Thread by @iyad_elbaghdadi

The myth of Trump's invulnerability has persisted since 2016 and into 2020. Some are still speculating that "this could be in Trump's favor". The powerful have such a track record in exploiting chaos that sometimes we wonder if anything can hurt them. This is self-gaslighting.

I can't see any universe in which this is "good for Trump". First of all, he could get very sick and even die. He's a 74 yr old obese man with a stressful life. He won't be able to campaign during the critical last month. He'll be tweeting, unless he gets too sick for that.

Worst for Trump, this puts his incompetence and recklessness and stupidity on full display. He couldn't protect himself, let alone the country. He couldn't test his own staff, let alone the country. He played fast & loose with the virus and so did his family.

He mocked masks, to the point that rejecting masks has become one of the distinguishing features of his base. He even mocked masks during the debates a couple nights ago. He mocked scientists and spread disinformation - and now he needs the best scientists to keep him healthy.

The election is in just 32 days. He won't be able to hold rallies, he won't be able to go to meetings or town halls, he won't be able to come back from his terrible debate performance with a new one. He won't be able to travel. He won't be able to meet anybody.

And all that's assuming he doesn't get so sick that Pence has to run the country. And even that's assuming that Pence didn't contract the virus (at 61 years old, Pence is a senior citizen too). Funny that if both the president and vice president are incapacitated, it's Pelosy.

We also don't know how many other members of Trump's inner circle were infected. They all came on that same flight and didn't wear masks. If the Trump children got infected it means they have to also quarantine and can't do campaign events on their father's behalf.

We don't know which of these scenarios will play out, but until things clarify, expect Trump to sit in front of a TV and rage-tweet. I just hope Biden & his team test negative - if safe, they could be running loops around Trump while he's quarantined (or sick).

Now this will come as no shock but a key core of the Trump base (rather, the Trump cult) will continue to support him. Understand, it's not just about Trump but about what Trump represents for them. They will not let reality disavow them of the necessity of a Trump figure.