Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

October 2, 2020 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update

Current data as of 6 am.

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #covid19quebec #COVID19toronto

22 newly reported deaths in all of Canada (population: 37,971,020).

(Note that only 2 of the 16 QC deaths are new: +2 in past 24 hours, +12 occurring between Sept. 24-29, +2 occurring before Sept. 24)

Total deaths: 9,319 (245 deaths per million people in Canada or 0.02%).

Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.3% of covid deaths.

This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages).

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Bear in mind that the risk of death will sadly always rise in line with one's advancing age.

In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

If considered as a wholly distinct and separate cause of death in Canada, Covid-19 may be the 6th leading cause of death in 2020, much like influenza and pneumonia.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.

Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths: 2,851 (193 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.02%).

More deaths over 90 (917) than under 80 (903).

Ontario now reports:

- 36 in ICU

- 17 in ICU on a ventilator

Ontario now reports:

- 162 in hospital

- 36 in ICU

- 17 in ICU on a ventilator

A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason.

Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line) has fallen from ~15% at peak.

Ontario “Second Wave”:

- Hosp/ICU: Increase in growth rates has slowed

- Deaths: Low base values skew % rates

- Cases (positive tests): growth rate may have peaked

- Growth is not exponential

- Crossing 0% again may signal a peak (mid-Oct?)

The Ontario government's ramping up of testing and easing of testing criteria have likely affected the number of cases (positive test results).

Positive test results may rise further as the government works toward its goals of 50,000 and then 78,000 daily tests.

The positivity rate on tests conducted in Ontario (yellow line) has fallen markedly from the spring peak.

*Hypothetical:

This chart normalizes cases (positive test results) to show how many would have been reported since March 1 if:

1. the current level of testing (daily avg over past 7 days) had been maintained throughout, and

2. no changes to positivity rates reported earlier.

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2014-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

City of Toronto (population: 2,731,571 or 19% of Ontario):

Total deaths: 1,182 (433 deaths per every million people in Toronto or 0.04%)

12 deaths since August 1, 2020

41.5% of Ontario deaths

Québec (population: 8,552,362):

Total deaths: 5,850 (684 deaths per every million people in QC or 0.07%).

(Note that Québec backdates newly reported deaths.)

Québec now reports:

- 46 in ICU (aux soins intensifs)

Québec now reports:

- 275 in hospital

- 46 in ICU (aux soins intensifs)

Québec - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line) has fallen from ~15% at peak.

The Québec government's level of testing has likely had an impact on the number of cases (positive test results).

The proportion of people in Québec testing positive on tests (yellow line) has fallen markedly from the spring peak but has been moving upward since mid-August.

Note that QC reports on number of people tested, not simply number of tests (unlike ON).