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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Too many are "misreading" the polls, betting markets and investor opinion around the election. They are not the same.

Please read this short thread ….

The poll analyzers were only giving Trump a 10% to 20% chance of winning (shown are FiveThirtyEight and the Economist)

(1/5)
Betting markets gave Trump a 42% chance of winning yesterday before the announcement of the positive COVID test. His odds were 47% before Tuesday’s debate. Now they give Trump a 39% chance. This marks Biden’s largest lead.

(2/5)
Investors were more aligned with the betting markets than the polls.

FT – (Sep 25) Investors anticipate Joe Biden election win

UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in Sep, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win

(3/5)
The difference between polls and bettors was going to be reconciled by election day. Today’s announcement that Trump tested positive for COVID only accelerates the process.

Betting markets are reducing Trump’s odds of victory and are aligning more closely with the polls.

(4/5)
We have contended the markets never fully priced in a Biden victory (and the increased regulation and higher taxes that come with it). Based on trading this morning, it appears they are now taking the prospect of a Biden presidency more seriously.

(5/5)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 28
1/4
Everyone needs to calm down about the Atlanta Fed GDPnow flipping to negative (chart).

It was driven by one statistic, merchandise trade imports, which can snap back as early as next month and take GDPnow back up.

The world is not ending. Image
2/4
Here is the Merchandise trade deficit.

I labeled the last three months to show how much it blew out (and March 2022). Image
3/4
The trade deficit exploded in the last three months, as well as March 2022, due to the surge in imports (orange) while exports (blue) remained relatively unchanged.
---
The Ukraine War started in March 2022, and importers rushed to import products (such as grain) from the Black Sea area ahead of potential disruption.

Similarly, the last three months have seen importers rush to bring goods into the country ahead of Trump's tariffs.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 24
1/7
Two major problems need to be addressed, and yes, I agree they cannot be ignored anymore (think @HoweGeneration fourth turning).

The first is the debt situation, as @nfergus detailed:

2/7
The US cannot continue this level of deficit/debt. Increasing taxes and spending cuts will not correct this without hurting the economy.

2024 deficits were 6.58% of GDP. This happens in major crises (civil war, WW2, etc.). What is the major crisis now? Too much debt? Image
3/7
The chart above shows that we have never seen this level of deficits with full employment. A cocktail to explode inflation higher.

Maybe DOGE, Gov't layoffs, or deportations can correct this. It must be corrected.

And cutting spending does not address debt levels. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 22
1/16

A thread on The Mar-A-Lago Accord (MALA).

tl:dr

Take it seriously, not literally

The status quo cannot last. If we do nothing, it ends badly. What is the alternative?

Most of it has either already happened, or is underway. We weren't aware of the name.
2/16

Powell on Dec 4, 2024 - “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path. The debt is not at an unsustainable level, but the path is unsustainable, and we know that we have to change that"

thehill.com/business/50225…
3/16

He's right, we can no longer do nothing. That will result in disaster. Something has to change.

And that is not trying harder to raise taxes and cut spending.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.

New approach is needed (MALA) Image
Read 19 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jan 17
1/5
I have not posted a spot $BTC ETF update in a while, so here is one.

These ETFs started trading a year ago (Jan 11, 2024). Their total assets are $114 billion. (Note that they started at $29B on day 1 due to the $GBTC conversion.)

Three funds make up the vast majority. Image
2/5
The net NEW money invested in all Spot BTC ETFs was $36.69B (bottom panel).

This excludes the $29B of $GBTC conversion on day 1. Image
3/5
The dollar cost average purchase price is $BTC $74.3k (blue line), representing an unrealized gain of ~25%, or $12.73B (bottom panel).

All these gains came after the election. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jan 3
1/5
*US DEC. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES TO 49.3; EST. 48.2

ISM beat

And as the chart shows, this is the second-highest reading since October 2022 (26 months).

(best sure to see the last post in this thread)Image
2/5
Prices Paid 52.5 versus the estimate of 51.8

It is staying "sticky" above 50 (meaning more rising than falling prices)

Remind me again ... why is the Fed cutting rates? Image
3/5
New Orders is in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Economists think it is that important.

It jumped to 52.5, equaling its highest reading since June 2022 (the month YoY CPI hit 9%).

Remind me again: why is the Fed cutting rates? Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Dec 29, 2024
1/3
The repost below expresses a common belief that risk assets are effective inflation hedges.

History suggests they are not.

This chart shows that the inflation of the 1960s and 1970s wiped out 64% of the after-inflation stock gains by 1982 (meaning inflation beat stocks by 64%). And all inflation-adjusted gains of the previous 27+ years (back to 1954) were gone (meaning inflation beat stocks over the previous 27 years).

It took until 1992, 28 years later, for stocks to finally start beating cumulative inflation since 1966.Image
2/3
Too many vastly underestimate the devastating impact of inflation.

Since the 2021 peak, when the Fed called inflation"transitory," stocks have only beaten inflation by just 15% (with dividends).

So a 10% to 12% correct and a little bit more inflation and four years of relative purchasing power is gone (meaning you are no better off than four years ago).Image
3/3
As I argue here, the crypto crowd also forgets inflation when they make their long-term forecasts.

Read 4 tweets

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