COVID Update: What to expect in October with COVID.

I do these every month. Like everyone on Twitter, I’m always right or the facts are wrong— one or the other. 1/
It is been easy in retrospect to see May and September as months when we’ve let our guards down.

We get past a rough period and people assume it’s over. It’s not over. 2/
Roughly 9% of the country has been infected. That means they have some immunity. In all likelihood it is not complete & we don’t know how long it lasts. 3/
Except possibly in some locations, this means there is a strong chance for a second wave even as the first wave runs through the country.

The Midwest— Wisconsin, Missouri, the Dakotas— appears to be on the front end of the third part of the first wave. 4/
Looking at how the Northeast and the South responded to the first 2 parts of the first wave is a big contrast.

The Northeast opened slowly. TX, FL, AZ started opening bars as soon as possible. 5/
Places like Florida didn’t learn the lesson from observing New York. They didn’t learn when they experienced it. And they’re not going to succeed in opening the economy now. 6/
If Florida would have paced themselves like NY, you could imagine opening the amusement parks and beaches by December and January.

As it is with no plan, Disney announced massive layoffs. If people don’t feel safe they will not go. DeSantis doesn’t get it. 7/
As people move indoors October will have the mirror of the country flip to these northern states. The case count in October will be lower because these are less populous states.

I guess that’s good news. 8/
But the bigger question is whether the north do a better job learning lessons from the south that southern states themselves didn’t learn. 9/
Colleges, universities and Labor Day travel are sparking new hot spots. With those hot spots, as in the NE and the South, young adults/college kids mingle the most and are infected first.

Per CDC, it sadly doesn’t end there. 1-2 weeks from young infection comes spread to 60+.10/
If we had confidence in isolation protocols, we could believe that some of these young adults wouldn’t spread it further.

Unfortunately a new IHME study shows we aren’t testing about 2 out of 3 cases. 11/
COVID fatigue & personal protection are causing fewer people to test or contact trace even as testing either lags or is too expensive. 12/
All this means the chances of a second wave is high even as a first wave continues.

Right now hospitalizations are about to begin to rise in the northern states. By November, this will mean deaths tolls are likely to increase. 13/
Let’s be clear. The summer was far far worse than it should have been which spells for a challenging fall.

Let me talk about what we can do. 14/
Four priorities:

1-Mask wearing is 50%. It needs to be 80%
2-Compliance with public health measures must increase
3-More convenient testing
4-We must regain our trust in vaccines
5-Support for states, small biz & individuals 15/
All 4 of those things are common sense all around the world and largely not political.

In the US, they have each become political. 16/
So as we sit here in October of 2020, the key to our success is to learn how to depoliticize the COVID-19 response.

I’m going to go out on a limb & say that won’t happen in October. 17/
But we do need a president who is willing to take these issues— masks, hot spots, testing, vaccine trust & economic support— and bring the temperature down. 18/
Fighting each other when we should be fighting the virus is not a winning strategy. 19/
October will be filled with politics and hi-jinx— lies, distortions, but very little action. All while attention moves away from life worsening in many communities for many people. 20/
We have a lot to say about things. We can vote safely. We can knock on doors safely. A protocol will come out on that tonight.

But there’s more. 21/
Many of these things— masks, taking a test, letting others know your exposure, supporting suffering business— are an expression of caring and decency. They used to be part of the American way. We must show they are again.

The virus won’t beat us. But we could beat ourselves./end

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More from @ASlavitt

23 Oct
COVID Update October 22: Europe is having a second wave. How quickly can they bounce back?

Faster than a country that makes no effort: the US. 1/
Despite a lot of wishful thinking, COVID-19 has not gone away.

(Remember the “people have natural immunity” & “the virus died out”, & the “it will disappear” man?)

Sadly wishful fantasies don’t fight the virus. Scott Atlas’s strategy of ignoring the virus doesn’t work. Only we fight the virus. 3/
Read 24 tweets
21 Oct
COVID Update October 21:

A few nights ago I described how we need to do 2 things.

Account for the past
Fight for our future

I wrote about how we need to account for the past. But I haven’t had the words to focus on the future.

Now I think I do. Or will try. 1/
Thinking about the future turns out to be really hard when we are deep in a hole we must climb out from.

Writing about the past— the need for an accountability election— was easy. Here it is if you didn’t see & want to. 2/
But the future. The future. It feels so uncertain right now. It took me some time. And many many stupid sounding drafts. (Yes for the trolls, even stupider than this!) 3/
Read 28 tweets
19 Oct
BREAKING: Data for the month suggests for the first time COVID-19 has moved from a region by region crisis to a national one.

It needs a national solution.

More to follow shortly.
Here is a graph that says a lot. One thing you see is that cases are growing since April. Now that alone doesn’t tell us everything since testing is growing but it does tell us some things.

It’s from @NephronResearch
One thing to note is the number of states where cases are growing by 1000 cases/day.

April: 6
May/June: 6
July: 14 (19 peak)
August: 12
September: 12
October 15th: 25
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
COVID Update October 18: It is time.

For the past.
And more importantly for the future.

Today: the past. Tomorrow I will write about the future. 1/
Trump has never faced accountability for his actions. His career in bankruptcy is a master class in how to behave when you don't care about others. Take their money, don't pay it back. Take their services, don't pay it back. 2/
Doing everything you can to avoid taxes including hiding money overseas, illegally using a foundation, writing off blackmail payments, trying to outlawyer the tax code. That's not "savvy." Its savage.

It is not patriotic. Yet, to date no accountability. 3/
Read 34 tweets
18 Oct
COVID Update October 17: The Coronavirus is an equal opportunity killer, right? Wrong. Many countries have done better than others.

It is an amazing story. 1/
One might think it has something to do with wealth.

The U.S. is the wealthiest country in the world. 60 per 100,000 have died here.

This compares to 2 in Haiti and 1 in Botsowana (its close to 0 for the continent of Africa) 2/
Other wealthy countries have also had very high mortality rates.

The U.K. (62), Sweden (57), Italy (59) & Belgium (86) have fared as bad or worse than the U.S. overall-- although they all improved dramatically compared to the U.S. starting in May (more on that in a sec) 3/
Read 22 tweets
15 Oct
COVID Update October 15: We started bad but THEN we got worse. Now is our chance.

Since May 10th, when the worst of Italy and the U.S. had passed, we have had 4x the number of deaths/capita. The difference is 80,000 people gone. 1/
Everyone by this time knows what happened in the U.S. in January through March. Trump heard & ignored, the CDC failed, we lacked masks, had no testing, and we lost too many people. 2/
Our first case was the same day as South Korea’s. We started out and could have been South Korea but never contained and cane to grips with the virus. 3/
Read 24 tweets

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