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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Mar 16

Some disorganized notes:

Re: How this war ends, it's clear that Iran is going for attrition, something the IRGC is good at, and the math works in their favor.

Meanwhile, it's not clear what the US is going for in terms of a threshold that would count as "victory".

It's also clear that short of bringing about regime change - which even the US and Israel have quietly acknowledged isn't gonna happen - Iran will retain its ability to block the Straits of Hormuz. Given the geography, it doesn't take much to disrupt shipping there.

Re Trump pressuring NATO allies to join his war - the fact is that even if every country stupidly sends its navy to the Straits, this will just pull in more countries without changing the dynamic. The French + British + Australians won't manage to do something the US can't.

Read 12 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Mar 10

In almost every way this war is becoming an absolutely catastrophic disaster and a humiliating strategic defeat for the United States. This could, relative to its scale & cost, go down as the worst planned, worst managed, worst executed war in modern US history.

Trump keeps issuing threats even as his admin are desperately trying to get the Iranians to answer the phone to agree on a way to deescalate. He doesn't get it - the Iranian government is no longer in any mood to take his bluster. They control the escalatory ladder now.

Just today we know:
- Iranian boats are starting to mine the Straits of Hormuz
- US is giving away its strategic position in Asia just to keep this war afloat
- In both the Gulf countries and Israel, more missiles/drones are getting through without interception or warning

Read 6 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Mar 6

Here's a megathread on the war on Iran that focuses on the deeper dynamics, potential trajectories, and likely outcomes.

A lot will change over the next few weeks - this thread is about what won't.

Stay until the end for an announcement & an invitation.

Most geopolitical analysis is cold and state-centric. Here, we look at the longer arcs and what they mean for the prospects for collective liberation and systems change.

This is geopolitics for liberation.

Let me start by saying that all the main actors here are awful:
- Israel is a genocidal apartheid state
- Trump is an incompetent, corrupt warmonger
- Iran's regime is a brutal, repressive theocracy

God bless and save the people of the region, they're the hope for change.

Read 75 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jul 20, 2025

Israel is historically unique in that it struts like a hegemon but survives like a colony. It dominates its region militarily and psychologically, yet is so critically dependent on foreign support that if the lifeline is cut, the entire structure starts to collapse.

No state in modern history combines such regional dominance with such strategic dependence. Israel wields power like an empire, but lives like a protectorate - it can't sustain its supremacy without continuous Western military, economic, and diplomatic support.

To be clear, Israel is *not* a colony in key ways:
- It has no metropole
- It is sovereign and self-governing
- It exports ideology and security doctrine
- Its elite wield global influence
- It wasn't built for extraction but for replacement

Read 8 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jul 16, 2025

Israel will never accept a sovereign, strong Syria. No amount of "goodwill signals" will change that, they’ll only be read as weakness and invite more aggression. Israel looks only at your capacity, never your intent. Its doctrine is security through mass devastation.

This government wasted months on appeasement while Israel bombed Syria 1000+ times, occupied ~200 sq km of land, inflamed sectarian tensions, this on top of its longstanding occupation of the Golan. Appeasement didn’t buy time or security. It sent a signal of weakness.

Accept reality or be crushed by it: Syria's main enemy isn't Hezbollah or Iran, it's Israel. Signaling "shared enemies" while it's murdering your people and occupying your land wasn't just naive, it was malpractice and an insult to strategy and to memory.
ynetnews.com/article/hk00bz…

Read 7 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

Jul 6, 2025

Here's a thread about Netanyahu's calculus for regional recalibration in the aftermath of the 12-day war with Iran.

Netanyahu is due to meet Trump tomorrow, and a lot might change - this is a thread about what won't

When Israel launched its war on Iran mid-June, I had said it's Netanyahu's war. Yes, it was also Israel's war, another war of consensus. But Netanyahu doesn't do anything unless it helps him politically.

This is a map of the parameters.

As many of you know, Netanyahu has faced mounting legal troubles for years. He's been indicted on charges of corruption and abuse of power. Long story short, he needs to be in power to stay out of prison.

Read 37 tweets

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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

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