Ricardo Herrero Profile picture
Oct 2, 2020 16 tweets 8 min read Read on X
New #FIUCubaPoll shows that despite 54% of #Cuban-Americans still support the continuation of the embargo, majorities also support the temporary suspension of sanctions during the Covid-19 pandemic, something the Trump administration has refused to do.
Of the 1,002 #Cuban-Americans surveyed in the 2020 #FIUCubaPoll, 57% support the temporary suspension of trade sanctions on Cuba during the Covid-19 crisis; 69% support food sales and 71% support medicine sales to Cuba by U.S. companies. (starting thread) /1
Also, 56% support diplomatic relations between the US and #Cuba; 58% oppose recent restrictions on the issuing of visas at US Embassy Havana; and 58% support the resumption of the Cuban Family Reunification Program (#CFRP), which was suspended in 2019. /2
Support for unrestricted US travel to #Cuba dropped below 50% for the first time since the Bush-era, with cruise ship being the least popular (40%). Yet, 62% favor allowing U.S. commercial airlines to re-establish routes throughout the island, not just to Havana. /3
This suggests that while a majority of #Cuban-Americans may now favor some restrictions on U.S.-Cuba travel, they remain lenient on what those may be. /4
Notably, on Qs defining US-#Cuba policy as “carrots” vs “sticks”, strong majorities supported a combined approach: 68% favor policies “designed to put maximum pressure on the Cuban gov't” while 66% support policies that improve "the economic well-being of the Cuban people.” /5
iow, Obama-era view that “US-#Cuba policy should be tough on the gov't but soft on the people” has held firm. So has the shrinking salience of Cuba policy among election-year issues, ranking below the economy, healthcare, race, immigration & China(!) policy across parties. /6
Most startling number in poll is % of new émigrés who identify as Republican: 76% of those who migrated to the US between 2010 and 2015. Paradoxically, the same Cubans-Americans who most often travel to #Cuba, maintain relations on the island and favor the engagement policies. /7
Re: the 76%, appeal of Trump’s strongman/"business mogul" persona & anti-socialist bombast is a factor. But strong GOP affiliation among #Cuban recent arrivals most likely represents a rebuke of the system they struggled under & abandoned, than a defined ideological leaning. /8
#Cuban officials must reckon with this 76%. It suggests the Cuban government's relationship with its diaspora is at a new nadir. Those who arrived between 2010 to 2015 aren't batistianos. They are a direct product of the Revolution. /9
The #Cuban government's policies and resistance to reforms continue to create generational waves of opposition. But instead of granting them opportunities and representation at home, the system casts its aggrieved citizens off to Florida, where they do vote. /10
Ultimately, #FIUCubaPoll implies that party preference among Cuban-Americans is less tied to #Cuba policy preferences than hardliners claim. Put another way, although they respond well to anti-socialist rhetoric, a majority of Cuban-Americans still supports engagement policy. /11
A lesson here for Biden is that reversing those Trump measures that directly harm #Cuba families will be popular among Cuban-Americans. These include restarting commercial/charter flights, lifting remittance limits, opening consular services & fully staffing the US Embassy. /12
Another lesson for Biden & especially @TheDemocrats: you neglect this community at your own peril. 47% of #Cuban-Americans in both Miami & FL are reg. D/NPA. For most of the past 2 years, they've been courted aggressively by Trump & GOP, while local Ds have been on their own. /13
For Trump, the poll suggests #Cuba sanctions have a political ceiling, which his policies hit long ago. Rhetoric & presence did most of the work. Should he get a 2nd term, Trump could at least ease unnecessarily harmful restrictions on travel, remittances w/o losing support. /14

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More from @ric23

Oct 18, 2021
Para racionalizar la batalla que enfrenta #Cuba hoy como una contra EL IMPERIO—y no ENTRE CUBANOS—tienes que:

1) excluir a americanos descendientes de cubanos de tu definición de “cubano.”

