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Dana Houle Profile picture
@DanaHoule
Oct 2, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
This means either they do everything for themselves, or they’re bringing SS agents, valets, intel briefers, etc in to the quarantine w them.
This also means he’ll be watching even more Fox than usual.
Everyone on that plane should be quarantined.
Quarantine “process” may mean nobody comes around him unless _they_ quarantine.
If Trump does get COVID, I’m sure a close friend of his will say “sir, everyone is saying that you have the best, most fantastic COVID that anyone has ever had”
Everyone—including me—has been talking mostly about the effects on the campaign. But this will make governing even more difficult than it already is.

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More from @DanaHoule

Dana Houle Profile picture
Aug 11
NYT/Sienna Harris v Trump, likely voters

A. Total as reported per NYT/Sienna

B. Head to head (only 2020 voters)

C. All candidates (only 2020 voters)

MI:
50-46
52-48
51-44

PA:
50-46
54-44
51-42

WI:
50-46
55-45
52-42

Limit it to 2020 voters & it’s a BLOWOUT
/1
These are the first NYT/Siena polls that have had Trump trailing. But like all the NYT/Siena polls, Trump does MUCH better bc of the respondents who didn’t vote in 2020

Now, it’s normal for there to be a not insignificant % of the electorate who didn’t vote in the previous…/2
…election. But 2020 was the highest turnout since women could vote. In most battleground states turnout of the voting eligible population was over 70%. How much of the population didn’t vote in the highest turnout election ever but will this time? And why do the 2020…/3
Read 6 tweets
Dana Houle Profile picture
Jul 2
1/ Democrats cannot nominate anyone except Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. It's impossible.

If the Biden candidacy ends, so does the Biden campaign. It's not transferable. Anyone else other than possibly Kamala Harris would have to start from nothing. That's can't be done.
2/It's possible I'm missing something, but I don't think so. Here's why the Democrats can nominate Joe Biden, or possibly Kamala Harris, but nobody else.

There's only one candidate with a 2024 presidential campaign committee registered with the Federal Election Commission
3/Some of the "stuff" of the Biden campaign can probably be transferred to the DNC (and maybe state parties), but most of it can't. Another candidate can't just take over Biden's campaign.

So, think about it.

A new nominee would not have a campaign. Like, not a tax ID...
Read 27 tweets
Dana Houle Profile picture
Jun 30
1/It’s possible the best option is Biden steps aside. But I think it’s more likely that would make things worse. I see lots of people saying Biden needs to step aside, I see almost nobody explaining what happens next & why that would be better

Bad vs not-bad doesn’t exist…
2/…in this situation. It’s about bad vs worse.

Not bad RE Biden’s performance; his performance has been stellar. Top ten President-caliber. And not certain that he’ll decline so badly he can’t effectively perform the duties of the office. Just bad that he’s 81.

That’s old…
3/ Actuarial tables are real things. Few people stave off significant decline in their 80’s. Of course it’s no certainty that being younger guarantees good health; I can attest to how being in excellent shape & decades younger than Biden is no protection from life-threatening…
Read 15 tweets
Dana Houle Profile picture
Jan 23
1/Last 3-4 weeks the vibes about the election have significantly shifted. For three years I’ve been asking why people assumed that after 1-6, Dobbs, indictments, & cognitive decline that Trump would keep or even add to his 2020 voters. It’s always been a bad assumption
2/Part of the problem, of course, has been the media polls, which have seemed predicated on similar or greater Trump turnout (as if there are a lot of people who didn’t vote in 2016 or 2020 but now, after all that has happened since Nov 2020, finally felt strongly…
3/…about Trump that _this_ time they’ll vote for him). Those polls have also showed 3rd party candidates getting 20% of the vote, which was evidence that they didn’t like their choices & hadn’t confronted the necessity to make a choice from the actual candidates…
Read 11 tweets
Dana Houle Profile picture
Dec 19, 2023
1/More about that NYT poll:

Likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 45%.

Among likely voters who voted in 2020?

Biden 53%
Trump 42%

10% of their respondents are non-2020 voters, which seems reasonable. But they favor Trump 55-33, which is wacky since they’ll skew young…
2/ FWIW, I doubt Biden is at 53% & leading by 11. Something more like 48-42 seems more plausible. But what I thing is happening—& I’ve talked to several pollsters & data people about this, it’s a mix mostly of what they’ve said—is public pollsters are worried…
3/…they’re not getting enough conservative Trump voters. That happened in 2016 & arguably did again in 2020. So, to compensate, I suspect they’re adjusting their samples to get more conservative samples of young & non-white voters. It’s a hedge against missing…
Read 14 tweets
Dana Houle Profile picture
Nov 13, 2023
1/ A. Trump seems more cognitively healthy than Biden
B. 1-6/indictments/trials will have no effects on voters
C. Biden’s 5 pt margin will be wiped away by Biden voters now pro-Trump or think Biden is as bad as Trump
D. After underperforming in 2018/2020/2022 Repubs are now…
2/…seen by voters as a functional & serious party capable of governing
E. Dobbs no longer matters to women
F. There’s a large poll of non-voters who will vote in 2024 & favor Trump by 15 points (as in the Siena polls)
G. Trials won’t hamper Trump’s campaigning or…
3/…campaigning won’t matter
H. Trump’s financial situation won’t hurt his ability to campaign, or it won’t be a problem bc his businesses are healthy & not imperiled legally
I. RFKJr’s anti-vax position will peel off more Biden voters than Trump voters
J. Wealthy…
Read 8 tweets

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