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Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 20

From 10,000 to nearly 1,00,000 smart meter installs per day —

India’s power sector is electrifying at scale. Let’s deep dive into this massive opportunity ⚡🧵👇

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Let's understand what is the TAM for smart meters currently

With approximately 3 crore smart meters already installed, a significant opportunity valued at ₹60,000 crores exists for the remaining 23 crore installations. This substantial gap indicates a vast growth runway for industry participants.

The government's website, nsgm.gov.in/en/sm-stats-all, confirms that 30 million smart meters have been installed, providing a live tracker for the implementation of smart meters across India, which aims for a total of 25 to 30 crore installations. This suggests that the "smart meter story" is actively being executed.

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TAM was always huge here but execution was a challenge here due to multiple reasons mainly

> High Upfront Costs: Smart meters and the associated infrastructure require significant capital investment, which made many DISCOMs hesitant. DISCOMs are already loss making and don't have the balance sheet strength to further mass adopt Smart Meter execution , which also resulted as a problem for the Smart meter’s manufacturers and other counter parts involved in the value chain.

> Lack of Clear Policy and Incentives: Earlier, there was limited regulatory push or incentives for rapid deployment.

> Consumer Awareness & Resistance: Many consumers were unaware of benefits or skeptical about new technology. It is often believed that installation of Smart meters will result in increased billing , Charges hence especially during elections the execution will be
slowed down due to political sensitivity and avoid voter backlash .

Read 22 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 16

A single AI query can use up to 10 X more electricity than a regular Google search.

But why does AI consume so much power? And more importantly, how can we, as investors, turn this rising demand into a compelling opportunity?

Let’s break it down 👇

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The AI power shock -

> An AI query, such as one posed to a large language model (LLM) like ChatGPT, consumes approximately 2.9 Watt-hours (Wh), or 0.0029 kWh, of electricity.

> This figure is nearly ten times the 0.3 Wh (0.0003 kWh) required for a traditional Google search. That’s the same electricity a light-bulb needs for ~20 minutes.Multiply by hundreds of millions of daily prompts and you get a brand-new industrial load—born in the cloud.

> Energy experts warn this surge could soon rival the demand of mid-size nations.

> John Hennessy, the chairman of Google's parent company, Alphabet, has publicly stated ( Reuters interview) that an exchange with an AI chatbot is likely to be ten times more energy-intensive than a standard keyword search.

Welcome to the world of AI-led power demand.

2/n
A (very) quick rewind -

The intellectual seeds of artificial intelligence were planted in the mid-20th century by pioneers like Alan Turing, who in 1950 posed the question, "can machines think?".The field was formally christened at the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence in 1956, an event that brought together the founding fathers of AI research.

The initial optimism gave way to a period known as the "AI winter" in the 1970s and 1980s, as researchers grossly underestimated the profound difficulty of creating general intelligence, leading to a sharp decline in funding.

The field was revitalized in the 1990s and 2000s by the resurgence of machine learning, fueled by more powerful computer hardware, the availability of immense datasets from the internet, and the application of robust mathematical methods.

The true inflection point for the current AI boom was the development of the "transformer" architecture in 2017, a breakthrough that enabled the creation of highly effective large language models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and catalysed the generative AI frenzy.

Read 22 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 13

Did you know?
1 in every 5 iPhones sold globally is now made in India!

But when did this major supply chain shift begin—and how quickly is it accelerating?

Let’s break it down in this thread:
How fast is Apple moving its supply chain to India?👇
#MakeInIndia

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The 20 % milestone

> One in every five iPhones sold worldwide now sports a “Made-in-India” label.

> Bloomberg data show India’s share of global iPhone output hitting 20 % in April 2025, up from ~3 % in FY-22—a six-fold relocation in just three years.

> Because total iPhone volume stayed flat, the entire gain is pure supply-chain migration.

> That shift injected US $10 bn+ of value-add into Indian factories in FY-24 alone and is compounding monthly.

> Analysts following Apple’s purchase orders expect 25-30 % of all iPhones to be India-made by December 2025.

2/n
But on first place why it was China that became the iphone factory...

Its first of all is not just low labour cost but high level of integrated economy

> Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus—dubbed “iPhone City”—opened in 2010 with its own 24-hour customs gate, onsite tax offices and a dedicated cargo airport spur.

> Export rebates, free-trade zones and lightning infrastructure let phones clear to DHL trucks in under an hour.

> At peak season the complex employed 300 k + workers and pumped out 500 000 handsets a day, roughly half of global iPhone output.

Hundreds of satellite plants—glass, screws, speakers—sit within a two-hour truck run, compressing Apple’s product-cycle from months to weeks.

> For a decade no other country matched that density of skills, parts and incentives—until Covid lockdowns and tariff walls rewrote the math.

In simple terms it was both because of scale and largely integrated supply chain network that made iphone manufacturing luring in India

Video credits - Victor Mochere (Youtube)

Read 22 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 7

From brake to throttle: in just 18 months the RBI swung 250 bp—first draining ₹2 tn of liquidity, then pumping in nearly ₹3 tn.

Das bowed out with a CRR cut; Malhotra stormed in with OMOs and three rate cuts.

Banks, EMIs, Capex—everything’s shifting. Let’s unpack the ripple effects 👇

Before exploring the widespread effects, let's clarify the distinction between fiscal and monetary policy (Economics 101).

Additionally, we'll examine historical trends of rising and subsequently falling interest rate cycles.

Monetary policy is the central bank’s joystick, nudging growth by adjusting money supply and interest rates;

Fiscal policy is the government’s checkbook, steering demand through spending and taxation.

Read 18 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 4

A single drug class is crashing diet programs, trimming grocery bills, and forcing pharma to pour >$40 B into new plants. Welcome to the #GLP1 era.

Here’s the deep dive you didn’t know you needed.👇

First let's understand how it works?

GLP-1 receptor agonists mimic an incretin hormone →
Insulin up📈, Glucagon📉& Gastric emptying, 🧠 Appetite off-switch.

The result? Better sugars and major weight loss—something insulin never managed.

Early agents shaved off a few kilos. New-age Semaglutide & Tirzepatide erase 15–20 % body-weight—approaching bariatric surgery without the scalpel.
This efficacy has turned a diabetes drug class into a blockbuster obesity treatment.

GLP-1 RAs have been used for over two decades, building a safety record . Only in recent years, with potent versions (e.g. weekly injections), have they gained mainstream fame for weight loss. Their ability to address the global obesity epidemic with a pharmacological tool (not just lifestyle changes) makes them transformative.

Read 28 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Mar 11

🧵Indian Airlines' Global Takeoff: Can They Dominate the Skies?

> IndiGo & Air India are on a mission to capture 50%+ of India's international air traffic.
> A fierce battle with global giants like Emirates & Qatar Airways is underway!

Dive in the details below 👇

Source - Statista

1/ Indian Airlines Eye 50% International Market Share by 2025

> Indian carriers currently hold ~43% share in international passenger traffic.

> The target is to cross 50% by 2025, reducing dependence on foreign airlines.

> IndiGo and Air India are leading this push with aggressive expansion plans.

2/ IndiGo's International Ambitions

> Currently India’s largest airline, IndiGo aims to sell 15 million international tickets in 2025.

> Expanding rapidly in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe.

> Placed record-breaking aircraft orders to support long-haul operations.

>Plans to start direct flights to new destinations in the US, UK, and Africa.

Read 10 tweets

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