Ed Conway Profile picture
Sep 30, 2020 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
One problem with using #COVID19 trajectories to work out where we may be heading is question marks over the data - something illustrated brilliantly by this chart via @AlexSelbyB. Official case numbers look v v high now, but we weren't measuring cases v well back in spring. Image
Upshot is charts of cases alone are of limited use - and this is before you get to questions about whether the testing figs are reliable. We could look at positive tests as % of total (chart 2). It adjusts for fact we're doing more testing. But is that early data reliable? ImageImage
The best measure of #COVID19 prevalence in England is prob the @ONS infection survey but again: it started after the peak. And right now what we REALLY need to gauge is not post peak but the run up to the peak Image
The great unknown (and there are theories abt this but not much data) is whether the bit BEFORE the data we have on cases/positivity looked anything like what we are going through NOW. To me - someone watching this purely through a data prism - this seems really, really important Image
Now, eventually we will know because the early data on deaths are far more reliable (for all their faults) than the case data. The problem is by the time we notice we're on the same path it will almost certainly be too late. So we certainly shouldn't just focus on deaths.
What about hospitalisations data? Again, a bit patchy since there's a big gap at that start which begs the same question again: what was happening in those early weeks? Is it similar to what we're going through now or v different? Image
All of these unsettling gaps are why it's also worth looking not just at our own past but at our plausible future. This is why we focused so much on Spanish/Italian trajectories last time around. The disease seems to spread in the same way in most medium-sized countries.
Sadly last time around the most reliable cross-country comparisons were of deaths because of those 👆data gaps. This time around the case data is better (not brilliant, but better), so we can compare our trajectory to other countries going through similar outbreaks. Image
All of which is a long winded way of explaining why I keep updating this chart. And why I was a bit sceptical about @uksciencechief's chart last week suggesting the UK outbreak could go in a v different direction. From early on in this outbreak we've been following France/Spain Image
If this continues - and it's a big if, but it is what happened in the last outbreak and seems to be happening thus far this time too - we can potentially look at other data from France/Spain to try to fill in those gaps in the cases/hospitalisations charts above...
So far the paths they're following in France/Spain look different to spring. Look at hospitalisations. Crucially, these data should be more reliable at depicting those intense spring months than case data. And the increase in recent weeks is more gradual than Feb/March Image
Here's ICU admissions. Similar picture. Now I don't think these charts alone fill in the gaps we have in that early data yet. But in a few weeks they might have. If they start to spike then it looks probable UK will too. If they don't then UK may not. Image
Early signs are broadly promising: the 7day average daily new cases in France and Spain is no longer rising and has actually fallen a bit in the past day or two. In Spain the % of positive tests also seems to have peaked. Then again it's still rising fast in France Image
It's too early to be certain this is not a repeat of the first wave. But much of the data thus far seems to be consistent with that. Why? Restrictions? Mask wearing? Better treatments? Better shielding? Or way too early to say? My vote is def for the latter...
Most striking thing from today's press conference? @CMO_England admitting the govt underestimated the doubling time of #COVID19 in the first wave. It's true. And I'd argue it was in part because they paid too little attention to what was happening in Italy/Spain/France.
The next question is whether the response to having messed up last time is to swing entirely in the other direction (assume cases are heading through the roof) or to pay more attention to European epidemiology. I'd argue the latter - as I lay out in the thread above. 👆

