"explanation for the absence of widespread prediction markets [PM] … 3 groups … each is largely uninterested …
Savers: who enter markets to build wealth. …
Gamblers: who enter markets for thrills. …
Sharps: who enter markets to profit from superior analysis."
worksinprogress.co/issue/why-pred… I agree regulation isn't main obstacle to PM, & that valuable markets have subsidies, coming from 4th group: those willing to pay for info to inform decisions. Main obstacle is usual one in innovation: not enough concrete trials to work out practical details, show success.

The most popular explanation I see of UFOs/UAPs is that personal testimony just can't be trusted, and if you ignore that you always find a mundane way to explain all videos, etc. Yet we trust personal testimony in courts all the time; should we stop doing that? Yes of course non-testimony evidence also matters a lot in courts, but the testimony often makes a big difference to the final verdict. But they why not let that also make a big difference re UFOs/UAPs?

In order to promote diversity, cut homogenization, & get better data, we could, some % of the time, randomly replace winners with losers or with random candidates. In the next 14 polls, say what random % of time to make such replacements in each case. In elections, what % of the time should the candidate who got the fewest votes be the one who takes office?

Why don't old retired people do more drugs than young people? After all, the risks of physical harm and social unreliability or shame seems less for them. Are the potential gains from feeling good smaller by an even larger ratio? “illicit drug use typically declines after young adulthood” drugabuse.gov/publications/s…

After working in tech in Silicon Valley for 9 yrs (’84-’93), I went into academic econ. I figured that when tech folks sought out econ academics, my tech background would give me advantage. But it hasn’t turned out that way, & someone recently explained why to me. Tech was once not that respected, & mostly full of nerds who were just way into tech. But then tech rose in status & income, & was invaded by top school kids seeking such things, who took over the top slots. These new kids didn’t much respect older tech folks from wrong schools.

"understanding the brain … little … to do with … computing power, because brain function doesn’t …resemble any form of … computation we know of. … we don’t even know what kind of computer the brain is yet, much less how to approach emulating it"
au.rollingstone.com/culture/cultur… Come on. We know that what brains do is take signals in, send signals out, based on cells sending signals to each other. So w/ detailed brain scans & models of cell-to-cell signaling, we can emulate a brain, without needing to understand higher level algorithms.

US govt is slated to issue a report on UFO stuff in about a month. What concretely could we bet on re that report? I expect it will add support to the idea that UFOs are real and weird, but how exactly could we bet on that? This is to be a report on what has been seen, not on abstract theories to explain it. So there's no point in betting on what it will say on abstract explanations.

"possibility of a biological transfer [Earth <-> Mars] has practical implications for how we search for evidence of life [on Mars], both in terms of the quality of potential biosignatures and the likelihood that certain biosignatures might be expressed." liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.108… "Assuming an origin of life on Earth, >300,000 objects could potentially have transferred viable organisms to Mars in the past 3.5 billion years. Assuming an origin of life on Mars and later transfer to Earth, the estimated number of viable transfers rises to >20,000,000"

In business, "credit for a particular idea or success is always a type of refracted social honor; one cannot claim credit even if it is earned. Credit has to be given, & acceptance of the gift implicitly involves a reaffirmation & strengthening of fealty." thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/05/30/quo… "There’s not enough objective information about people. When you really want to do somebody in, you just say, well, he can’t get along with people. That’s a big one."

If farmer-era folks had really understood how much industry-era folks would reject religion, nationalism, marriage, war, aristocracy, hard work, etc., would it had made sense, from the point of view of their values, for them to try to prevent the industry era from arising? If forager-era folks had really understood how much farmer-era folks would reject their leisure, travel, animism, equalitarianism, & sexual promiscuity, would it had made sense, from the point of view of their values, for them to try to prevent the farming era from arising?

Went looking for what % of statements are lies in ordinary conversation. This paper say how many lies in 10 minutes (1.74), but not how many total statements in 10 minutes! tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.120… This paper says how many lies in 24hrs, but again with no estimate of the number of statements made in that duration. academic.oup.com/hcr/article-ab…

Judging from Trump-Biden debate, it seems strongest argument on each side is seen to be the extremists they say are associated with other side. While each tries to deny there are many such extremists, or that they support 'em, other side says they really “dog-whistle” support. On one side are the “white supremacists” and sexists said to dominate society, especially police. On the other are looters, crazy woke cancelers, and socialists pushing for massive increases and taxes and spending.

What if a firm offers a product at a price, a customer buys it at that price, and they the firm regrets their choice? It seems they can do what Office Depot just did to me. They sent me an email saying my product had just been delivered. I called them back & told them no, 1/2 no product was delivered. They weren’t at all interested in tracking down this missing delivery, and told me my ONLY option was to get a refund. No I couldn’t get the same order again if prices had changed. 2/2

Are 3 ways to pick: FREE - person/orgs make own picks, VOTE - pick together (direct or via reps), & RULER - authorities pick, keep job for life, pick successors.

Each of next 16 polls gives you a type of choice. For each one, say which way to pick make most sense for that type. Which way to pick makes most sense for:

Building wood beam width

Are 3 ways to pick: FREE - person/orgs make own picks, VOTE - pick together (direct or via reps), & RULER - authorities pick, keep job for life, pick successors.
Next 8 polls show 4 types of choices. Pick type where it makes most sense to pick via RULER, instead of FREE or VOTE. For which choice type does it make most sense to pick via RULER, instead of FREE or VOTE?

Are 3 ways to pick: FREE - person/orgs make own picks, VOTE - pick together (direct or via reps), & RULER - authorities pick, keep job for life, pick successors.
Next 8 polls show 4 types of choices. Pick type where it makes most sense to pick via VOTE, instead of FREE or RULER. For which choice type does it make most sense to pick via VOTE, instead of FREE or RULER?

Are 3 ways to pick: FREE - person/orgs make own picks, VOTE - pick together (direct or via reps), & RULER - authorities pick, keep job for life, pick successors.
Next 8 polls show 4 types of choices. Pick type where it makes most sense to pick via FREE, instead of VOTE or RULER. For which choice type does it make most sense to pick via FREE, instead of VOTE or RULER?

"68% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats holding that a nomination vote should take place. Independents supported going forward by a 71% margin." nypost.com/2020/09/19/mos… The poll was done a few days before RBG died, and was on "if a vacancy occurred during the 2020 election year, the Senate should hold hearings on a nominee"

Self-improvement is good, but sometimes fact that you try to improve can send a bad signal. (Eg "fart rate")

In 24 polls, I’ll give 4 people factors, & examples of related putdowns in parens.

Each time, pick factor for which trying-hard-looks-bad is most plausibly an issue. For which factor is trying-hard-looks-bad most plausibly an issue?

In each of 24 polls, I’ll give 4 factors by which people vary, plus an example or two of putdowns based on each factor in parenthesis.

In each poll, pick the factor where you care the most what other people think about how you rate on that factor. For which factor do you care the most about what other people think regarding how you rate?

In each of 24 polls, I’ll give 4 factors by which people vary, plus an example or 2 of putdowns based on each factor in parenthesis.

Each time, pick factor most used to praise/admire people around you (perhaps for having LESS of it). Consider both frequency & intensity. Which factor is most used to praise/admire people around you?