Read this thread.
This had to be said because we have too many “uneducated literates”
in this country.
It’s important to see the data, appreciate the context and think about the available options without the benefit of hindsight.
What @oommen explicitly didn’t say:
In Jan-Feb, the babus must have had a tough time figuring out what’s going on. WHO was saying one thing. The Embassy in China, Vietnam, etc was hearing something else.
The administration had earlier experience with SARS(again a chinese virus).
At that time, we figured out that WHO can’t be trusted.
Countries like India don’t have the bandwidth or the resources like WHO. And we had to do the whole heavy lifting. As more information started trickling in, we were getting better prepared.
But we still had several issues
Despite giving states adequate warning during the lockdown 1, not a single state actually built any extra medical facility anticipating the future demand. Even after railways nudged by building mobile covid centres, there were no takers for the facility nor new hospitals.
What we saw was states trying to use this lackadaisically as another opportunity to extract more funds from the centre.
One of the early stumbling blocks presented by states: they wanted centre to do everything including conduct and funding of tests.
The reason states were trying to put everything on the centre:
Every state knew that their resources are very limited. Even the state with the best medical infrastructure too knew that they don’t have the capacity as per 3-month projections.
India’s problem has always been about scale.
And we don’t have resources.
Politics dictates that all resources can’t be deployed on all the things that had to be done.
Many states eventually added facilities.
The deep distrust of everything private ensured that we didn’t tap our private resources. When we were forced to use that, things were already spiraling out of control.
On top of that, we were facing the regular challenges like floods, cyclone, etc. We even had earthquakes.
Despite all these things, the health and home officials did a pretty good job.
The number of active cases peeked at about 10 lakhs, and has started coming down now. @oommen
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@economyninja explains what else is happening due to the delay in ship turn around times. Mind you, most Chinese exporters are smart. They don’t ship until they get full payment. And most buyers stupidly pay upfront!
The kind of stories we have been repeatedly seeing.
a) foreign companies are steadily leaving china.
b) some think they are too invested in China, and they are talking China plus one.
c) Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean companies are closing in large numbers, mostly kicked out.
d) there is huge imbalance in container traffic. Trade imbalances are affecting shipping.
e) the shipping delays are getting too worse. It’s choking inbound traffic in consumer states.
f) Fuck you, corona!
(I hope that covers all manpower disruptions due to Wuhan virus)
You all know how i love to bash China and Xi Jinping.
Now, a little bit without the excessive dramatisations.
2. #XiJinping is a rare leader that China has received. Providence has a way to feed the right medicine to someone that it wants to keep alive longer.
Jinping is just that.
3. The mess in China can be easily related. What we have is a large babudom state. The party politbureau is the only controlling authority, but it’s a collection of different ambitions, that just want to show good results on paper. The whole system relies on having good press.
I am not an economist, but this is what i feel is happening around us.
This is start of a rant.
Pandemic induced trade disruption is a reality.
It’s timing though is either miraculous or impeccable, based on which side of the conspiracy theory aisle you prefer.
Pre-pandemic, everything wasn’t really that rosy. And this is around the world.
3. Stuff like steel, oil, etc were already under some kind of pressure.
A lot of muck was getting stirred in China.
Global gdp growth data in pic. The last peak was the 4.3% in 2009. In 2019, it was a mere 2.3%. People were just hoping that 2020 would be better.
@chittukuruvi4
This is the video to broadly answer your evergrande question
@chittukuruvi4
This is a very interesting conversation. Ofc, none better than @_nirajshah to ask those relevant questions.
The key part: it’s not really about evergrande hitting us.
It’s about this huge india story. Key factor: India needs to go up 8-10% to meet pre-covid levels
@chittukuruvi4
Another key take away:
This guy is already talking about being selective. That’s very interesting.
It’s as if he is indicating that we are near the peak or we are a bit past it.
And, he expects a >5% correction.
I think earnings will adjust.
For a conservative, low margin money person(low money at hand), the best option in credit spreads is about 25-30 delta. You are looking for risk reward 1:0.5 to 1:0.25.
You can manage at 1:1 by being more active.
110. #Options#Notes
It’s better to have all spreads at 1/3rd the width of strike.
That gives us a 1:0.5 RR ratio. Ex: trade with max profit of ₹1k has max loss of ₹2k.
You can’t have a low probability trade unless you are damn sure about it.
If you are going to be directional, be directional.
I had tried both ATM bullish put spread and 35 delta put spread on SBIN. I got more out of former because i got the direction right and i used closer to 50 delta.
I believe what’s happening now is a disruption in the way we think of commutation.
The pandemic has shown us that an 8-hr office is not really necessary.
Of course, there are sectors where Work-From-Home doesn’t make sense.
But, vast majority of work can be done from home.
The reason: we have now digital connectivity substituting for physical or road connectivity.
This is an option we never had in the past.
Technically, we can employ people from home, with an occasaional face to face interaction for certain limited activities that require physical presence.