Let's understand what "offshore refugee processing centres" and "wave machines to deter crossings" are: racist fantasies. They're being floated as ammunition in the culture war by far right ideologues in Whitehall.... 1/
2/ ... so the BBC can ask, credulously, "would this be a good idea?" then interview a bunch of Aussie racists who say, yes, you know what, it would be a good idea... as if this country's commitment to human rights were negotiable...
3/ ... and by mid-morning I can confidently predict a bunch of elderly racists will be spewing hate into the microphones of the talk-radio shows, saying "offshore detention centres are too good for them"....
4/ While in the pubs, closed Facebook groups and private Telegram channels, the real genocidal ideation is going on: "tow 'em out and sink 'em" etc. We're in an information war: Cummings & co are waging it, the talk radio channels are the weapon, the BBC the conduit...
5/ Amid it all, we never actually hear from refugees. Notice that? All that's happened in 24 hours is: the racist mind-garbage of some PADs and right-wing civil servants (yes these too exist) has been dumped into the public discourse...
6/ Lesson: out of literally nothing - two phone calls to the press, no leaked documents, no statements - the Vote Leave/Bannon government dumped a new consignment of racism, to top up all the existing racism into our country's public life. Silence is complicity.
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One of the joys of not being economics editor of Newsnight anymore is... being able to state when the Institute for Fiscal Studies is talking out of its derriere. Today they've had a go at Labour's plan to offer statutory sick pay to the lowest-paid workers 1/... ifs.org.uk/articles/labou…
2/ At present there's a lower limit on SSP: you have to be earning more than £123 a week to get it. That leaves 1.1 million workers without access, two thirds of them women...plus you don't get SSP for the first three days of absence... .tuc.org.uk/blogs/scrappin…
3/ Labour wants to scrap the lower limit and start SSP from day one. But, says the IFS, that will likely be passed through into lower wages. According to models based on American data, all attempts to raise the statutory benefits of workers lead to wage cuts... labour.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
In June 2021 the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Defender sailed past Russian-occupied Crimea, triggering the Russian navy to fire shots over its bow. Does Nigel Farage think our Navy "provoked this war"? 1/ I ask because he wants to be prime minister...🧵
2/ He says NATO and the EU "provoked this war" by expanding Eastwards... that's a pure repetition of the lie peddled by pro-Trump fascists and pro-Putin tankies... but let's explore the reality: before 2022 NATO ruled out Ukrainian membership...
3/ So Farage can only mean - as the tankies do - that we were wrong to allow Poland, the Baltics, Romania etc into NATO. Now who else argues that? Vladimir Putin, in his infamous December 2021 Draft Treaty, demanding demilitarisation and neutrality for Eastern Europe...
Sunak's strategy was to squeeze Reform by pandering to racism. It's ended up with crossover: Reform emerging as a protest vote option for some conservative voters who could never vote Lab/Libdem ... and like Brexit it's driven by loathing of immigration 1/... Big consequences ...
2/ Reform surge could, if the Sunak fails to stop it, reduce Tories to double figures while putting a handful of Reform MPs in Parliament - a voice for outright Islamophobia and pro-Putin foreign policy... And then the fun begins: a multi-year project to elect a far right govt in Britain...
3/ There is a strong case for tactical voting in Clacton... and in all seats identified by @hopenothate as potential wins for Reform: in most cases, inc Clacton, that means voting Labour... but ...
What does Labour's spending plan tell us? That the conditions where social-democracy could achieve change through fiscal expansion have vanished (for now). 1/ However redistribution can happen thru many channels - and this is a highly redistributive manifesto ...
2/ Each of Labour's Five Missions is redistributional... growth, thru higher real wages (boosted by the New Deal) ... Net Zero thru energy security and local control... crime and education thru enhancing individual opportunity ... and the NHS is an engine of social justice
3/ This is a manifesto aimed precisely at the problem Starmer's left critics ignore: we're in an era of strategic conflict. It's fundamentally an answer to that: external threat, radicalisation and democratic decay... NB this 👇🏽 is the most significant spending commitment
Why is Sunak's campaign imploding and how bad could it get? I think we could - but not inevitably - be witnessing the end of the post-1945 Tory formation. A 🧵... 1/ They have achieved nothing in 14 years except Brexit...
2/ ... and since the 2019 election the swing voters who delivered Johnson's majority (@LabourTogether voter segments)...have begun to desert them because Brexit has failed, both materially and morally...
@LabourTogether 3/ ... not only is the economy stagnating, but the UK has self-isolated from two giant, divergent economic powerhouses: the USA and EU... and every crisis of the past 5 years is driven by that...