Judging from Trump-Biden debate, it seems strongest argument on each side is seen to be the extremists they say are associated with other side. While each tries to deny there are many such extremists, or that they support 'em, other side says they really “dog-whistle” support.
On one side are the “white supremacists” and sexists said to dominate society, especially police. On the other are looters, crazy woke cancelers, and socialists pushing for massive increases and taxes and spending.
Now 1st, I 60 years old & don’t recall this being as big an issue in a US presidential elections before. So this seems evidence of our increasing polarization.
2nd, if we take this seriously, & don’t care much for either extremists, issue becomes: which story of extremists do we most believe? Which have we actually seen in substantial numbers, which hold levers of power, for which can president help lots, & which candidates would help?
I know what I think, but you should care much less what I think than what evidence shows. So this seems a great topic on which to post evidence reviews. Especially comparative reviews, comparing types & strength of evidence on both sides.

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More from @robinhanson

4 May
US govt is slated to issue a report on UFO stuff in about a month. What concretely could we bet on re that report? I expect it will add support to the idea that UFOs are real and weird, but how exactly could we bet on that?
This is to be a report on what has been seen, not on abstract theories to explain it. So there's no point in betting on what it will say on abstract explanations.
I take it as obvious that one can get much higher leverage from beliefs on an event by constructing specific bets tailored to it, rather than searching for existing financial assets that might correlated to some small degree.
Read 4 tweets
19 Apr
"possibility of a biological transfer [Earth <-> Mars] has practical implications for how we search for evidence of life [on Mars], both in terms of the quality of potential biosignatures and the likelihood that certain biosignatures might be expressed." liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.108…
"Assuming an origin of life on Earth, >300,000 objects could potentially have transferred viable organisms to Mars in the past 3.5 billion years. Assuming an origin of life on Mars and later transfer to Earth, the estimated number of viable transfers rises to >20,000,000"
"A viable transfer represents an unsterilized rock fragment that is at least 3 m in diameter, sufficient to protect dormant organisms from ionizing radiation damages for up to 10 million years"
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
In business, "credit for a particular idea or success is always a type of refracted social honor; one cannot claim credit even if it is earned. Credit has to be given, & acceptance of the gift implicitly involves a reaffirmation & strengthening of fealty." thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/quo…
"There’s not enough objective information about people. When you really want to do somebody in, you just say, well, he can’t get along with people. That’s a big one."
"being fair, equitable, & generous with subordinates clash both with a logic that demands choices between people, inevitably producing hatred, envy & animosity, & with the plain fact that, despite protestations to the contrary, many people do not want to be treated fairly."
Read 8 tweets
6 Apr
If farmer-era folks had really understood how much industry-era folks would reject religion, nationalism, marriage, war, aristocracy, hard work, etc., would it had made sense, from the point of view of their values, for them to try to prevent the industry era from arising?
If forager-era folks had really understood how much farmer-era folks would reject their leisure, travel, animism, equalitarianism, & sexual promiscuity, would it had made sense, from the point of view of their values, for them to try to prevent the farming era from arising?
If pre-human primates had really understood all the changes that humans would make to themselves and the planet, would it had made sense, from the point of view of their values, for them to try to prevent the humans from arising?
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec 20
Went looking for what % of statements are lies in ordinary conversation. This paper say how many lies in 10 minutes (1.74), but not how many total statements in 10 minutes! tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.120…
This paper says how many lies in 24hrs, but again with no estimate of the number of statements made in that duration. academic.oup.com/hcr/article-ab…
Here's another paper with an estimate of lies per 10min (2.18), that doesn't say how many total claims were made in that period. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep 20
What if a firm offers a product at a price, a customer buys it at that price, and they the firm regrets their choice? It seems they can do what Office Depot just did to me. They sent me an email saying my product had just been delivered. I called them back & told them no, 1/2
no product was delivered. They weren’t at all interested in tracking down this missing delivery, and told me my ONLY option was to get a refund. No I couldn’t get the same order again if prices had changed. 2/2
This was a $200 order, fyi, so well worth the trouble to find a misplaced delivery.
Read 4 tweets

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