It's the first day of a two-day summit dedicated to conveying the image of a more assertive Europe. Here's what's going to happen: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Let's start with China. In a wording that echoes many of the concerns raised by the US, EU leaders will declare that the bloc needs to rebalance its relationship with China. Leaders will also give credit to themselves for Xi's carbon commitment. Our story: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
On industrial policy, EU leaders will declare that strategic autonomy is a `key objective' of the Union. But what exactly does this mean? We have covered this issue extensively. See for example: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Then on Belarus, the main goal of the Summit is to overcome Cyprus's refusal to sign off to sanctions, unless if EU leaders also agree to punitive measures against Turkey. A reminder of what happened at the foreign affairs council last week: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The latest draft of the Summit conclusions indicates that leaders will aim for a deal on Belarus sanctions today. The blue highlight below (latest draft) is stronger than the previous wording (yellow highlight). This may indicate things are moving:
Nothing much on Nagorno-Karabakh and Alexei Navalny. The usual EU calls:
On tech & digital policy, leaders will declare that their objective to achieve digital sovereignty. They ll invite a “digital compass” that sets out the bloc’s concrete digital ambitions until 2030. They ll also back plans to create an EU federated cloud infrastructure (Gaia-X):
On the subject of fears that the EU is a laggard on digitalization and therefore ``at the mercy of US and Chinese companies (and their states) in
cutting-edge areas,'' which leaders are going to address, I recommend the latest note by @ErikFossing: research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/econom…
There are no conclusions circulated on Turkey, and it's unclear what will be said in the `brief' discussion on Brexit. These are the most interesting parts of the summit, but we ll know more about them later.
P.S: One issue that leaders may want to address in the conclusions of a future summit is that no one ever cares to read the conclusions of their summits. How many European citizens/taxpayers/voters will pay any attention to what their leaders decide today and tomorrow?
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A key clause from the draft legal text of the latest package of sanctions. The EU is seeking to go beyond an import ban on Russian oil by targeting Moscow’s ability to sell *anywhere in the world*.
So basically vessels owned, chartered, operated or *otherwise controlled* by EU nationals & companies, *no matter if they carry an EU flag or not,* can't transport oil originating in Russia between places *anywhere in the world*. All services, including *insurance*, also banned
So, for example, a shipping tycoon with a Greek passport, no matter what flag his/her vessels carry, can't transport Russian oil between any countries anywhere, not just in Europe. Insurance provisions also banned. Our story on this: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Russia was forced to impose capital controls, as the unprecedented measures triggered a run on 🏦 and created a "structural liquidity deficit".
Still, the country's central bank clarified that external debt will continue to be serviced: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A mass exodus of investors has started, as fund managers restrict access to Russian assets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Now European stocks and U.S futures pare losses, they 're down less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Russia's stock market is closed and the country is facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Obviously some European companies are suffering, including banks (Raiffeisen), automakers, airlines, big oil (BP!), and luxury. But overall, while Russia is facing existential market stress, things in Europe seem to be under control. For now
If the standoff continues of course, there will be lasting detrimental consequences for all. There's no precedent of an economy so big & so central to the functioning of global supply chains (energy, commodities, food) being completely marginalized and North-Koreanized
European stocks rebound today, and Russian stocks trim some of yesterday's losses.
Worth reading this column by @johnauthers on why markets are saying that Putin will get what he wants (small spoiler: see carve-outs in sanctions) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Υπάρχει σοβαρό πρόβλημα με το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό. Χθες, στη συνεδρίαση της Επιτροπής Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων, έγινε περιγραφή της κατάστασης με δραματικούς τόνους. Ελλάδα και Κύπρος (όπως και οι άλλες χώρες του Νότου) θα δεχθούν πλήγμα σε τρία μέτωπα:
Παρένθεση - η Επιτροπή Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων στις Βρυξέλλες (COREPER) είναι το επίπεδο όπου τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ λαμβάνουν το 98% των συλλογικών αποφάσεων τους. Οι υπουργοί *συνήθως* βάζουν μία τζίφρα σε αποφάσεις & κείμενα που έχουν ήδη συμφωνηθεί στο COREPER. Εξ ου και..
... ο Μόνιμος Αντιπρόσωπος κάθε κ-μ είναι η πιο σημαντική θέση της διοίκησης, πιο σημαντική από υπουργού. Τα κ-μ είναι ο βασικός νομοθέτης στην ΕΕ (σαν άνω Βουλή). Και οι αποφάσεις τους λαμβάνονται μέσω του COREPER. Κλείνει η παρένθεση. Χθες λοιπόν...