Belatedly catching up with Test & Trace data from yday. Good news is on most metrics the performance of Pillar 2 tests (the private bit of the testing network) have improved from the previous week.
⬇️Time taken to get a test result
⬇️Distance travelled to get a test
That said, across the whole of pillar 2 in England the percentage of people getting test results within 24 hours of taking a test is still just 17% as of 17-23 Sep (eg last week). That's still a lot lower than earlier this summer as you can see from this chart:
Actually when it comes to test turnaround the one area where test processing/delivery seems to be slowing down is pillar 1, which is primarily hospital labs - the bit of the system that had held up best thus far
The Test & Trace stats also provide us with a more reliable measure of the percentage of positive #COVID19 tests. A useful sense check of the case data we get each day. Consistent with UK continuing to follow French/Spanish trajectory. Let's also see what @ONS data says shortly
Breaking: @ONS survey of #COVID19 infections in England has been released.
This is the best measure we have of the prevalence of the disease.
And the good news is it seems the growth rate has slowed since last week.
Ties in with what we're seeing elsewhere in the case numbers
Important to provisos about the @ONS survey.
It's based on modelling; it can change a lot from week to week.
Even so, the picture painted by today's survey is tentatively reassuring.
The disease is still spreading.
But the rate at which cases are multiplying seems to be slowing
Poss the most reassuring #COVID19 chart in months.
This is @ONS’s measure of daily new #COVID19 cases in England - the best measure of its spread, unaffected by testing shortages.
Look: it’s still spreading but the growth rate has flattened.
Early days, but this is promising…
Few reasons to remain cautious despite slowing in @ONS new cases rate: 1. Data can be choppy from week to week 2. #COVID19 still growing; NB we’re talking about the RATE of growth. 3. On basis of what we’re seeing in France/Spain actually getting new cases to FALL takes time…
Finally, it’s clear from the @ONS survey as well as plenty of other sources (eg @PHE_uk data today) that there are hotspots of the disease where, unlike the national picture, it is still spreading.
This is a dangerous disease.
No cause for complacency.
Keep focusing on the data.
Update: 6,968 new #COVID19 cases in UK in past 24 hours, acc to Gov.uk dashboard.
UK case trajectory remains in line with France/Spain.
Rising - but at a slower rate than previous weeks.
Doubling time for cases currently about 30 days on basis of past week
Some people have asked me whether the daily #COVID19 case figs are reliable. Aren’t they distorted by test availability? Here’s one way of gauging that - comparing them (the red line) to the v reliable @ONS survey (black). Key thing is shape - if it’s similar that’s a good sign.
Key thing in this chart is not the difference in levels but the relative similarity in steepness of the recent rise.
The growth in cases we’ve been hearing abt each day isn’t that different from the @ONS one.
Yes that’s a log scale.
Yes it’s England vs UK.
This is a sense check.
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V interesting new analysis out today from the @IPPR.
There have been plenty of reports saying we need to do what we can to rebuild manufacturing & grow green tech.
But WHICH SECTORS could the UK actually compete in? This report provides some of the answers news.sky.com/story/rapid-st…
Full report here👇
It's precisely the kind of forensic work this govt (or the next one) needs to do on industrial strategy. We can't hope to compete with China & the US in EVERY field. So what do we focus on?
They say: heat pumps, wind and green transport ippr.org/articles/manuf…
Now a few key charts from the @ippr report. Some are also in the TV report we're running on @skynews today.
First off (and most depressingly) the UK has deindustrialised faster than any other developed economy. We've actually LOST a lot of our expertise and competencies
🧵
Joe Biden has just confirmed he's going to raise the special tariff on electric vehicles coming from China to 100%.
Also new tariffs on batteries and solar panels.
What's going on here?
Here's a quick primer with some charts 👇
First off, a recap on what's happened with tariffs.
The standard tariff on cars is 2.5% - that's what most other nations pay.
Trump levied an extra 25% tariff on China in 2018.
Now far from changing course, Biden is doubling down - or rather quadrupling down.
Now it'll be 102.5%
Why is this happening?
Well, a big part of it is politics.
But the other part of it comes back to this chart👇
China has come from nowhere in the past few years to become a car exporting powerhouse.
Just look!
And this is almost entirely because of electric cars
I hate to be pedantic (and no doubt this will mean I'll be labelled as one of those doomsters @KemiBadenoch is calling out here) but there's a few problems with the data the biz/trade sec is quoting here.
When you correct them, the picture looks a little different...
🧵
Let's start with the big one.
In all the charts in the @biztradegovuk document she quotes from, it looks like export volumes are bigger than ever before 👇
Hurrah!
Except this is true only when you fail to adjust for inflation. Which, as we all know, has been VERY high recently
Let's take the same @ONS database and use the inflation-adjusted series, as we really should when comparing flows over time.
Suddenly, what looked like an ever-increasing volume of trade is actually a lot more flat.
Goods exports (dark blue bars) are still well below pre-Brexit.
NEW
Britain's motoring lobby group the @SMMT has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in car exports to Azerbaijan has NOTHING to with Russia and is explained by the fact that this former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
This is rather... odd
🧵
Before we get onto that, some background (thread on this here👇).
TLDR: UK car exports to Russia have collapsed, because of sanctions. But UK car exports to countries neighbouring Russia have suddenly risen by nearly the same amount. Esp Azerbaijan
Following my original report we now have new figs on UK car exports.
They show flows to Azerbaijan have continued. £42m in Jan. 3rd highest EVER.
Now there's no way of being 100% sure what's going on here. you can't track consignments beyond Azerbaijan (if they ever reach Az)
🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
Let's start at the start.
Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
So when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not without significance that all Britain's major carmakers said they would stop sending their cars to Russia.
Anyway, shortly afterwards, the UK imposed sanctions which made it illegal to do so anyway...
There are two sanctions of note here.
First, UK companies cannot send "dual use" items to Russia which could be turned into weapons.
Second, there was a specific ban on the sale of any car over £42k👇
So it's pretty simple. No cars. Esp not luxury cars. legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/452/…
💷BUDGET THREAD💷
A few thoughts on what was supposed to be a big event but ended up feeling, well, a wee bit thin.
And that’s the first thing to say.
Strikingly, this Budget was HALF as big as the Autumn Statement. Look at the difference between the scorecard totals 👇
Was it a tax-cutting Budget?
I mean… not really.
Well, OK, the net impact is taxes aren’t going up as quickly as they were 6 months ago.
But (and I think this is pretty crucial) THEY’RE STILL GOING UP. The tax burden will be higher at the end of this Parliament than before.
Here’s a good illustration of that.
The bars here show you the impact, across the economy, of the decision a few Budgets ago to freeze tax allowances. The bars are in negative territory.
People are paying more in taxes as they get dragged into higher thresholds…