Judging from Trump-Biden debate, it seems strongest argument on each side is seen to be the extremists they say are associated with other side. While each tries to deny there are many such extremists, or that they support 'em, other side says they really “dog-whistle” support.
On one side are the “white supremacists” and sexists said to dominate society, especially police. On the other are looters, crazy woke cancelers, and socialists pushing for massive increases and taxes and spending.
Now 1st, I 60 years old & don’t recall this being as big an issue in a US presidential elections before. So this seems evidence of our increasing polarization.
2nd, if we take this seriously, & don’t care much for either extremists, issue becomes: which story of extremists do we most believe? Which have we actually seen in substantial numbers, which hold levers of power, for which can president help lots, & which candidates would help?
I know what I think, but you should care much less what I think than what evidence shows. So this seems a great topic on which to post evidence reviews. Especially comparative reviews, comparing types & strength of evidence on both sides.
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Striking facts:
- US is going broke on extreme med spending (18% of GDP, biggest govt spend)
- US medical specialists who've looked at data know that medicine has very low marginal health value
- They mostly ignore this when talking to wider publics or considering health policy
The 2nd half of med spending, which costs 9% of GDP, at best gives maybe ~1% mortality cut, which adds ~2mo. of life, or one part in 400 of a lifespan. But a healthy lifeyear is typically worth ~3x annual income. Not a good deal at all.
4 randomized experiments, each vary aggregate medicine, saw no net effect on health:
'74-'82 RAND: 7.7K US folks split evenly to cheap medicine or not, 3-5yrs
'08 Oregon: 8.7K/26K US folks got Medicaid or not, 2yrs
'15-18 Karnataka: 52,292 Indians split evenly, got cheap hospital insurance or not, 3yrs.
'19 US tax letter: 4.5M/0.6M got tax warning letter or not.
"explanation for the absence of widespread prediction markets [PM] … 3 groups … each is largely uninterested …
Savers: who enter markets to build wealth. …
Gamblers: who enter markets for thrills. …
Sharps: who enter markets to profit from superior analysis." worksinprogress.co/issue/why-pred…
I agree regulation isn't main obstacle to PM, & that valuable markets have subsidies, coming from 4th group: those willing to pay for info to inform decisions. Main obstacle is usual one in innovation: not enough concrete trials to work out practical details, show success.
Yes there is "free rider" problem if many value the same info, which is why early trials should focus on cases of concentrated info demand. There are many such.
The most popular explanation I see of UFOs/UAPs is that personal testimony just can't be trusted, and if you ignore that you always find a mundane way to explain all videos, etc. Yet we trust personal testimony in courts all the time; should we stop doing that?
Yes of course non-testimony evidence also matters a lot in courts, but the testimony often makes a big difference to the final verdict. But they why not let that also make a big difference re UFOs/UAPs?
Roughly one in a thousand people are murdered, and maybe a thousand people who might have done it. The prior in UFOs/UAPs cases can't be much less than in murder accusations.
In order to promote diversity, cut homogenization, & get better data, we could, some % of the time, randomly replace winners with losers or with random candidates. In the next 14 polls, say what random % of time to make such replacements in each case.
In elections, what % of the time should the candidate who got the fewest votes be the one who takes office?
When employers rank candidates for a job, what % of the time should they have to hire their worse ranked candidate?
Why don't old retired people do more drugs than young people? After all, the risks of physical harm and social unreliability or shame seems less for them. Are the potential gains from feeling good smaller by an even larger ratio?
“most popular functions for use were using to: relax (96.7%), become intoxicated (96.4%), keep awake at night while socializing (95.9%), enhance an activity (88.5%) and alleviate depressed mood (86.8%)” academic.oup.com/her/article/16…