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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Too many are "misreading" the polls, betting markets and investor opinion around the election. They are not the same.

Please read this short thread ….

The poll analyzers were only giving Trump a 10% to 20% chance of winning (shown are FiveThirtyEight and the Economist)

(1/5)
Betting markets gave Trump a 42% chance of winning yesterday before the announcement of the positive COVID test. His odds were 47% before Tuesday’s debate. Now they give Trump a 39% chance. This marks Biden’s largest lead.

(2/5)
Investors were more aligned with the betting markets than the polls.

FT – (Sep 25) Investors anticipate Joe Biden election win

UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in Sep, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win

(3/5)
The difference between polls and bettors was going to be reconciled by election day. Today’s announcement that Trump tested positive for COVID only accelerates the process.

Betting markets are reducing Trump’s odds of victory and are aligning more closely with the polls.

(4/5)
We have contended the markets never fully priced in a Biden victory (and the increased regulation and higher taxes that come with it). Based on trading this morning, it appears they are now taking the prospect of a Biden presidency more seriously.

(5/5)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jul 13
1/3
Powell may have given Trump an opening to remove him. Will Trump take it?

Or, does Trump want/need "Too Late" Powell to stay as Fed Chairman until May 2026 to use as a punching bag?

🧵
2/3
The OMB Director and Acting CFPB Director @russvought laid out the charges of lying to Congress and mismanaging the renovation of the Fed (Eccles) building.

Powell has until July 22 to respond.

3/3
While the betting market still has Powell getting fired at less than 50%, it is now trending higher.
--
The Federal Reserve Act says that a Fed Governor (including the Chair) may be removed “for cause by the President.”

However, “for cause” is not defined in the statute and has never been tested in court in this context.

I would argue "for cause" is not a disagreement over Monetary Policy ("too late" cutting rates), but can be lying to Congress and/or mismanaging the rules around renovating the Fed (Eccles) building?

Powell said this to the Senate Banking Committee on June 25, 2025, as part of the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
---
"Generally, I would just say we do take seriously our responsibility as stewards of the public’s money. ... There’s no VIP dining room. There’s no new marble—we took down the old marble, we’re putting it back up. We’ll have to use new marble where some of the old marble broke. But there’s no special elevators; there’s just old elevators that have been there. There are no new water features. There’s no beehives, and there’s no roof terrace gardens."
---
Technically, Powell is correct because the renovation has not been completed. However, such details are outlined in some plans for the renovations.

Is this a big deal? No. However, if Trump is looking for ANY reason to remove Powell, this might be enough. And it might be enough "for cause" that the Supreme Court will uphold it.

Furthermore, no one in Congress wants to spend any political capital defending a $2.5 billion marble Washington, D.C. building with private elevators, beehives, and private roof terraces.
---
Bottom line, Powell may have given Trump an opening to remove him. Will Trump take it?

Or, does Trump want/need "Too Late" Powell to stay as Fed Chairman until May 2026 to use as a punching bag?Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jul 1
1/8
Yesterday, Jim appeared on Bloomberg TV, warning that if the Fed cuts rates and the market thinks this is wrong, 10-year yields could surge through 5%.

(Perspective ... 10-year yields were last above 5% in October 2023 and as high as 4.85% in January).

🧵
2/8
President Trump disagrees with this thinking and believes the federal funds rate should be 1% right now.

From a "truth" posted on June 30. Image
3/8
If (or should I say when) Trump gets a Fed Chair to make 1% happen, how will the 10-year react?

Reminder of what happened last year to long rates when the Fed cuts rates (peach arrow) and the market does not think it's a good idea (cyan arrow). Image
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 26
1/4
I would argue that if the Fed cuts rates and you assume mortgage rates follow the federal funds rate lower (they may NOT be the case), home prices would rise, putting the monthly payment right back at $2,860.

Short 🧵
2/4
This is my favorite metric of home prices because it adjusts for the size of the house.

Redfin downloads every multiple listing service (MLS) across the country to calculate their median.

Prices are at a new all-time high. Image
3/4
Redfin's measure is not a fluke, as the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index is also at an all-time high.

Home prices are booming, benefiting homeowners/sellers. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 14
1/8
Why are we not seeing a "flight-to-quality" into the dollar? Why are bond yields rising?

The answer, I believe, is the markets are NOT viewing Israel/Iran as a safe haven event, but rather a crude oil supply shock story.

IOW, this is NOT viewed as the start of WW III.
🧵
2/8
What is typical when events like happen is we get tables like this.

They are incredibly misleading.

They only highlight known historical events. They don't highlight events that everyone thought was the start of "WW III" but was not.

3/8
Do you remember last year's start of WW III?

The events sound familiar ... Israel attacked Iran and Iran retaliated.

(I'll bet you also forgot WW III also started last year.)

Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 2
1/12

Polymarket recession odds peaked at 65% on May 1st, the April ISM release date, suggesting Liberation Day and the 20% stock market correction did not damage the economy, as the "soft data" warned.

Subsequent April data confirmed this.

Will May see more of the same?

🧵 Image
2/12

The prevailing narrative in the market for months has been that the labor market is going to fall apart, forcing the Fed to cut rates.

This has not happened, and so far, the "soft" (survey) data have been wildly off in predicting the economy.
3/12

ISM Employment upticked in May from April. The first monthly "May" data point suggests the labor market is still not weakening. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 30
1/9
Why The Fed Is Not Cutting Anytime Soon

The economy is rebounding strongly, and prices are rising.

It would be reckless to cut rates under these conditions.

The market knows this ... see this chart.

🧵 Image
2/9
Collapsing Imports are Positive For GDP

*US GOODS IMPORTS FALL 19.8% M/M, BIGGEST DROP ON RECORD

The amount of imported goods declined in April, as expected. April 2 was Liberation Day, and the rise in tariffs slowed imports. Image
3/9
Slowing imports halved the Trade Deficit in April, also as expected. Image
Read 9 tweets

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