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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
@shashj
Oct 2, 2020 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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The essay by @KofmanMichael in this volume is the single most interesting thing I've read on NATO-Russia military questions for a long time. "While in the abstract NATO may appear superior ... in reality Excel spreadsheets don’t fight"
frivarld.se/wp-content/upl…
"The Russian General Staff would not expect the decisive phase of conflict to last beyond 2-3 weeks, at which time most precision-guided munitions would be expended and the war liable to escalate to nuclear employment." frivarld.se/wp-content/upl…
"From a Russian perspective, the initial period of war will be decided by the contest between aerospace assault and aerospace defense, and the ability of the two sides to destroy each other’s critical infrastructure. Ground forces matter little" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl… Image
"While Moscow expects any war with a coalition to constitute a regional war, there is a perplexing notion in the West that conflict can be localized to the Baltics ... a conflagration in the Baltics is a low probability event" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl… Image
"Those familiar with the last several decades of US combat operations would recognize that A2/AD as a strategy against US airpower is not especially viable, which is why Russian literature on the subject clearly indicates that they consider defense to be cost prohibitive"
"Russian operational-level thinking has leaned more towards the offensive ... far too much attention is paid in the West to the problem of getting forces into the theater, not enough time is spent on question of attrition in the initial period of warfare" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl…
On Russian options for escalation management. "These include deterrence by intimidation, the use of single or grouped strikes with conventional precision weapons, nuclear demonstration, and selective nuclear strikes in follow-on phases of conflict" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl… Image
"Whether NATO collectively responds to aggression is immaterial as long as the US commits and is afforded opportunity to do so by necessary allies .. without the US, even if all of NATO responds its chances of success in the initial period of war are slim" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl…
"deterrence remains a common place slogan for policies that are about anything except deterrence. Meanwhile, there is no strategy for dealing with Russia beyond sanctions, spending on military capability in Europe" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl… Image

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 18, 2025
"Retired Army Lt. Gen. @GenFlynn, who was once President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, was hired as a consultant for the Bosnian Serb republic eight years after he admitted to secretly working to benefit the Turkish government." washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/…
Essentially, corruption is being legalised (for some). Flynn 'joins Rod Blagojevich, the former Democratic governor of Illinois who went to prison on corruption charges, as the second person pardoned by Trump to work on behalf of the Bosnian Serb republic' washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/…
"The Trump administration also wiped away Biden-era sanctions levied in 2023 against Dodik’s children and several business entities that officials said he used to siphon public funds “and enrich himself and his family at the expense of [his] citizens and functional governance in the country.”...
So far this term, Trump has pardoned his most prominent allies involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 election results, the founder of an online drug market, former TV stars found guilty of fraud and tax evasion, and other people who have paid large sums of money to hire people who they believe have the president’s ear."
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 16, 2025
1/ The UK Parliament's intelligence & security committee (ISC) has published its first full annual report in two years, covering the administration and finance of the UK intelligence community. A few highlights below.
isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…Image
2/ As in previous reports, the committee notes that more & more departments are doing security & intel work compared to the past, and that the ISC doesn't have sight of these. "The impact of these matters has become more serious since then," it says. isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…Image
3/ ISC: "China’s state intelligence apparatus – almost certainly the largest in the world – targets the UK and its interests prolifically and aggressively, presenting a challenge for our Agencies to cover" isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/upl…
Read 25 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 15, 2025
1/ The first of two speeches by UK military / intelligence leaders today. The later one by Rich Knighton, the new chief of defence staff. This one by Blaise Metreweli, the chief of MI6. "We are now operating in a space between peace and war." gov.uk/government/spe…
2/ Metreweli says speech is not a "global threat tour". Says China "a central part of the global transformation taking place this century" and "essential that we, as MI6, continue to inform the govt's understanding of China’s rise and the implications for UK national security." Image
3/ Metreweli says "Russia is testing us in the grey zone with tactics that are just below the threshold of war" and includes "Drones buzzing airports and bases." About as close to an official attribution as you're going to get. gov.uk/government/spe…Image
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Dec 5, 2025
Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism." whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…Image
Trump national security strategy: Make Europe White Again.

"Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades ...certain NATO members will become majority non-European"

"the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure"

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…Image
As far as I can see, this nat sec strategy is far harsher on Europe than on Russia. There is no mention of a threat from Russia or of deterrence, only that "re-establishing strategic stability" is a priority. Europe is cast as a major threat to freedom.
Read 8 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Nov 21, 2025
The proposal is nothing short of a very bad joke. I mean, read this:

"$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
-- The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture."
There is a lot in the proposal that US & Ukr could agree without Europe. That is not true of this clause, which will never be agreed—like, ever.

"NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future."

google.com/amp/s/abcnews.…
The fact that this absurd and unworkable clause is in there is itself a suggestion that the proposal is the basis for further negotiation and not a "take it or leave it"
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Oct 1, 2025
"military assessments seen by the FT show that Yantar was one of several Russian naval vessels that congregated in UK waters for 13 months of sustained surveillance around nodes of critical infrastructure starting in the autumn of 2023." ft.com/content/0b3510…
"adversaries could interfere with the timing signals in underwater communication cables by altering the frequency of pulses passing through them — causing severe disruption in time-sensitive industries such as high-frequency trading." ft.com/content/0b3510…
AIS/radar analysis "suggests that this vessel [Yantar] was stationary for several hours in a small stretch of sea containing three major cables — the CeltixConnect-2, Geo-Eirgrid and Rockabill—all of which are data connections linking Ireland with the UK." ft.com/content/0b3510…
Read 4 tweets

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