Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
⚡️⚡️⚡️
There is yet another high profile 🇨🇳🇷🇺 spy case. Alexander Lukanin (64), a researcher from Tomsk, has been arrested by the FSB for transferring sensitive technology to China, according to @MBKhMedia. Here is some context 👇 1/ mbk-news.appspot.com/news/v-tomske-…
2/ Alexander Lukanin was a researcher at Tomsk polytechnic university, and later on he worked at Institute of physics of strength & material science, a highly reputed research institution in Siberia. His research was focused on high-voltage power supply that has military use
3/ After retirement Lukanin was invited to work at Shenyang in North-East China. According to @MBKhMedia, his employer was Shenyang University (沈阳大学), but the city hosts some PLA-tied research institutions. Good background in this @ASPI_ICPC report aspi.org.au/report/china-d…
4/ Lukanin's arrest is the second high-profile 🇨🇳🇷🇺 spy scandal in 2020, following arrest of Valery Mitko in June. Some background on Mitko's case 👇
5/ It is important to note that the case was reported not by the FSB, but by a local Telegram-channel and then confirmed by Lukanin's friends to @MBKhMedia. An informal agreement between Moscow and Beijing not to go public about spy cases still seems to be working.
6/ It's clear that Russia and China do spy on each other, but back at the time of Putin and Hu Jintao (around 2005) both countries have decided to go silent on this issue in order to not undermine an emerging nexus between them.
7/ At the same time it's clear that MSS runs a network of spotting Russian retired scientists who might possess access to technologies of interest to the PLA, and lure them to China with lavish salaries etc. The FSB is dully continuing to interrupt these practices.

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More from @AlexGabuev

Oct 22
🇨🇳🇷🇺🧵
Today's meeting between Putin and Xi before opening of BRICS summit is like an iceberg - the invisible part under the water is much bigger than the one meant for outside observers. However, there is an interesting detail in the Kremlin's otherwise laconic readout... 1/7 Image
2/ ... and it's the list of people present from both sides. For some reason, Xi is accompanied not only with top figures of his national security team (Cai Qi, Wang Yi etc.), but he has also brought to Kazan some of the key members of his economic team. kremlin.ru/supplement/6214
3/ Among them are Pan Gongsheng (PBOC), Zheng Shanjie (NDRC), Lan Foan (minister of finance), Wang Wentao (minister of commerce). Interesting contrast to the fact that samae officials (Pan & Lan) have skipped a BRICS ministerial in Moscow just a week ago. reuters.com/world/top-bric…
Read 7 tweets
Jul 24
🇨🇳🇷🇺🧵
Is China distancing itself from Russia economically, as the West urges Beijing to do amid war in Ukraine? Not really, if you look at this week's travel of Ding Xuexiang, one of Xi's top economic lieutenants. 1/15 Image
2/ This year 🇺🇸 has invested a lot of effort to choke off Chinese support for the Russian war machine, including threats of sanctions against 🇨🇳 banks involved in trade, and tightening the screws against landmark projects like Arctic LNG-2. Is it working?
3/ 🇨🇳customs statistics shows that breakneck pace (+26.3%) of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 trade growth in 2023 has slowed down to just 1.8% in Jan-June 2024. Key here is a visible drop in 🇨🇳 exports to 🇷🇺 by 0.8% (imports have grown by 3.9%). customs.gov.cn/customs/302249…
Read 15 tweets
Jun 14
Why is China not attending 🇺🇦 Peace Summit in🇨🇭? What may be 🇨🇳 plan for diplomacy around the war started by Xi's partner Vladimir Putin? Some thoughts in a new @ForeignAffairs piece, and more details in this🧵
foreignaffairs.com/china/why-chin…
2/ Roots of 🇨🇳 decision to skip 🇨🇭 summit can be traced back to last August, when Xi's special envoy Li Hui 李辉 appeared in Jeddah, which sparked expectations that Beijing is ready to engage in multilateral diplomacy based on @ZelenskyyUa peace formula. wsj.com/articles/with-…
3/ However, after Li sat through the discussion and had brief conversation with @JakeSullivan46 & Toria Nuland, China's conclusion was that it shouldn't engage in next rounds. The agenda is set by @AndriyYermak, the peace formula doesn't change to include 🇨🇳 suggestions, and... Image
Read 16 tweets
May 13
What does a cabinet reshuffle in Russia mean for 🇨🇳🇷🇺 government-to-government ties? It's about continuity, deepening, and long-term. Also, as Beijing and Moscow expand their defense industrial cooperation, Putin has elevated high-caliber professionals with China experience. 🧵 Image
2/ Putin's government set to be appointed by Duma today is an old-new cabinet, with very few changes. This is a quite competent team that has worked together for 3+ years. They have weathered COVID, war, and sanctions - much better than Russian generals perform on the battlefield
3/ For 🇨🇳🇷🇺 government-to-government ties, this continuity is very important. Since Xi's state visit to Moscow in March 2023, the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai have invested serious effort in order to get senior officials on both sides to know each other well.
Read 19 tweets
May 10
Is 🇺🇸 recent push to choke off 🇨🇳 supplies of dual-use goods to 🇷🇺 having an effect? It looks like it, according to the newest Chinese customs data. But I'm not holding my breath: over the last 2+ years Beijing and Moscow have found ways to adapt to U.S. sanctions. Short 🧵 Image
2/ Newest customs statistics is out, and it shows that Beijing's exports to Russia continue to decline for a second month. April shipments to 🇷🇺 are $8.3b, down 13.7% compared to April 2023. This is bigger than yoy exports drop to 🇺🇸 (-2.8%) or 🇪🇺 (-3.6%). customs.gov.cn/customs/302249…
3/ Russian exports to China are growing ($11.5b in April), but the drop of imports is significant and it builds on nearly 16% drop in March - the first such decline of 🇨🇳 exports to 🇷🇺 since summer 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 10 tweets
May 9
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦🔭🇨🇳
What lessons are Chinese leaders learning from Russia’s war on Ukraine? They may be the opposite of those the @WhiteHouse wants them to learn. Some thoughts from a @WSJopinion piece, in a short🧵
wsj.com/articles/xi-ji…
2/ The demonstrative effect of Western reaction to Putin's aggression was very much on U.S. policymakers' mind very early on. Here is how @SecBlinken is talking about it last year in Helsinki. ru.usembassy.gov/secretary-blin…
Image
3/ And here is @CIA director William Burns discussing it in his recent essay for @ForeignAffairs: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
Image
Read 17 tweets

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