Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Republicans & Democrats represent different interest group sectors & economic classes. We have organized elite competition, not oligarchy. But that still provides multiple paths for unequal public class influence

My latest with @wsisaac & Zuhaib Mahmood:
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
Republican leaders' positions on policy are more closely associated with the opinions of the upper class (top 10%) on economic policy. Democratic leaders' positions more closely match those of the middle class
#polisciresearch
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108… Image
Rep & Dem positions are more strongly & consistently associated with interest group positions across policy areas than with public classes. Reps & business groups are aligned; Dems & advocacy groups are aligned; Dems are negatively aligned with business, Reps with advocacy groups Image
Policy adoption is more likely with the support of Republican leaders, Democratic leaders, business interests, & advocacy groups. But even after accounting for all of that, the upper class public is more likely to get its way across economic, social, & (especially) foreign policy Image
Check out "Political Parties, Interest Groups, & Unequal Class Influence in American Policy"
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…

& our updated Gilens data with party & group positions (& issue & ideology) matched to public class opinion on 1,863 proposals since 1981:
dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?…

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More from @MattGrossmann

Jan 2
Our new paper "Building Back with Partial Praise: Public Opinion on the Biden Agenda" for #SPSA2024


Build Back Better's modest popularity was mostly but not entirely a product of mixed views on its provisions. The Inflation Reduction Act was more popular.matthewg.org/IRA_BBB_Southe…
The eventual law (IRA) was more popular than BBB while it was being debated. Describing BBB only with Biden & name was less popular than outlining its provisions, but not after voters evaluated provisions. Provision information did not affect IRA opinion.
matthewg.org/IRA_BBB_Southe…
Image
Support for both BBB & IRA was higher when voters supported more of their provisions. But voters appeared to hold BBB to a higher standard, needing to support most of its provisions to support the package as a whole
matthewg.org/IRA_BBB_Southe…
Image
Read 4 tweets
May 9, 2023
Biden is not preparing to act alone & default is very unlikely, as is a long-term clean debt limit lift. Whatever the posturing, we are mostly waiting on the terms of Dems' concessions. That likely includes budget caps & more. We may get no hints today but structure is mostly set
Potential but not probable hints today would include:
1) assignment of people to spearhead budget caps dissuasion
2) Dem comments on Rep concessions with varying degrees of disdain (eg non-starter vs we can work on)
3) talk of debt limit extension timing with further budget talks
Possible Dems may be able to delay concessions (or give some now & more later), but won't get limit past election without concessions. Even (unlikely) unilateral action would really be a delay; they'd still be negotiating under threat:
Read 6 tweets
Nov 17, 2022
State government policy becomes consistent with state public opinion as conservative & liberal states elect Republican & Democratic officials & as officials adjust policy to public opinion

Highly recommend Dynamic Democracy by @cwarshaw & @DevinCaughey
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…
State public opinion has grown more liberal over the long-term on racial issues, more liberal over the short term on cultural issues, & moved up & down on economic issues after a move right

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book… Image
State public policy has grown consistently more liberal on economic & cultural policies over time, but states have begun to diverge more in recent years & to be relatively more liberal or conservative based on their partisanship & public opinion

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book… Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 12, 2022
Highly recommend “The Bitter End” by @johnmsides @vavreck @CTausanovitch
on the 2020 election, a campaign where not much changed opinions despite lots of big news

hookedlansing.com/book/978069121…

Here is the relatively stable horse race & consistent Biden favorability advantage
1/n
The primary race was, by the end, less stable. But Biden & Sanders drew most coverage & public support for most of the campaign. & Biden won with a similar coalition as Clinton: older & more partisan voters & Black voters

The Bitter End
hookedlansing.com/book/978069121…
2/n
Biden was judged ideologically closer to Dem voters. But many voters weren’t judging candidates ideologically. Only 52% placed both candidates & had Sanders to left of Biden; 21% saw no difference: 10% reversed it; rest couldn’t place

The Bitter End
hookedlansing.com/book/978069121…
3/n
Read 6 tweets
Sep 23, 2022
Americans increasingly perceive important differences between the parties

Fun new @electionstudies charts:
isr-anesweb.isr.umich.edu/ANES_Data_Tool…
Americans increasingly perceive the Republican Party as the more conservative party but some Americans remain ideologically confused
isr-anesweb.isr.umich.edu/ANES_Data_Tool…
Americans are also reporting more frequent conversations about politics since Trump, with only 9% of Americans saying they are not talking at all about politics with friends or family
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21, 2022
When Information About Candidates Persuades Voters

New @NiskanenCenter #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @j_kalla & @cantstopkevin

Voters still change their partisan vote choice in response to information & do take signals of candidate quality

niskanencenter.org/when-informati…
@NiskanenCenter @j_kalla @cantstopkevin Testing 100s of messages on 1000s of voters in the 2020 presidential election, voters can be persuaded, especially with specific information about Biden:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
Even Republicans change their vote choice, suggesting that campaign information can shift votes:
@NiskanenCenter @j_kalla @cantstopkevin & more high quality candidates, like those endorsed by newspapers, are still winning at high rates & getting more votes; it's just been obscured by mostly uncompetitive elections:
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/ar…
Read 4 tweets

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