@jam_croissant@mre2all 1/n Thanks for this. While I actually agree with some of the fundamentals here, I'm a bit skeptical of the mechanics. Companies like AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, etc have remarkably strong cash flows and have not had to tap capital markets except to subsidize employee compensation
@jam_croissant@mre2all 2/n While we can argue Fed support helped these corps, it seems more likely that the Fed has net hurt these corporations by keeping funding flowing to their weaker competitors. In fact, highly rated corp debt growth has been restrained while lower quality debt has grown rapidly
@jam_croissant@mre2all 3/n I'd go further and note that the holders of "value" stocks continue to be active managers. @choffstein recent piece does a good job of illustrating this. Unless you can create a mechanism for passive funds to flow into actively managed vehicles, I don't see how this reverses
@jam_croissant@mre2all@choffstein 4/n In prep for a podcast with @PrestonPysh last night, I listened to a recent episode where his partner in crime @stig_brodersen was suggesting $LBTYA as a beaten down value stock. Could care less about fundamentals... look at the holders... 4 of top 5 are losing assets.
@jam_croissant@mre2all@choffstein@PrestonPysh@stig_brodersen 5/5 And this is my core critique. Sure the fundamentals can improve; and yes, active managers may try to step in and buy these names. But perversely, this just creates the bounce rather than the recovery... because nothing is saving these asset managers. Weak holders one and all
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1/n Fascinating new paper by Claudia Goldin highlighted by @delong on fertility. His summary highlights why so much of "MAGA" confuses women/libs and manifests as misogyny and a desire to "return" to some historical state
2/n "High Patriarchy teaches young men that their role is to provide resources and 'protection' in return for cosseting and deference—and that a lot of the ability to provide resources and “protection” comes from first acquiring status in the male community, in substantial part by joining in the policing of uppity women."
3/n "But women with economic options have less need are much less willing to be 'protected' than their great-grandmothers, have other ways of getting resources, and the idea that motherhood comes not just with children but a husband that must be hand-fed makes it less appetizing."
1/n It's amazing to see the "capitalists" wake up to the potential for "taxes on people other than us"
"Shrink the government" to pay for lowering taxes on capital while raising taxes on consumption IS a solution to high debt. It's also a solution for a major contraction in global income.
2/n Marc Andreessen is past his, "I'm really rich and therefore read something other than computer manuals" exploration of philosophy and into his "Ooh... history" phase
3/n Elon suddenly highlighting that taxes are not a source of "return on citizenship" but rather a legal obligation that stems FROM citizenship (or for access to a state's citizens, eg tariffs)
1/n So apparently we're doing this again... @EricBalchunas @JSeyff @psarofagis @business @TheTerminal
2/n It's one thing to have your fundamental errors pointed out (repeatedly) and adjust. It's another to double down. You have to ask, "What's the agenda?" at some point
3/n So let's evaluate their headline analysis -- "the most passively owned stocks have underperformed" (including the claim that the R2000 is "more passively owned). It relies on this type of analysis:
Well, I'll tell you... 1) Vanguard refuses to speak to outsiders. Numerous Vanguard employees have proposed I visit the Vanguard campus and speak to their teams and management forbids it.
2/n 2) Various Vanguard propaganda machines like @bogleheads exist. There are several pages devoted to dismissing my podcasts. Feel free to review:
3/n 3) Polite rebuttals are typically along these lines (there are many impolite ones -- enjoy). These are simply restatements of Grossman-Stiglitz, which I directly address in my work. G-S is the "wisdom of the crowds" and works great if everyone gets one vote. Except passive lumps a huge number of voters into one pool with one vote. x.com/profplum99/sta…
1/n While I'm actually in agreement with Dave that there is not an "intentional" fixing of data, I'm with my "smarter Econ" friends who are asserting "something is wrotten" in the published data.
2/n The state level data is subject to interpretation due to the framing of the question, "Last week, did you do any unpaid work in for (either) pay (or profit)?"
3/n Unsurprisingly, the emergence of the gig economy seems to have played a role in reducing the unemployment rate. Prior to 2009, if you lost your job you'd likely file for unemployment AND likely try to find a cash job (bartender, babysitter, etc) to supplement your reduced income WHILE you searched for a job. The introduction of 1099K in 2012 made that more difficult. Revisions in 2021 to reporting levels made it impossible. Now you're either employed OR unemployed. The gray area in between is increasingly rare.
1/n Agree this is not CRAZY. But it’s also not “fundamental”… US CDS trading wide of France (47 vs 28) a good example of issue. France Debt/GDP not meaningfully different and deteriorating at same pace.
3/n The selloff in bonds is not a “US issue”… it’s a global phenomenon. France interest costs rising more rapidly than US. And while US unfunded liabilities, eg Soxial Security/Medicare coming on is an issue, these have automatic stabilizers. Reminder, benefits get cut automatically in US