Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: What to expect in October with COVID.

I do these every month. Like everyone on Twitter, I’m always right or the facts are wrong— one or the other. 1/

It is been easy in retrospect to see May and September as months when we’ve let our guards down.

We get past a rough period and people assume it’s over. It’s not over. 2/

Roughly 9% of the country has been infected. That means they have some immunity. In all likelihood it is not complete & we don’t know how long it lasts. 3/

Except possibly in some locations, this means there is a strong chance for a second wave even as the first wave runs through the country.

The Midwest— Wisconsin, Missouri, the Dakotas— appears to be on the front end of the third part of the first wave. 4/

Looking at how the Northeast and the South responded to the first 2 parts of the first wave is a big contrast.

The Northeast opened slowly. TX, FL, AZ started opening bars as soon as possible. 5/

Places like Florida didn’t learn the lesson from observing New York. They didn’t learn when they experienced it. And they’re not going to succeed in opening the economy now. 6/

If Florida would have paced themselves like NY, you could imagine opening the amusement parks and beaches by December and January.

As it is with no plan, Disney announced massive layoffs. If people don’t feel safe they will not go. DeSantis doesn’t get it. 7/

As people move indoors October will have the mirror of the country flip to these northern states. The case count in October will be lower because these are less populous states.

I guess that’s good news. 8/

But the bigger question is whether the north do a better job learning lessons from the south that southern states themselves didn’t learn. 9/

Colleges, universities and Labor Day travel are sparking new hot spots. With those hot spots, as in the NE and the South, young adults/college kids mingle the most and are infected first.

Per CDC, it sadly doesn’t end there. 1-2 weeks from young infection comes spread to 60+.10/

If we had confidence in isolation protocols, we could believe that some of these young adults wouldn’t spread it further.

Unfortunately a new IHME study shows we aren’t testing about 2 out of 3 cases. 11/

COVID fatigue & personal protection are causing fewer people to test or contact trace even as testing either lags or is too expensive. 12/

All this means the chances of a second wave is high even as a first wave continues.

Right now hospitalizations are about to begin to rise in the northern states. By November, this will mean deaths tolls are likely to increase. 13/

Let’s be clear. The summer was far far worse than it should have been which spells for a challenging fall.

Let me talk about what we can do. 14/

Four priorities:

1-Mask wearing is 50%. It needs to be 80%
2-Compliance with public health measures must increase
3-More convenient testing
4-We must regain our trust in vaccines
5-Support for states, small biz & individuals 15/

All 4 of those things are common sense all around the world and largely not political.

In the US, they have each become political. 16/

So as we sit here in October of 2020, the key to our success is to learn how to depoliticize the COVID-19 response.

I’m going to go out on a limb & say that won’t happen in October. 17/

But we do need a president who is willing to take these issues— masks, hot spots, testing, vaccine trust & economic support— and bring the temperature down. 18/

Fighting each other when we should be fighting the virus is not a winning strategy. 19/

October will be filled with politics and hi-jinx— lies, distortions, but very little action. All while attention moves away from life worsening in many communities for many people. 20/

We have a lot to say about things. We can vote safely. We can knock on doors safely. A protocol will come out on that tonight.

But there’s more. 21/

Many of these things— masks, taking a test, letting others know your exposure, supporting suffering business— are an expression of caring and decency. They used to be part of the American way. We must show they are again.

The virus won’t beat us. But we could beat ourselves./end