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Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
@NvOndarza
Oct 1, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Always interesting for EU nerds to look at the bilaterals around an #EUCO and what they say about the power dynamics and conflicts between member states.

Out of curiosity, I put together who @eucopresident met around the #EUCO on the MFF/Recovery Fund negotiations in July /1
@eucopresident A few interesting findings:
- Most meetings were with Macron, Merkel and @vonderleyen
- Michel met Merkel and Macron always together, highlighting the Franco-German push on the MFF
- More active EU policy of Sanchez and Conte got them into the inner circle

/2
@eucopresident @vonderleyen - The most involved smaller MS were the 'trouble makers'
> Rutte/NL as informal leader of the frugal four
> Orban/HU as the leader with most resistance against the rule of law provisions.
- Only EU MS with no participation at the 'balcony diplomacy' were Romania + Cyprus
/3
@eucopresident @vonderleyen Expect a much different political dynamic at today's #EUCO:

- So far, no clear coordination by Merkel/Macron on Foreign Policy
- This time, Cyprus might take centre stage as 'trouble maker' on Belarus
-Finally, a test for how much pro-active PL on Belarus will be involved
/ends

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More from @NvOndarza

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Jun 10
We know by now that the centre held, and the far-right gains were confined to a couple of (important) member states. But what about the new & non-aligned parties?

To get a better sense, I went through the 77 MEPs counted as new/non-aligned by @EuropeElects Image
After a - very rough - categorisation by political affiliation, some suprising results:

First, about 42 of 77 fall into the far-right/nat conservative group, chief among them the AfD and Fidesz looking for options. But a few of the smaller are closer to the ECR, less for the ID. Image
Second, with M5S, SMER and BSW amongst others, there is a sizable group of 24 MEPs who roughly fall into the populist left/nationalist left category. Plus a few Communist who are not sitting with the Left EP group.
Read 6 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Jun 9
With all polls for #EP2024 now closed, an attempt to collect my first thoughts.

Main take away: European politics will get more polarising, more politicised and more populistic.
First, the turnout, likely up or stable. This is astounding after mostly boring, nationally focused campaigns. Whereas national mainstream parties invested (too) little in these elections, voters are getting more interested in European politics.
Second, despite high-profile wins for the far-right, across Europe the centre held. This happened even more than expected, with the EPP even gaining ~10 seats, whereas - for now - the liberals are third and the losses of the Social Democrats with -6 are moderate. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Mar 25
What does Europe think about a potential return of Trump to the White House?

To get a better understanding, @ClaudMajor, Laura von Daniels and I asked colleagues from 20 European countries both in and outside the EU/NATO.

Here are the results:

swp-berlin.org/publications/p…
2/ On first sight, a very similar perspective emerged from most countries, with a triangle of concerns:

Democracy, Defence and trade.
3/ Democracy: There are fears that a second Trump term could embolden authoritarian & right-wing populist forces in Europe & globally, undermining democratic rules & norms.

His support for illiberal leaders like Orban is particularly worrying for European democracy.
Read 11 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Mar 1
As far-right parties are gaining ground across Europe ahead of the #EP2024 elections, @Beckehrung and I have analysed the geostrategic positioning of different far-right parties across five key dimensions.

The results are quite telling:

swp-berlin.org/publikation/ge…
For the analysis, we looked at voting in the EP in regards to EU relations with Russia, China, the US/NATO as well as EU foreign and security policy and enlargement.

We analysed 74 votes during the current legislature, and included all parties to the right of the EPP.
First, far-right parties remain deeply divided amongst themselves.

Relations with Russia have long been a divisive point between different far-right parties, but they also differ significantly on EU-China relations, transatlantic relations and (to a lesser extent) enlargement. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Sep 19, 2023
Our report today on reforming the EU in light of enlargement is being grossly misrepresented in UK media.

1) It is an independent report, mandated by the two Europe ministers, not the official position by the French or German government or the EU.

thetimes.co.uk/article/french…
2) The focus of the report is to get the EU fit for enlargement and strengthen democracy/rule of law.

The UK is mentioned in a half sentence, for an outer tier of Associate Membership with single market integration, if it wants to. Which neither the UK gov nor Labour wants.
3) The publication of the report was long planned for today's General Affairs Council, ahead of further EU discussions on enlargement planned for the fall. The overlap to Starmer's Paris visit was pure coincidence, driver is the EU's enlargement debate.
Read 5 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023
As someone who argued for more European sovereignty - in a Euro-atlantic framework - I am truly baffled the German government communication and decision-making on Leopard 2. The damage it is doing to German credibility and European sovereignty is hard to overstate. /1
First, The German government is arguing it does not want to act alone ('No Alleingänge'). But so many of its European allies - from the Central/Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics), North (Finland), South (Spain), Northwest (UK) now want to act and are calling for Berlin to do so. /2
However, the German government is now arguing it needs a US decision to send tanks before it can send Leos or give other European countries permission to do so.

Instead of European sovereignty, this is effectively outsourcing risky decision-making to the US. /3
Read 6 tweets

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