John Pasalis Profile picture
Oct 2, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Top line number for the Toronto Area's real estate market in September.

The growth in sales was driven by strong suburban demand. Sales were up in:

Halton 73%
York 50%
Durham 55%
Peel 45%

Sales in the City of Toronto were up 18% - see all GTA stats here
realosophy.com/greater-toront…
New listings were up 12% for low-rise houses in the GTA but active inventory (total number of homes for sale) is still down 20% over last year.
But things look very different in the condo market where new listings were up 73% over last year and active listings are up 99%
A lot of people have been asking me where all this condo inventory is coming from.

Two things: new condo listings are up 13% over last year which is contributing to the higher inventory.

When demand fell dramatically in April/May, inventory started to increase...
When sales picked up in June they did not come back strong enough to make up for the lost sales in April and May

In Q2 and Q3 this year, condo sales are down 19% over last year while low-rise sales are at the same level

The decline in demand is also behind the rise in inventory

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More from @JohnPasalis

Feb 24
A lot of people in Toronto’s real estate industry knew the pre-con condo market was a bubble

So why did so few speak up? 🧵
Recently, housing commentator @DanielFoch described the pre-con market as something resembling a Ponzi dynamic

Structurally dependent on rising prices.

But this line stood out:

“Who’s going to be the guy at the party who says maybe we should sober up? Total buzz kill.” 2/
That line isn’t really about condos

It’s about the incentives that drive markets

When prices are rising and profits feel easy very few people want to disrupt the momentum

These dynamics aren’t unique to Toronto 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 28, 2025
I believe there is a new form of market manipulation quietly emerging in Canada’s new construction condo market

A lot of condos completing today were sold years ago at peak prices, and many of them are not worth what buyers paid. 1/
Imagine buying a pre-construction unit for $650K that is only worth $550K today

Until recently, banks usually looked the other way and appraised at the original price to help buyers close. 2/
But what happens when the gap becomes too big to ignore?

What happens when a $650K purchase is really worth $400K?

Someone reached out last week about a project in the Kitchener area facing exactly this problem. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Oct 24, 2025
Doug Ford’s government is proposing one of the most radical changes to rent control Ontario has ever seen

It’s a disaster for tenants 1/ Image
Right now, tenants have what’s called security of tenure

As long as they follow the lease and the law, they can stay after the first year on a month-to-month basis. 2/
Under Ford’s proposed changes, that could disappear

Landlords could end a lease after a year and decide who stays, who goes, and how much to charge next 3/
Read 10 tweets
Oct 1, 2025
We’re starting to see clear signs of financial stress emerging across the GTA housing market.

And the data on Power of Sale (POS) listings shows exactly where that stress is hitting hardest. 🧵 Image
Mortgage arrears have been climbing, now above 0.4% at many major banks and as high as 6% at some private lenders.

These rising arrears are showing up in the resale market as more forced sales hit the MLS, adding to already high inventory levels. 2/
The highest shares of Power of Sale listings are in the same areas that saw the biggest pandemic boom

When buyers rushed from Toronto to the suburbs and exurbs, those are now the regions feeling the pain.3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 22, 2025
"Poilievre has threatened to pull federal funding from universities over their alleged ideological slant"

You can’t claim to support freedom of thought and speech while punishing ideas you don’t like by defunding universities.

These are crazy times 1/
Do I agree with every idea that comes out of universities? Of course not

But as a society, we either defend freedom of expression - including speech that challenges or discomforts us

Or we let the state decide which ideas are acceptable 2/
It’s remarkable to watch Republicans in the U.S. and Conservatives in Canada embrace the second option: censorship

And it’s especially telling with Poilievre, who’s made it clear that his views on this issue closely align with Trump’s 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 20, 2024
Pre-construction condo sales are falling off a cliff and will likely remain near historic lows for quite some time.

As housing experts scramble to explain why pre-construction condo sales have crashed and what needs to be done to drive more sales 🧵⤵️ Image
They have zeroed in on one thing

The taxes and fees levied on new home sales and developers are now the reason nobody can afford to buy a new condo, according to this clamour.

And there is some truth to that 2/
Municipalities eager to take advantage of the housing boom have significantly increased development charges

While federal & provincial governments have not adjusted the GST/HST rebate despite surging home prices.

Every level of government should lower taxes on new housing 3/
Read 13 tweets

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