Thread by @OliverStuenkel

Bolsonaro lashes out at Biden for having offered Brazil financial support in the fight against deforestation & writes that "OUR SOVEREIGNTY IS NOT NEGOTIABLE." Brazil's president is clearly not worried about becoming a global pariah. Quite to the contrary,it helps him electorally

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1311325653179006977

From an electoral point of view, international isolation, including sanctions against Brazilian products, is desirable for Bolsonaro: it helps him strengthen the narrative that the world is a dangerous place and that dark forces seek to destroy Brazil and take away the Amazon.

The existence of an international alliance of powerful actors who seek to weaken Brazil is a helpful ingredient to justify the adoption of exception (i.e. authoritarian) measures. If Biden wins, Bolsonaro can say: communists/globalists and climatists are in power all around us.

That explains why Bolsonaro has ZERO interest in fixing ties to Argentina: the political calculus here is very simple: it is much more useful to keep attacking president Fernandez and say that socialism is destroying Argentina than being on talking terms with Fernandez.

For those in Europe and the US genuinely concerned about the Amazon, there is no easy way out. Threats of sanctions & int'l isolation will temporarily strengthen Bolsonaro. But I'd say that if the US & Europe join forces vis-à-vis Brazil, Bolsonaro will run out of luck eventually

That is because Brazil's economic elites still largely believe that Bolsonaro can get away with his current environmental policies. They have not turned against Bolsonaro. Brazil's stock market is booming. Few believe global environmental concerns will have a big impact on Brazil

Most in Brazil believe that whether the EU-Mercosur trade deal will be ratified or not will depend on other factors, such as protectionism in the EU. Environmental concerns in Europe are largely seen as an excuse for worries about Brazilian competition.

While concerns about boycotts of some Brazilian products due to environmental concerns (e.g. by British supermarkets) sometimes surfaces in the public debate in Brazil, I'd say it is not taken seriously by the vast majority of investors.