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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Oct 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Too many are "misreading" the polls, betting markets and investor opinion around the election. They are not the same.

Please read this short thread ….

The poll analyzers were only giving Trump a 10% to 20% chance of winning (shown are FiveThirtyEight and the Economist)

(1/5)
Betting markets gave Trump a 42% chance of winning yesterday before the announcement of the positive COVID test. His odds were 47% before Tuesday’s debate. Now they give Trump a 39% chance. This marks Biden’s largest lead.

(2/5)
Investors were more aligned with the betting markets than the polls.

FT – (Sep 25) Investors anticipate Joe Biden election win

UK pollster Survation found that 60 percent of 91 investment professionals polled in Sep, most based in the US, believe Mr Biden will win

(3/5)
The difference between polls and bettors was going to be reconciled by election day. Today’s announcement that Trump tested positive for COVID only accelerates the process.

Betting markets are reducing Trump’s odds of victory and are aligning more closely with the polls.

(4/5)
We have contended the markets never fully priced in a Biden victory (and the increased regulation and higher taxes that come with it). Based on trading this morning, it appears they are now taking the prospect of a Biden presidency more seriously.

(5/5)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Mar 22
1/4
Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare.

10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes.

Follow up 🧵
2/4
The immediate pushback is familiar: this “supply shock” will hurt real growth, so the Fed should cut rates.

This well-known economist has been making exactly that argument. Image
3/4
That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates.

In 2022, inflation rose more than real growth fell: the blue CPI line and arrow moved sharply higher while the green real-GDP bars and arrow moved modestly lower. The bottom panel shows the Fed’s answer: hikes, not cuts, as the federal funds rate moved from near zero in early 2022 to above 4% by year-end 2022.

Why? When inflation rises faster than growth falls, nominal growth (real GDP plus inflation) rises. If today’s oil shock does the same thing as 2022, the correct takeaway is not automatic cuts. It is possible that the Fed may have to stand pat or even consider hiking.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Mar 11
1/6
Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war.

The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission?

Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk.

x.com/MikeSchuler/st…

@johnkonrad @mercoglianos
2/6
The problem: the Administration APPEARS to not be taking the Strait threat seriously. The contradiction is stark:

- Trump to tanker captains: "These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there's nothing to be afraid of..."

- The U.S. Navy, citing risk of attacks as "too high," says it is unable to provide escorts — despite near-daily requests from the shipping industry.

WTF!

x.com/foxandfriends/…
x.com/FreightWaves/s…
3/6
Yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine was asked about naval escorts in the Strait. His answer:

"If tasked to escort, we'll look at the range of options to set military conditions to be able to do that..."

Did he just admit they don't have a plan — and haven't started one?

Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Mar 9
1/5
A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

So, what price measures "persists for a year?"

🧵
2/5
As the table below shows, crude oil futures prices for delivery into 2027 are trading in extreme backwardation. Image
3/5
Below is the calendar spread between the first contract (now April) and the 6th contract (now September).

As the bottom panel shows, this spread is -25%, a record since the mid-1990s when the contract specifications were last changed. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 7
1/4
I fear this is spot on.

@CryptoNobler's thread unpacks $BTC's "synthetic supply" problem. ETFs, structured notes (@CryptoHayes), futures, options, swaps, lending—all flood the system with "paper" BTC.

When it swamps real demand, price crashes.

x.com/CryptoNobler/s… x.com/coinbureau/sta…
2/4
@CryptoHayes: structured notes on $IBIT flooded $BTC with synthetic supply → forced liquidations turbocharged the dump.

Next rally? TradFi piles into ETFs → Wall Street "prints" more synthetics.

Price discovery decoupled from on-chain.

Volatility on steroids
3/4
Wall Street's entry turned BTC into a pseudo-fractional reserve system.

21M cap? On-chain only—price discovery swims in synthetic street "printing."

Fractional is inherently unstable. That's why banks need heavy regs (Fed/Treasury/OCC/FDIC).

On-chain BTC only needs code.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 1
1/6
10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.

These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts.

Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B.
🧵 Image
2/6
The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM).

These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation.

The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%. Image
3/6
The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel).

Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jan 19
1/11

What is Housing?

Affordable shelter or path to retirement?

It cannot be both.

We tried to make it both in the early 2000s and almost wrecked the financial system.

🧵 Image
2/11

The average home price is $417K (above), an all-time high.

This means around 43% of a median household income (~$84K) goes to housing.

For the last three years, this has been comparable to the (unsustainable) housing peak in 2006. Image
3/11

For 50 years, from the end of World War II through 1997 (red box), housing was affordable. Prices rose by the inflation rate.

In other words, it held its value but remained within reach of most renters/first-time homebuyers. Image
Read 11 tweets

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