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ed Conway

Ed Conway Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @EdConwaySky

Mar 27
🚨
The Chinese owners of British Steel say they are now considering shutting their blast furnaces and end steelmaking at Scunthorpe in early June - only a few months away.
It would mean an end of virgin steelmaking in the country that invented it during the industrial revolution
British Steel say the main question now is timing: whether the operations will close in June, in September or later.
It says tariffs are one of the reasons the blast furnaces are "no longer financially sustainable".
Press release 👇 Image
The news means @jreynoldsMP faces two interlocking crises in the coming months:
1. The imposition of US tariffs on an ever growing segment of British exports
2. The end of virgin steelmaking (the UK would be the first G7 country to face this watershed moment).
This is big stuff
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
Donald Trump just announced 25% tariffs on anyone importing oil from Venezuela.
This is odd.
Because the country importing the most crude from Venezuela is... the US.
Capital Economics chart of Ven oil exports by Capital Economics via @rbrtrmstrng
But it raises a bigger point
🧵 Image
Why does the US import so much oil from Venezuela?
Mainly for the same reason it imports so much oil from Canada.
And no it's not just because they're close.
It's because most US refineries are set up to refine the kind of oil they have in Venezuela and Canada.
To understand this it helps to recall that crude oil is actually a broad term. There are LOTS of different varieties of crude - a function of the geology of where the oil formed and the organic ingredients that went into it millions of years ago.
It's called "crude" for a reason
Read 14 tweets
Mar 23
🚨
Here's a thread about ALUMINIUM.
Why this commonplace metal is actually pretty extraordinary.
How the process of making it is a modern miracle...
... which also teaches you some profound lessons about the trade war being waged by Donald Trump. And why it might be doomed.
🧵
Aluminium is totally amazing.
It's strong but also very light, as metals go.
Essentially rust proof, highly electrically conductive. It is one of the foundations of modern civilisation.
No aluminium: no planes, no electricity grids.
A very different world. Image
Yet, commonplace as it is today, up until the 19th century no one had even set eyes on aluminium. Unlike most other major metals we didn't work out how to refine it until surprisingly recently.
The upshot is it used to be VERY precious. More than gold!
Read 36 tweets
Mar 21
🚨TARIFFS🚨
Here's a story that tells you lots about the reality of tariffs both for those paying them & those hoping to benefit from them.
A story of ships, storms, bad luck and bad policy.
It begins a week and a bit ago, with a man frantically refreshing his web browser...
🧵
That man is Liam Bates.
He runs the UK unit of a steel company called Marcegaglia. They make stainless steel - one of the most important varieties of this important alloy. The method of making it was invented in Sheffield. And this company traces its DNA back to that invention. Image
Watching the process is TOTALLY amazing.
They tip a massive amount of scrap: old car parts, sinks etc, into a kind of cauldron and then lower big glowing electrodes into it.
Then flip the switch.
⚡️Cue a massive thunder sound as a controlled lightning storm erupts inside it.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 24
🧵Three years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, EU, UK and other nations vowed to wage economic war, via the toughest sanctions in history.
So... how's that going?
We've spent months documenting what ACTUALLY happened. Here's a thread of threads on the REAL story on sanctions...
1. Flows of dual use items, including radar parts, drone components and other parts used by Russia to kill Ukrainians, carried on from the UK and Europe to Russia, via the backdoor (eg the Caucasus & Central Asia)
2. Of all the goods sent by the UK to Russian neighbours, few were as significant as luxury cars.
Having sanctioned Russia (the idea being to starve Putin's cronies of luxuries) Britain (and Europe more widely) began sending those sanctioned cars in via the backdoor instead
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
If the main thing the US really wants out of a deal with Ukraine is "50% of its rare earth minerals" then I'm surprised this can't be wrapped up pretty quickly.
Why? Because Ukraine doesn't HAVE many rare earth resources.
Really. As far as anyone knows it's got barely any... Image
Yes, Ukraine has lots of coal and iron and manganese.
It also has some potential sizeable reserves of stuff like titanium, graphite and lithium. Not to mention some promising shale gas.
But of the 109 deposits identified by KSE only 3 are rare earth elements Image
Now in one respect I'm making a pedantic point: a lot of people say "rare earth elements" when they actually mean "critical minerals".
The two aren't the same thing.
Rare earth elements are a v specific bit of the periodic table: actually they're NOT all that rare.
More on them👇
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(