2) ignorar que los políticos que más protegen a Helms-Burton son de descendencia cubana.
3) ignorar a las mayorías de votantes cubanos exiliados o emigrados en la Florida que eligen y re-eligen a estos políticos para que los representen en el congreso.
4) ignorar que estos exiliados y emigrados salieron de Cuba por varias razones a través de 62 años pero todos con, por mínimo, una en común: la Revolución no les concedió un futuro satisfactorio en su país natal. Y de eso nunca se olvidan.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 16, 2021
Todo un debate bajo mi twit previo sobre si el gobierno estadounidense debería sancionar a una pastelería cubana.

Ya no hay colmo. 🧵/1
Las sanciones de EEUU o 1) congelan activos en el exterior, 2) prohiben a estadounidenses, y en ciertos casos 3) entidades internacionales, hacer negocio con la entidad sancionada.

Estamos hablando de una pastelería en Santa Clara. /2
Al riesgo de ser intrépido, dudo que el dueño tenga activos en el exterior. Su mercado no son los turistas yumas. Su mercado principal es local. La sanción no lo afectará mucho. /3
Read 5 tweets
Sep 23, 2020
The race in Florida must be super tight if after three and half years, and imposing all sorts of failed sanctions that mostly harm #Cuban families, Trump FINALLY denies his country club cronies their secret stashes of Cuban rum and cigars. miamiherald.com/news/nation-wo…
The measures are low hanging fruit that allow Trump to say he's tightening the squeeze on #Cuba and won't allow anyone to go sing to Castro when he visits Miami on Friday. In short term they'll have no practical impact since Cuba is still not accepting US travelers due to Covid.
Once travel resumes, no more rum & cigar souvenirs as in the Bush and early Obama years; no lodging in any hotels, although flights are already so limited that the private casa particular market should be able to absorb demand; and...
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16, 2020
Three years ago today, President Trump flew to Miami to announce he was "cancelling" Obama's #Cuba policy. He said he'd "seek a much better deal for the Cuban people" and help them "form businesses and pursue much better lives." How well has that worked out for Cubans so far? 1/ Image
Are Cuban entrepreneurs better off today than they were three years ago? Far from it. Trump's travel restrictions have dealt a fatal blow to a burgeoning private sector largely dependent on the purchasing power of U.S. visitors. 2/ nbcnews.com/news/latino/cu…
Are Cuban families better off today than they were three years ago? The U.S. eliminated donative remittances, limited family remittances to $1,000 per member every 3 months, and formal cash transmitters are now at risk of being eliminated altogether. 3/ wlrn.org/post/will-new-…
Read 18 tweets
Jun 4, 2020
For every $1 in remittances sent to #Cuba, in order to deny a 0.13 tax to the Cuban military, the Trump administration intends to block the other 0.84 meant to go to Cuban families.

All in the name of “supporting the Cuban people.”

It really doesn't get dumber than that.
I’ll be the first to say the #Cuban government should lift its tax on remittances. But you have to be pretty thick in the skull to think this measure by the State Dept will encourage them to do it.
This will only open the market for third-country money transfer agencies to fill and incentivize money laundering through informal channels. Not to mention pile on even greater hardship on the Cuban people who this farcical policy pretends to “support.”
Read 4 tweets
Jun 3, 2020
U.S. remittances to #Cuba are channeled through one of these entities. It is inhumane and the height of hypocrisy for Sec. Pompeo to claim the Trump Administration stands with the Cuban people while attempting to cut off remittances to Cuban families in the middle of a pandemic.
FINCIMEX is the entity through which Western Union sends family remittances to #Cuba along with other money transfer service providers. It also channels Airbnb money to casas particulares on the island.
While we’ll have to wait and see if these and other licenses get grandfathered in (few details provided; announcement apparently rushed to wish Raul Castro a happy birthday or some such petty nonsense) their intent to disrupt remittances is clear.
Read 4 tweets

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