Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
⚡️⚡️⚡️
There is yet another high profile 🇨🇳🇷🇺 spy case. Alexander Lukanin (64), a researcher from Tomsk, has been arrested by the FSB for transferring sensitive technology to China, according to @MBKhMedia. Here is some context 👇 1/ mbk-news.appspot.com/news/v-tomske-…
2/ Alexander Lukanin was a researcher at Tomsk polytechnic university, and later on he worked at Institute of physics of strength & material science, a highly reputed research institution in Siberia. His research was focused on high-voltage power supply that has military use
3/ After retirement Lukanin was invited to work at Shenyang in North-East China. According to @MBKhMedia, his employer was Shenyang University (沈阳大学), but the city hosts some PLA-tied research institutions. Good background in this @ASPI_ICPC report aspi.org.au/report/china-d…
4/ Lukanin's arrest is the second high-profile 🇨🇳🇷🇺 spy scandal in 2020, following arrest of Valery Mitko in June. Some background on Mitko's case 👇
5/ It is important to note that the case was reported not by the FSB, but by a local Telegram-channel and then confirmed by Lukanin's friends to @MBKhMedia. An informal agreement between Moscow and Beijing not to go public about spy cases still seems to be working.
6/ It's clear that Russia and China do spy on each other, but back at the time of Putin and Hu Jintao (around 2005) both countries have decided to go silent on this issue in order to not undermine an emerging nexus between them.
7/ At the same time it's clear that MSS runs a network of spotting Russian retired scientists who might possess access to technologies of interest to the PLA, and lure them to China with lavish salaries etc. The FSB is dully continuing to interrupt these practices.

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More from @AlexGabuev

May 13
What does a cabinet reshuffle in Russia mean for 🇨🇳🇷🇺 government-to-government ties? It's about continuity, deepening, and long-term. Also, as Beijing and Moscow expand their defense industrial cooperation, Putin has elevated high-caliber professionals with China experience. 🧵 Image
2/ Putin's government set to be appointed by Duma today is an old-new cabinet, with very few changes. This is a quite competent team that has worked together for 3+ years. They have weathered COVID, war, and sanctions - much better than Russian generals perform on the battlefield
3/ For 🇨🇳🇷🇺 government-to-government ties, this continuity is very important. Since Xi's state visit to Moscow in March 2023, the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai have invested serious effort in order to get senior officials on both sides to know each other well.
Read 19 tweets
May 10
Is 🇺🇸 recent push to choke off 🇨🇳 supplies of dual-use goods to 🇷🇺 having an effect? It looks like it, according to the newest Chinese customs data. But I'm not holding my breath: over the last 2+ years Beijing and Moscow have found ways to adapt to U.S. sanctions. Short 🧵 Image
2/ Newest customs statistics is out, and it shows that Beijing's exports to Russia continue to decline for a second month. April shipments to 🇷🇺 are $8.3b, down 13.7% compared to April 2023. This is bigger than yoy exports drop to 🇺🇸 (-2.8%) or 🇪🇺 (-3.6%). customs.gov.cn/customs/302249…
3/ Russian exports to China are growing ($11.5b in April), but the drop of imports is significant and it builds on nearly 16% drop in March - the first such decline of 🇨🇳 exports to 🇷🇺 since summer 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 10 tweets
May 9
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦🔭🇨🇳
What lessons are Chinese leaders learning from Russia’s war on Ukraine? They may be the opposite of those the @WhiteHouse wants them to learn. Some thoughts from a @WSJopinion piece, in a short🧵
wsj.com/articles/xi-ji…
2/ The demonstrative effect of Western reaction to Putin's aggression was very much on U.S. policymakers' mind very early on. Here is how @SecBlinken is talking about it last year in Helsinki. ru.usembassy.gov/secretary-blin…
Image
3/ And here is @CIA director William Burns discussing it in his recent essay for @ForeignAffairs: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 25
The fact that 🇷🇺 will receive 28% less for its gas in 🇨🇳 than in Europe, but still seeks to expand gas sales to China, illustrates a dilemma Moscow faces in economic relations with Beijing. Simply put: amid war in 🇺🇦, there is no alternative to dependency on China. 🧵1/14 Image
2/ According to this excellent story in @business, 🇷🇺 government expects to earn 28% less in 🇨🇳 market for same amounts of gas than in EU & Turkey. For example, in 2024 it's $257 vs $320 for 1,000 m2. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ This reality shouldn't come as a surprise. As my @CarnegieEndow colleague @SergeyVakulenk0 has established in the best to date study on 🇨🇳🇷🇺 piped gas pricing formula, a discount benefiting Beijing is nearly pre-programmed in the devil's bargain. carnegieendowment.org/politika/89552
Read 14 tweets
Apr 9
The deepening of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 alignment is one of the most consequential geopolitical outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine. How so, and why is this important? I wrote about it in a new essay for @ForeignAffairs. Some key takeaways in a🧵1/20 foreignaffairs.com/china/putin-an…
2/ Even before Crimea annexation in 2014 and February 24, 2022, Moscow and Beijing have been on a steady path to improve and deepen their ties. Driving forces include delimitation of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 border, economic complementarity, and deepening compatibility of the two political regimes.
3/ Russia's full-blown invasion of Ukraine has provided a qualitative leap to what has been an incremental qualitative improvement before 2022. China and Russia are more firmly aligned now than at any time since the 1950s. Why is that?
Read 20 tweets
Dec 11, 2023
As I argue in my latest piece for @WSJ, in Russia, the war against Ukraine is now the organizing principle around which most decisions are made, and at the core of Russia’s domestic, economic and foreign policy. Short summary in a 🧵 wsj.com/world/russia/r…
2/ On the domestic front: in their recent in-depth research paper into attitudes toward the war, my colleagues @AndrKolesnikov and Denis Volkov showed that about 75% of the population support it. Most of Russia doesn’t look or feel like a nation at war. carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alt…
3/ The elites, too, have demonstrated remarkable cohesion and the inability to challenge the Kremlin’s course. Even the infamous mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny earlier this year only strengthened Putin’s grip on power. ft.com/content/0960e7…
Read 14 tweets

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