Nikos Chrysoloras Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It's the first day of a two-day summit dedicated to conveying the image of a more assertive Europe. Here's what's going to happen: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Let's start with China. In a wording that echoes many of the concerns raised by the US, EU leaders will declare that the bloc needs to rebalance its relationship with China. Leaders will also give credit to themselves for Xi's carbon commitment. Our story: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
On industrial policy, EU leaders will declare that strategic autonomy is a `key objective' of the Union. But what exactly does this mean? We have covered this issue extensively. See for example: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Then on Belarus, the main goal of the Summit is to overcome Cyprus's refusal to sign off to sanctions, unless if EU leaders also agree to punitive measures against Turkey. A reminder of what happened at the foreign affairs council last week: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The latest draft of the Summit conclusions indicates that leaders will aim for a deal on Belarus sanctions today. The blue highlight below (latest draft) is stronger than the previous wording (yellow highlight). This may indicate things are moving: ImageImage
Nothing much on Nagorno-Karabakh and Alexei Navalny. The usual EU calls: ImageImage
On tech & digital policy, leaders will declare that their objective to achieve digital sovereignty. They ll invite a  “digital compass” that sets out the bloc’s concrete digital ambitions until 2030. They ll also back plans to create an EU federated cloud infrastructure (Gaia-X): ImageImageImage
On the subject of fears that the EU is a laggard on digitalization and therefore ``at the mercy of US and Chinese companies (and their states) in
cutting-edge areas,'' which leaders are going to address, I recommend the latest note by @ErikFossing: research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/econom…
There are no conclusions circulated on Turkey, and it's unclear what will be said in the `brief' discussion on Brexit. These are the most interesting parts of the summit, but we ll know more about them later.
P.S: One issue that leaders may want to address in the conclusions of a future summit is that no one ever cares to read the conclusions of their summits. How many European citizens/taxpayers/voters will pay any attention to what their leaders decide today and tomorrow?

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More from @nchrysoloras

May 4, 2022
A key clause from the draft legal text of the latest package of sanctions. The EU is seeking to go beyond an import ban on Russian oil by targeting Moscow’s ability to sell *anywhere in the world*.
So basically vessels owned, chartered, operated or *otherwise controlled* by EU nationals & companies, *no matter if they carry an EU flag or not,* can't transport oil originating in Russia between places *anywhere in the world*. All services, including *insurance*, also banned
So, for example, a shipping tycoon with a Greek passport, no matter what flag his/her vessels carry, can't transport Russian oil between any countries anywhere, not just in Europe. Insurance provisions also banned. Our story on this:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28, 2022
The price that Russia is paying for the invasion is truly gigantic.

First, here's a list of all the punitive measures that have been imposed so far:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Russia was forced to impose capital controls, as the unprecedented measures triggered a run on 🏦 and created a "structural liquidity deficit".
Still, the country's central bank clarified that external debt will continue to be serviced:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A mass exodus of investors has started, as fund managers restrict access to Russian assets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 19 tweets
Feb 28, 2022
Now European stocks and U.S futures pare losses, they 're down less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Russia's stock market is closed and the country is facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Obviously some European companies are suffering, including banks (Raiffeisen), automakers, airlines, big oil (BP!), and luxury. But overall, while Russia is facing existential market stress, things in Europe seem to be under control. For now
If the standoff continues of course, there will be lasting detrimental consequences for all. There's no precedent of an economy so big & so central to the functioning of global supply chains (energy, commodities, food) being completely marginalized and North-Koreanized
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27, 2022
We seem to be tailspinning into chaos. I have covered crises before, but nothing comes even close:

1) BP decided to take a hit of as much as $25 billion, just to leave Russia immediately.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2) Russia's bond market is collapsing bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) Russians lined up at cash machines around the country to withdraw foreign currency bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 13 tweets
Feb 25, 2022
European stocks rebound today, and Russian stocks trim some of yesterday's losses.
Worth reading this column by @johnauthers on why markets are saying that Putin will get what he wants (small spoiler: see carve-outs in sanctions) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… ImageImage
And even more explicit in the messages below.
Our story on the carve-outs here:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
My colleague @AlbertoNardelli had first reported about this here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Nov 28, 2020
Υπάρχει σοβαρό πρόβλημα με το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό. Χθες, στη συνεδρίαση της Επιτροπής Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων, έγινε περιγραφή της κατάστασης με δραματικούς τόνους. Ελλάδα και Κύπρος (όπως και οι άλλες χώρες του Νότου) θα δεχθούν πλήγμα σε τρία μέτωπα:
Παρένθεση - η Επιτροπή Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων στις Βρυξέλλες (COREPER) είναι το επίπεδο όπου τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ λαμβάνουν το 98% των συλλογικών αποφάσεων τους. Οι υπουργοί *συνήθως* βάζουν μία τζίφρα σε αποφάσεις & κείμενα που έχουν ήδη συμφωνηθεί στο COREPER. Εξ ου και..
... ο Μόνιμος Αντιπρόσωπος κάθε κ-μ είναι η πιο σημαντική θέση της διοίκησης, πιο σημαντική από υπουργού. Τα κ-μ είναι ο βασικός νομοθέτης στην ΕΕ (σαν άνω Βουλή). Και οι αποφάσεις τους λαμβάνονται μέσω του COREPER. Κλείνει η παρένθεση. Χθες λοιπόν...
Read 16 tweets

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