Simon Wardley Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
X : Future threats to humanity? Climate Change? Politics?
Me : Inequality.
X : You think it'll be worse?
Me : Much worse, especially as we divide into the three classes.
X : Three?
Me : Human (third class), AI (second) and Human + AI (first class) - for those who can afford it.
X : Human + AI?
Me : The centaur class. This is the real threat to equality. Why do you think the Beijing AI principles spell out "be designed to benefit as many people as possible, especially those who would otherwise be easily neglected" - baai.ac.cn/news/beijing-a…
X : China? You saying China is leading the way on AI ethics?
Me : Next year is the centenary of the CCP. They've been focused on eradicating poverty, in the next wave as China pushes for world leadership they'll tackle the one area the West is totally exposed on ... inequality.
This was recently spelt out in 100 foot high letters by President Xi - fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6… from the "vision of a community" to "we must face up to major issues such as the wealth gap and the development divide"
X : In the West?
Me : There are two ways to maintain power, either do good and educate people or manipulate perceptions and behaviour. Manipulating perceptions and behaviour has become very cheap these days.
X : What are you saying?
Me : Look around you at the post truth world.
X : Any advice?
Me : Same as always. We need to all have that "we" vs "me" discussion and rebalance society, rebuild bridges (especially with the forgotten) and introduce a lot more kindess into our systems.
X : Escape to space?
Me : How does that fix inequality?
X : Avoids climate change?
Me : God help us. Industrlalisation of space technology is accelerating but that comes at a risk.
X : What?
Me : Someone will deliberately kick off the Kessler effect. You're not going anywhere.

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More from @swardley

May 9
dX: How do you deal with strategy?
Me: First, we need to answer the Where question, which depends a lot on the what and why.
dX: And?
Me: Ok, some very simple steps ...
Step 1: Visualise your environment. That means getting people to discuss, collaborate & challenge in order to create a "good enough" map of your environment. Should be a couple of hours.
Step 2: Look at what's changing which is competitor moves, your moves & economic patterns.
Step 3: Using the map, determine where you could invest/focus on. You're not making a decision yet, you just want the options. By now, you could have spent four hours on the exercise.
Step 4: Decide where you should invest i.e. look at the options using why & what
Read 8 tweets
May 5
Those born in the 1890s experienced electrification, telephone, radio, television, nuclear age, penicillin, two world wars, commercial flight, computer age and a moon landing. By the 60s we had AI, VR and 3D printing.

Today, we have the internet / www and have improved stuff.
Is it me, or is human progress slowing down? Great breakthroughs, moments of change, and radical transformations seem like a thing of the past. What we call "revolutions" in industry today seems mostly a marketing slogan.
If you think back to 1957 and the Mark I Perceptron machine that was built at Cornell, then consider the changes in the previous 60 years ... you can't help but think they would be bitterly disappointed with how slow we have progressed in the following 60 years.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 25
No surprises, this was clearly signalled back in 2015.

During this decade has the US disentangled its reliance on China in the semiconductor industry?

I'll let you guess.
We will be entering a phase in which the US high-tech industry (including the military complex) is highly dependent upon China, whilst China is not dependent upon the US.
For those who doubt how clear the intentions were ... go read Made in China, 2025.

China's government made its intentions evident in 2015. The US sabre rattling of sanctions reinforced that purpose whilst the US essentially continued with a misguided "market knows best" policy.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 5
A couple of prompts with Claude 3 creates a Wardley Map for economic sovereignty in the defence space.

Not bad at all -

On par with political, military and defence folk I've spoken to. I'm also finding I can have a reasonable discussion about mapping with Claude 3.onlinewardleymaps.com/#clone:XvHskIi…Image
It's not perfect but it's not bad. There's more I want to interrogate Claude over ... i.e. the link to secure sourcing, the positioning of some components etc. But it's almost good enough that I can start a discussion over strategy and investment.
Anyway, upshot is that Claude 3, from my perspective, has left ChatGPT4 in the dust. Of course, I'll use Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini to cross-compare for now but if I do start building anything more complex then the obvious path is AWS Bedrock which gives me Mistral etc.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 28
dX: What is the single most significant problem facing AI today? Safety? Lack of skills? Inertia?
Me: Overinflated expectations by the business.
dX: You don't think AI will become widespread?
Me: Of course, it will; industrialised components are rapidly becoming cost of doing business. Don't confuse that with expectations. There will be an awful lot of disappointed businesses hoping it would create some advantage.
dX: I don't understand.
Me: Imagine you're just finishing off your plan for how AI will revolutionise your business. Six months for budget approval, one year to build team, 18 months to deliver something ... that's 3 years from now. Any advantage you thought of is long gone.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
For those who don't know, I'm working increasingly on and with Glamorous Toolkit - ... I have become fascinated by our willingness to blame humans for problems that are created by our toolsets ...gtoolkit.com
... I saw this last night at Cloud Camp. Apparently, the issues with understanding, explainability and observability in AI are down to humans' inability to deal with complex environments... no, they're not. The problem is with the tools and the type of tools we are creating ...
... we've imported concepts from a physical world where tools are constrained by physics - hence a hammer is a hammer, a drill is a drill - into a world without such constraints. Rather than building contextual tools, we've built constrained tools.
Read 7 tweets

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