1/6 I would think as #TILS move through the process to demerge Accustem Sciences, the SP should start to trend higher.
Today's RNS confirms the easy bit with the court hearings being the true barrier, be it I see little problem in getting through them.
2/6 I don't buy a £280m IPO valuation because they won't have a test ready for market. Whilst the CE Mark process is 'planned' to begin in November 2020, it won't be completed until well after the IPO.
However, I am certainly enthused by Executive Chairman Gabriele Cerrone's
3/6 "beneficial interest" in the c. 33% of TILS, that is owned by Planwise Group LTD.
What that says is that the push will certainly be on, to maximise the IPO and minimise the dilution required.
I talk about dilution because it will inevitably come with the IPO,
4/6 because c. £1m isn't going to get their product to market.
That said it holds no fear for me, for reasons stated above and the fact that it won't require a huge sum, to get this test to market in 2021.
Therefore, the raise could in fact end up acting as the catalyst,
5/6 for the IPO valuation itself and the subsequent market reaction immediately afterwards.
So on balance, it is for me better to be a shareholder who owns shares prior to the first days trading, as opposed to seeking them later in the market.
6/6 When i start to factor in such things as the Brazil Covid treatment trial, which could act as parallel driver front end, plus the PR driven mentality of the BOD, that view point only strengthens.
So the reward of holding now, certainly out shines the risk for me.
1A
As the temporary reaction in the SP just demonstrated.
Its going to take something a bit more tangible to drive #TILS north but it is for me coming.
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1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.
With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/ The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.
The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/ The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.
That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.
They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025.
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/ Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.
Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/ Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.
It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
1/9 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/ Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.
So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/ Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.
At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.