IT’S EXTRAORDINARILY EARLY, we don’t know much at the moment, and we all need to be vigilant about everything we say and suppose. But here are some early points to frame your thinking:
1) EVERY MOVE MADE, every word uttered and tweet published by the White House will be under a microscope as the world tries to understand the health of the most powerful man in the world. We will be looking this morning for test results and assurance from @vp and @SpeakerPelosi
@VP@SpeakerPelosi 2) THE WHITE HOUSE does not have the public’s trust, and at a time like this, that’s important.
@VP@SpeakerPelosi 3) THE PRESIDENT will be quarantined for some time, so the 2020 CAMPAIGN as we knew it will be effectively paused in its final stretch. How can they allow TRUMP in a room with the 77-year-old JOE BIDEN? How can TRUMP hold another in-person rally? It seems extremely unlikely.
@VP@SpeakerPelosi THE ENTIRETY of the president’s political message was that he handled the coronavirus pandemic well, the end was in sight, and people should think back to before the onset of the virus when they consider their vote. TRUMP’S diagnosis will make that quite tricky.
4) ONE WOULD IMAGINE the administration and the Congress will do everything they can to preserve the health of the rest of the chain of command.
That means that PENCE, PELOSI and Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) will likely have to take extra precautions. PELOSI is 80 and GRASSLEY is 87. They are No. 2 and No. 3 in the line of succession, after PENCE.
5) BIDEN will certainly be tested. Political and financial markets will be incredibly interested in his results.
6) THE PRESIDENT’S DIAGNOSIS should, theoretically, force Congress to rethink its testing regime. Reminder: Members of Congress are forced to travel to D.C. to vote, but they are not tested. THE HOUSE is going to leave after today.
THE SENATE will be in next week -- as of now. There will be an effort to show government can still operate with the commander in chief sidelined.
TRUMP’S ILLNESS could have long-term political and practical implications, but, as of now, it appears as if the government will continue to operate as normal in the short term. Federal agencies have been operating in a pandemic mode for months.
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS swarming Capitol Hill. White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS has been in contact with SCOTUS nominee AMY CONEY BARRETT, Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL and a host of other key GOP senators...
. Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN, who typically wears a mask, was at an in-person meeting with PELOSI on Wednesday.
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After speaking all day to top House Republicans, here's are the options for reconciliation.
stay the course -- and pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Johnson is an optimist. You gotta give him that. The Louisiana Republican has maintained that the mess that we’re seeing right now is all part of what he calls the “deliberative process.” Fair enough. There’s certainly a lot of deliberating going on.
But there’s a path — a narrow path — for House Republicans to get a budget resolution allowing “one big beautiful bill” to move forward.
Following a very long meeting in the speaker’s office Tuesday night that included GOP leadership, committee chairs and some of the hardliners, there were signs of progress, although no agreement yet.
“I think when you look at where we are, we’re close to a trillion [dollars in cuts] and still working,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters afterward.
Scalise added that House GOP leaders “are focused on” trying to mark up a budget resolution next week.
They’ve also directed all the committees involved in this process to come up with more spending cuts. “We’re working on details for each committee,” Scalise said. “But we have gone back to each committee to increase those numbers. We’re not done on it.”
Plus, Republicans will think expansively about how to count savings — DOGE, projected 3% economic growth and a juiced economy from slashing regulations.
Then there’s Trump.
Can Trump, who has had limited legislative success during his first term, get Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) to back Johnson’s plan? Trump hasn’t yet leaned on lawmakers to get the reconciliation process going. By next week, he may have to.
Switch to two bills.
Hold onto your hat, Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.). There are House Republicans talking about the Budget Committee switching course and marking up the dual-track reconciliation process that Smith, the Ways and Means Committee chair, has railed against for months.
Trump says he doesn’t care if there’s one bill or two bills as long as his agenda gets approved. There are plenty of senior aides in the White House who want two bills. And the House Freedom Caucus wants two also.
The first reconciliation package would have defense spending, energy policy and border security provisions. The second reconciliation package — the tax-cut portion — would be punted until later. When exactly is unclear.
Smith doesn’t like the two-bill approach. In his view, that puts tax cuts at risk. Yet if the Budget Committee remains stuck, House Republicans may not have a choice.
Chip Roy, the floor is yours.
There’s always an inclination in House Republican leadership to say something like this: “OK, Freedom Caucus. If you think your idea is so great, give it a shot, and let’s see how it goes.”
Play this out with us for a moment. What if Johnson tells Roy, Norman and the other conservative holdouts that they should write whatever budget resolution they want, try to push it through the Budget Committee and the full House, and then see what the Senate will do with it?
Of course, a Freedom Caucus-favored package may not get through the Budget Committee. If it does, it could fail on the House floor. And it will certainly get ripped to shreds in the Senate.
But there’s utility in that exercise to show that hardliners need to drop their draconian spending-cut demands and embrace a bill that can actually become law. That’s the real goal of legislating, right?
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