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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Too many are "misreading" the polls, betting markets and investor opinion around the election. They are not the same.

Please read this short thread ….

The poll analyzers were only giving Trump a 10% to 20% chance of winning (shown are FiveThirtyEight and the Economist)

(1/5)
Betting markets gave Trump a 42% chance of winning yesterday before the announcement of the positive COVID test. His odds were 47% before Tuesday’s debate. Now they give Trump a 39% chance. This marks Biden’s largest lead.

(2/5)
Investors were more aligned with the betting markets than the polls.

FT – (Sep 25) Investors anticipate Joe Biden election win

UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in Sep, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win

(3/5)
The difference between polls and bettors was going to be reconciled by election day. Today’s announcement that Trump tested positive for COVID only accelerates the process.

Betting markets are reducing Trump’s odds of victory and are aligning more closely with the polls.

(4/5)
We have contended the markets never fully priced in a Biden victory (and the increased regulation and higher taxes that come with it). Based on trading this morning, it appears they are now taking the prospect of a Biden presidency more seriously.

(5/5)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 7
1/4
I fear this is spot on.

@CryptoNobler's thread unpacks $BTC's "synthetic supply" problem. ETFs, structured notes (@CryptoHayes), futures, options, swaps, lending—all flood the system with "paper" BTC.

When it swamps real demand, price crashes.

x.com/CryptoNobler/s… x.com/coinbureau/sta…
2/4
@CryptoHayes: structured notes on $IBIT flooded $BTC with synthetic supply → forced liquidations turbocharged the dump.

Next rally? TradFi piles into ETFs → Wall Street "prints" more synthetics.

Price discovery decoupled from on-chain.

Volatility on steroids
3/4
Wall Street's entry turned BTC into a pseudo-fractional reserve system.

21M cap? On-chain only—price discovery swims in synthetic street "printing."

Fractional is inherently unstable. That's why banks need heavy regs (Fed/Treasury/OCC/FDIC).

On-chain BTC only needs code.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 1
1/6
10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.

These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts.

Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B.
🧵 Image
2/6
The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM).

These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation.

The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%. Image
3/6
The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel).

Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jan 19
1/11

What is Housing?

Affordable shelter or path to retirement?

It cannot be both.

We tried to make it both in the early 2000s and almost wrecked the financial system.

🧵 Image
2/11

The average home price is $417K (above), an all-time high.

This means around 43% of a median household income (~$84K) goes to housing.

For the last three years, this has been comparable to the (unsustainable) housing peak in 2006. Image
3/11

For 50 years, from the end of World War II through 1997 (red box), housing was affordable. Prices rose by the inflation rate.

In other words, it held its value but remained within reach of most renters/first-time homebuyers. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jan 4
1/5
Thoughts on market reaction to the Venezuela news.

tl:dr

The spigot in Venezuela waiting to be opened to flood the world with crude oil and lower its price has been broken for a while.

It will take several years to fix it.
2/5
Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC their official statistics show its production (blue) is down 71% from its 1998 peak.

Its sustainable capacity (max output in within 90 days and held for a year) is 1M barrels/day (orange).

Venezuela is at its maximum now. Image
3/5
Why the big production decline?

Socialist Hugo Chávez was elected in December 1998. He turned out to be a brutal dictator. Only to be replaced by an even more brutal dictator, Nicolás Maduro, when Chávez died in March 2013.
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 27, 2025
1/7
This analysis concludes by saying "something is seriously wrong with the housing market."

Not based on this chart.

tl:dr - New home sizes are falling to account for this spread falling below zero. Adjust for that, and there is nothing to see here.

Short 🧵
2/7
Same chart with prices in the top panel.

It is correct that the new home premium (green) above existing home prices (blue) has collapsed from 38% in 2013 to below zero today (the lowest in 54 years).

Why?

See new home prices (orange), they stalled. Image
3/7
Here is the average home price (orange) and the home's size (blue). The reason prices are falling is that builders are constructing smaller homes.

But as the bottom panel shows (green), the price per square foot is as high as ever.

No bear market, just smaller homes. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 25, 2025
1/8
Following @deanbaker and @ezraklein ...

Homeowners will not tolerate a "fix" that will lower prices. So, nothing will get done about affordability.
=
What is housing?

* Affordable shelter?
* Piggy bank that funds retirement?

Both cannot be true at the same time.
2/8
For the 50 years following WWII (box), home price gains kept pace with inflation ("real" prices), making housing affordable.

Starting in the late 90s, housing went into wild boom-bust cycles.

This is when housing started to be viewed as a piggy bank to fund retirement. Image
3/8
400 years of real (inflation-adjusted) home prices in Amsterdam show that housing has remained affordable for centuries.

This view began to break down in the late 1990s, as housing became the piggy bank for retirement. Image
Read 8 tweets

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