Milhouse Van Houten 🇨🇦 Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 26 tweets 10 min read Read on X
October 1, 2020 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update

Current data as of 11 pm Sept. 30.

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #covid19quebec #COVID19toronto ImageImageImageImage
6 newly reported deaths in all of Canada (population: 37,971,020).

Total deaths: 9,297 (2.4 deaths per every 10,000 people in Canada or 0.02%). Image
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.3% of covid deaths.

This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages).

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
Bear in mind that the risk of death will sadly always rise in line with one's advancing age.

In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death. Image
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2014-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.) Image
Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths: 2,848 (1.9 deaths per every 10,000 people in ON or 0.02%).

More deaths over 90 (915) than under 70 (393). Image
Ontario now reports:

- 35 in ICU

- 17 in ICU on a ventilator Image
Ontario now reports:

- 150 in hospital

- 35 in ICU

- 17 in ICU on a ventilator Image
A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason. Image
Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line) has fallen from ~15% at peak. Image
This is the week-over-week growth in daily counts for four key metrics since August 11 (lowest # of new cases reported after the ‘first wave’).

+ Upward: faster growth
+ Downward: slower growth
- Upward: slower decline.
- Downward: faster decline.

Growth is not exponential. Image
The Ontario government's ramping up of testing and easing of testing criteria have likely affected the number of cases (positive test results).

Positive test results will probably rise further as the government works toward its goals of 50,000 and then 78,000 daily tests. Image
The positivity rate on tests conducted in Ontario (yellow line) has fallen markedly from the spring peak. Image
*Hypothetical:

This chart normalizes cases (positive test results) to show how many would have been reported since March 1 if:

1. the current level of testing (daily avg over past 7 days) had been maintained throughout, and

2. no changes to positivity rates reported earlier. Image
City of Toronto (population: 2,731,571 or 19% of Ontario):

Total deaths: 1,181 (4.3 deaths per every 10,000 people in Toronto or 0.04%)

41.5% of Ontario deaths

11 deaths since August 1, 2020 Image
Québec (population: 8,552,362):

Total deaths: 5,834 (6.8 deaths per every 10,000 people in QC or 0.07%).

(Note that Québec backdates newly reported deaths.) Image
Québec now reports:

- 43 in ICU (aux soins intensifs) Image
Québec now reports:

- 262 in hospital

- 43 in ICU (aux soins intensifs) Image
Québec - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line) has fallen from ~15% at peak. Image
The Québec government's level of testing has likely had an impact on the number of cases (positive test results). Image
The proportion of people in Québec testing positive on tests (yellow line) has fallen markedly from the spring peak but has been moving upward since mid-August.

Note that QC reports on number of people tested, not simply number of tests (unlike ON). Image

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

Feb 14, 2022
🚨An appeal🚨

I'm very happy to see the @IdeasInst launch! Please take a look at their website and learn more about them. Please also follow them here on Twitter.

It's still the early days of this organization but expect many great things in the future.

theideasinstitute.org/2022/02/04/the…
The mission of the @IdeasInst "is to make a public commitment to the values of the enlightenment: liberty, tolerance, universal rights and rationalism."

This resonates so well with what many of us here believe in, especially as the last two years have strengthened our values.
Their Board of Scholars is impressive and includes many familiar names: @TejaShahzia @DonaldWelsh16 @LDBildy @MikkoPackalen @ClausRinner @JamesManson6263 @PardyBruce @WoodReporting

This is not a fringe minority, but their views may be unacceptable to the established elites.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26, 2022
Ontario 2020-22 comparison in 8 charts.

1. Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, 2010-2022 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths).
2. Cases, hosp'zns & deaths indexed to values 1 year earlier. Black line (index=100) is 365 days ago (all values indexed to values on that date).

(Below black bar = < than one year ago today; Above black bar = > than one year ago today)
3. 2020-2022 seasonal comparison: The number of deaths from/with covid-19 in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25, 2022
Here are two Ontario-focused articles (written by your neighbours!) to share with family and friends who may benefit from knowing they're not alone in feeling that things have gotten out of hand in this province.

The children (and adults) of Ontario are not alright.
"Ontario’s children are the victims of abuse. Under any other circumstances, what Ontario’s children are experiencing would be investigated by our police as child abuse."

H/T @LauraRosenCohen

@fordnation @celliottability @Sflecce

brownstone.org/articles/ontar…
"In my classroom, the learning loss is noticeable. My students can’t concentrate and they aren’t doing the work that I assign to them.
...
Our children need life on the highest volume. And they need it now."

@fordnation @celliottability @Sflecce

bariweiss.substack.com/p/im-a-public-…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
Mortality in Canada (thread):

Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Canada, 2010-2021 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths.) Image
Canada total weekly deaths 2016 to 2021. Image
The number of deaths from all causes in 2018-19 vs. number of deaths from or with Covid-19 in 2020-21, by age. Image
Read 19 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
A maternity hospital in Japan has raised concerns about mask usage during pregnancy, noting that the length of umbilical cords has shortened alongside an increase in mask usage during covid.

This was posted on Instagram and is, unsurprisingly, no longer available.
The wording of the Instagram post is available here for those who can read Japanese or who want to attempt a translation.

ameblo.jp/zsunsun55z/ent…
Key finding - Percentage of umbilical cords under 50 cm:

2019 - 28.5%
2020 - 33.3%
2021 - 55%
2021 June onward - 76.9%
Read 5 tweets
Jan 12, 2022
Ontario 2020-22 comparison in 8 charts.

1. Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, 2010-2022 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths).
2. Cases, hosp'zns & deaths indexed to values 1 year earlier. Black line (index=100) is 365 days ago (all values indexed to values on that date).

(Below black bar = < than one year ago today; Above black bar = > than one year ago today)
3. 2020-2022 seasonal comparison: The number of deaths from/with covid-19 in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets

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