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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Too many are "misreading" the polls, betting markets and investor opinion around the election. They are not the same.

Please read this short thread ….

The poll analyzers were only giving Trump a 10% to 20% chance of winning (shown are FiveThirtyEight and the Economist)

(1/5)
Betting markets gave Trump a 42% chance of winning yesterday before the announcement of the positive COVID test. His odds were 47% before Tuesday’s debate. Now they give Trump a 39% chance. This marks Biden’s largest lead.

(2/5)
Investors were more aligned with the betting markets than the polls.

FT – (Sep 25) Investors anticipate Joe Biden election win

UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in Sep, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win

(3/5)
The difference between polls and bettors was going to be reconciled by election day. Today’s announcement that Trump tested positive for COVID only accelerates the process.

Betting markets are reducing Trump’s odds of victory and are aligning more closely with the polls.

(4/5)
We have contended the markets never fully priced in a Biden victory (and the increased regulation and higher taxes that come with it). Based on trading this morning, it appears they are now taking the prospect of a Biden presidency more seriously.

(5/5)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 16
It turns out that the biggest soap opera in Trump's nominations is the Treasury Secretary. As the graphic below shows, it is as close to 50/50 as it gets.
---

My Take

The Treasury Secretary gets to sit in the room and opine on policy. And their voice will be taken seriously.

But they do not set the policy; the President does. When the president says what they will do, they expect the Treasury Secretary to sell that policy as if it were theirs.

The second part, selling something they don't believe in but are told to do, is something Jamie Dimon will never do, so he will never be the Treasury Secretary. (Dimon wants to tell everyone else what they should sell).

Lutnick will sell whatever you tell him and do it with gusto! Bessert will do so too, but he does not command the room like Lutnick.

In other words, the Treasury Secretary is the administration's chief spokesman. This is a sales job, and it needs a salesperson.

The problem with Yellen was that she needed to be a better salesperson. Yes, she is an outstanding economist, but she was never a good spokesperson for the Biden Agenda.

She would have been a better National Economic Council head, the "smart person in the shadows advising the President."

If I had to guess ....

Lutnick = Treasury Secretary
Bessert = National Economic Council headImage
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 7
1/6
Six questions I would ask Powell (which, of course, he will not answer).

1. Why did this happen? Image
2/6
2. Question 1 caused this. How is this helping? Image
3/6
3. I know you think inflation has either been defeated or is about to be defeated. So, why did the market react this way after you cut in September? Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 4
1/6
An update 🧵

We manage a fixed-income total return index. It is based on our discretion.

It is called The Bianco Research Total Return Fixed-Income Index.

On Bloomberg, it is BTRINDX <index>, or at its website biancoadvisors.com
2/6
As of Friday, November 1st, our Index outperformed the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index by 107 basis points. Image
3/6
The WisdomTree Bianco Fund (symbol: $WTBN) tracks our Index.

This is set up similarly to $SPY. The S&P Index Committee manages the S&P 500, and the ETF $SPY tracks it.

We operate our Index, and $WTBN tracks it.
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 2
1/3
The Sahm Rule was Triggered in July, red bars. This means a recession has ALREADY STARTED. (The definition is on the chart).

It was "un-triggered" with the October unemployment rate.

@Claudia_Sahm Image
2/3
The Sahm Rule works because once it is triggered, the unemployment rate soars.

The last time it was triggered and then un-triggered a few months later was in 1959 when the recession was still 2 1/2 years away. Image
3/3
This unusual action underscores the idea that the Labor market is very different post-pandemic. Even Claudia has argued this.

What has changed?

See the black line below; the country's population is exploding—blue and red detail where it is coming from.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 2
1/6
Like you, I see the regular posts about the Spot BTC inflow records. Running out of superlatives.

They are correct. We have never seen anything like it.

@JSeyff @EricBalchunas @Matt_Hougan @dotkrueger @btcjvs @fejau_inc @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @MikeIppolito_ @NateGeraci
2/6
Why isn't the price going up? (orange)

Since the BTC ATH on March 13 ($74.3k):
* Spot BTC ETFs flows >$12B (blue)
* The halving (April 19)
* Trump endorsement (July)
* Tech/SPX mania
* Fed Cut (Sept)

The price should have hit $100k months ago.

Instead, it's down 4%. Image
3/6
At the same time, money has been pouring into gold ETFs, >$6B since March 13.

And Gold's price is screaming higher, up 25%.

Why is gold soaring when BTC cannot go up despite an almost never-ending stream of bullish news? Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Oct 31
1/5
My Favorite Anecdote About The Economy

A good way to measure the perceived health of the US economy is to measure the public's ability to spend on things they want but do not need, aka discretionary spending.

🧵
2/5
The Conference Board's survey of 3,000 Households asking whether they are planning a foreign vacation in the next six months.

This month, the survey hit another all-time high: 22% of US households say they will vacation overseas in the next six months. Image
3/5
A foreign vacation is something that absolutely nobody needs but absolutely everybody wants.

You only agree to potentially spend several thousand dollars if you are confident about your job,
investments, and the overall state of the economy.

Couple this with: Image
Read 5 tweets

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