MNUCHIN confirmed this morning what we reported Tuesday: that his counter to PELOSI’S $2.2 trillion Covid relief offer will be in the neighborhood of the PROBLEM SOLVERS’ $1.5 trillion deal.
PELOSI FLATLY REJECTED that $1.5 trillion offer a few weeks ago, saying it was woefully inadequate.
MNUCHIN met with White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS on Tuesday afternoon and today as he prepped the deal.
THERE ARE many open issues here. SOME NOTES …
-- MNUCHIN’S OFFER has an “escalator clause,” which could bump the topline up to $2 trillion. THE QUESTION becomes this: Does the “escalator clause” make Dems happy enough? Can PELOSI accept it?
-- PELOSI told Ds outstanding issues are state and local money and liability reform -- the same two issues that have been outstanding for months. REMINDER: Dems are now at $436 billion on state and local funding, while Rs were at $150 billion. (h/t the great HEATHER CAYGLE)
KEY QUESTION:
-- IF A DEAL COMES TOGETHER, will Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL put something this big on the floor? It’s far from clear to us. He has a busy Senate with SCOTUS hearings/confirmation. Plus, he’s not taking the lead in these talks.
What’s more, the topline price tag is only part of the equation here: The component parts are also critical, and those do not appear to have changed appreciably. FOR EXAMPLE: Will the Dems come MCCONNELL’S way on a liability overhaul?
-- THEN THERE’S THE PRICE TAG: SENATE REPUBLICANS are very wary of a $1 trillion bill, so can they swallow a $2 trillion bill? President DONALD TRUMP will have to lean in -- which he has not been willing to do in legislative debates.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
After speaking all day to top House Republicans, here's are the options for reconciliation.
stay the course -- and pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Johnson is an optimist. You gotta give him that. The Louisiana Republican has maintained that the mess that we’re seeing right now is all part of what he calls the “deliberative process.” Fair enough. There’s certainly a lot of deliberating going on.
But there’s a path — a narrow path — for House Republicans to get a budget resolution allowing “one big beautiful bill” to move forward.
Following a very long meeting in the speaker’s office Tuesday night that included GOP leadership, committee chairs and some of the hardliners, there were signs of progress, although no agreement yet.
“I think when you look at where we are, we’re close to a trillion [dollars in cuts] and still working,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters afterward.
Scalise added that House GOP leaders “are focused on” trying to mark up a budget resolution next week.
They’ve also directed all the committees involved in this process to come up with more spending cuts. “We’re working on details for each committee,” Scalise said. “But we have gone back to each committee to increase those numbers. We’re not done on it.”
Plus, Republicans will think expansively about how to count savings — DOGE, projected 3% economic growth and a juiced economy from slashing regulations.
Then there’s Trump.
Can Trump, who has had limited legislative success during his first term, get Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) to back Johnson’s plan? Trump hasn’t yet leaned on lawmakers to get the reconciliation process going. By next week, he may have to.
Switch to two bills.
Hold onto your hat, Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.). There are House Republicans talking about the Budget Committee switching course and marking up the dual-track reconciliation process that Smith, the Ways and Means Committee chair, has railed against for months.
Trump says he doesn’t care if there’s one bill or two bills as long as his agenda gets approved. There are plenty of senior aides in the White House who want two bills. And the House Freedom Caucus wants two also.
The first reconciliation package would have defense spending, energy policy and border security provisions. The second reconciliation package — the tax-cut portion — would be punted until later. When exactly is unclear.
Smith doesn’t like the two-bill approach. In his view, that puts tax cuts at risk. Yet if the Budget Committee remains stuck, House Republicans may not have a choice.
Chip Roy, the floor is yours.
There’s always an inclination in House Republican leadership to say something like this: “OK, Freedom Caucus. If you think your idea is so great, give it a shot, and let’s see how it goes.”
Play this out with us for a moment. What if Johnson tells Roy, Norman and the other conservative holdouts that they should write whatever budget resolution they want, try to push it through the Budget Committee and the full House, and then see what the Senate will do with it?
Of course, a Freedom Caucus-favored package may not get through the Budget Committee. If it does, it could fail on the House floor. And it will certainly get ripped to shreds in the Senate.
But there’s utility in that exercise to show that hardliners need to drop their draconian spending-cut demands and embrace a bill that can actually become law. That’s the real goal of legislating, right?
We have acquired @electoanalytics, a data startup that focuses on Congress.
Electo Analytics is a truly special platform. It tracks and allows collaboration on bills, tracks regulations and has a fulsome directories of the Hill, state and local public officials and aides.
The deal valued Punchbowl News at north of $100 million.
But I want to take a second to talk about what our goals are. And what Punchbowl News wants to do going forward.
From our start nearly 3 years ago, our aim was to create a news organization that serves people who care deeply about the politics of governing.
We do that through our three newsletters -- AM, Midday and PM. We do that through our social and newsmaker events. We do that through our polling of Capitol Hill and K Street.
And we will do that through our acquisition of Electo Analytics, which will be folded into Punchbowl News. We want Punchbowl News to be the place where you get your news -- and where you do your work in Washington. We'll be building this platform out with the Hill/Downtown in mind -- and with everyone's input.