Thread by @conserv8320

When is the Covid #Casedemic going to end? Why have we decided that a positive case is worth canceling events, quarantines and school closures? The data and the science just do not support this.

Here are some facts.

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Covid survival rates for infected people by age group:

0-19 years 99.997%
20-49 years 99.98%
50-69 years 99.5%
70+ years 94.6%

Children to not die of Covid and neither do young adults. Also they are usually asymptomatic and children are not significant transmitters.

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According to the CDC 94% of deaths have an average of 2.6 comorbidities. This does not mean that only 6% died of Covid. It does mean only 6% ONLY had Covid. In those 94% who died WITH Covid it may or may not have been a major cause. It is hard to make a definitive statement.

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Contrary to popular opinion, comments about Americans dying of Covid because we are an obese nation are overblown. Although obesity can lead to other conditions, it is only listed as a cause for 6,863 total deaths and is not a top 10 condition over the age of 55.

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Some countries, like Singapore, do not count any death as Covid unless it is accompanied with pneumonia. In the US you can be tested positive, be asymptomatic, test negative (“recovered”), and then die in a car accident and be marked as a Covid death.

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“Singapore sticks rigidly to the WHO’s case definition for classifying COVID-19 deaths. It does not include non-pneumonia fatalities like those caused by blood or heart issues among COVID-19 patients in its official tally.”

reuters.com/article/health…

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According to the CDC, there are 188,470 deaths involving Covid-19, however if the US followed WHO’s case definition there have been only 84,390 Covid deaths with pneumonia, <1/2 the total number. It’s important to understand how deaths are counted.

cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…

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Top 10 comorbidities or conditions for each age group. Some, like pneumonia, may be related to being sick with Covid like illness, but most were pre-existing (diabetes, dementia, heart disease, etc.). These are # w/ condition, not deaths.

cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…

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It’s also important to keep a perspective. Yes 200,000 is a lot of people, but as mentioned, are they all really Covid deaths? How many would have died anyway? The median Covid-19 death is about a year old than average all cause deaths. On average people are dying “on time”.

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People die, it’s a sad fact of life. People die of other things besides Covid and many are dying because of lockdowns and failure to get treatment for other conditions. There have been 2,022,937 all cause deaths. Deaths with Covid are 9.3% of these deaths.

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Here is a comparison of the top 10 cause of death for 2018 by age group compared to Covid-19 in 2020. Note that the seasonal flu is much more deadly to young children than Covid. Also note suicide in the young. Lockdowns & social isolation is bad for this susceptible group.

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Data source for above table.

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…

webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/l…

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Cases. We have shifted from counting deaths to hospitalizations and ICU beds to cases, even as hospitalizations and deaths have continued to drop. We are testing more, so of course cases are going up. Also, the PCR test was not created to check for active cases.

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PCR identifies substances qualitatively not quantitatively, detecting the genetic sequences of viruses, but not the viruses themselves.

reuters.com/article/uk-fac…

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Due to high cycle thresholds (Ct) in PCR tests as many as 90% of those testing positive in 3 sets of testing data in NY, MA, and NV carried barely any virus and may not have been contagious. The virus may have been dead for weeks or even months.

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nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…

This is important information if you are counting cases. If you get 500 positive cases and 90% barely have any virus then the number of actual active cases may be as low as 50. Critical when using cases for contact tracing, quarantines, lockdowns, or trends.

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Long-hauler syndrome, myocarditis & lung scarring. I am not a doctor & will not minimize this. It does occur in a certain % (I’ve seen ~10%?). In some case most, if not all, symptoms disappear over time. This occurs w/ other respiratory diseases but we usually don’t check.

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I won’t even address the uselessness of masks or lockdowns. I know some people are married to their mask & will probably be buried in them. It’s almost a religious cult now.

Lastly, we need to open schools, let kids play sports & open the economy. This #Casedemic is over.

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One additional item. According to the CDC, 6,171 "Covid deaths" listed "Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events" as the cause. These are NOT Covid deaths. Poisoning? Intentional injury? This is 3.3% of the Covid total deaths.

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