.2/

The Chesham & Amersham result doesn't mean that a mythical Tory "Blue Wall" is about to collapse. BUT it exposes a split in the Tory coalition and could be hugely significant.

In the last few years we've talked *a lot* about Labour Leavers, but less about Tory Remainers. 1/ At GE2019 the Tory Remainers were the dog that didn't bark (very loudly).

66% Remain Tory 2017 voters stuck with the Tories
52% Leave Labour 2017 voters stuck with Lab

This differential helped deliver the Tory majority. But around 30% of Tory Remainers did switch to the LDs. 2/

Number (2) is *such* an important point. There's clearly a government-backed narrative that the India variant is only a problem for unvaxxed people. Yet SAGE's models show that if there is a surge, most deaths/hospitalisations will be in people who HAVE been vaxxed. How? 1/

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1394226790680367108

Vaccines are brilliant, but they're not 100% effective. There's still a small probability that a vaxxed person who gets exposed to Covid, can catch the disease and be seriously ill with it. That risk is about 20x larger for an unvaxxed person, but it's still there. 2/

Whilst we're back on the "Labour has lost the working classes" debate - a reminder that Lab is still the most popular party with people on low incomes *of working age*. The "working age" bit is crucial.

Here's the GE2019 vote by household income including retired people. 1/ (source @BESResearch)

Looks like Labour does well with the very poorest but the Tories are picking up most of the votes from people on below average incomes, and the gap between Lab and Con is lowest amongst higher earners.

But here's the graph excluding retired people. 2/

There’s some dismay in Labour ranks about polls like this, showing Lab several points behind the Tories. So here’s a thread about Covid and the natural advantages of incumbency.

In 8 of the last 11 elections, the government incumbent won. 1/

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1376843718632869888?s=20

The 3 times when the Opposition won were after serious crises which (rightly or wrongly) damaged the government’s reputation (Winter of Discontent, Black Wednesday, Global Financial Crisis).
Many expected the Covid crisis would be a similar moment for the Tories. 2/

THREAD on young people, voting and itsimpact on policy.

We know that young people are less likely to vote than older people. This is turnout calculated from the 2019 Post-Election Probability Survey from @BESResearch:

Under 35: 55%
35 – 64: 68%
65 plus: 77%

1/ A report on Youth and Satisfaction with Democracy from the Centre for the Future of Democracy, showed that young people in a number of countries have greater levels of dissatisfaction with democracy than older generations. 2/
cam.ac.uk/system/files/y…