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Michael Green Profile picture
Michael Green
@profplum99
Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
CRE Profile picture Not Fred Goodwin Profile picture Adrian S Profile picture kleros Profile picture M Profile picture 31 subscribed
Apr 19 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/n While I'm actually in agreement with Dave that there is not an "intentional" fixing of data, I'm with my "smarter Econ" friends who are asserting "something is wrotten" in the published data. 2/n The state level data is subject to interpretation due to the framing of the question, "Last week, did you do any unpaid work in for (either) pay (or profit)?"Image
Oct 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/n Agree this is not CRAZY. But it’s also not “fundamental”… US CDS trading wide of France (47 vs 28) a good example of issue. France Debt/GDP not meaningfully different and deteriorating at same pace. 2/n US Debt/GDP vs France Debt/GDP vs CDS
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Oct 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/nAlways flattered when @radigancarter takes the time to write on my thoughts. With that said, this is a very important “error”: “wise enough to understand that smart financial decisions, like most good long-term decisions, means I need to do the opposite of my initial emotional reaction to events that surround me.”
2/n Emotional events, like the GFC, represent opportunity in HINDSIGHT. If you define events by their ex-post success, they always appear “smart.” In the heat of the moment, the “smart” move may not be the “after the fact” smart move
Sep 25, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/n It's always a bit sad to see posts like this proclaiming the low-end household is "in great shape." One, talk to them. They're not. Two, the analysis is just wrong. Let's dig in. 2/n The Fed data is misleading when aggregated. Several will proclaim, "it's real estate" or "of course, stock markets are higher." But neither is really the driver here. Remember in the bottom 50% of households by WEALTH, home ownership is low and few own stocks. Image
Aug 20, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/n As the parent of multiple college athletes at top schools, I feel compelled to share that ONCE ADMITTED the bias turns against the student-athlete at elite schools. They work 25 hour/wk jobs representing the university and yet classmates presume they are less intelligent 2/ and many professors are overtly hostile. My daughter has had to drop classes with professors that require 100% attendance with no excuses accepted despite the obvious impossibility of being in two locations at once.

It's made worse as coaches are often unaware of
May 29, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
1/n A couple of people have sent me @JosephPolitano’s excellent thread as a counterpoint to my piece today 2/n I can’t speak for Joey, but I can certainly note that we are actually saying the same thing. First, inflation is “complicated” — despite what you’ve read, MEASURED inflation is nowhere and never a strictly ANYTHING phenomenon
May 12, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/n Excellent thread from @RJRCapital that gets a few VERY important points wrong that makes his thread even more terrifying. 2/n In point #3, he asserts that active managers are responsible for the relative share gain of the mega cap leaders and that passive would keep them “the same.” A common misunderstanding. Passive funds buy in proportion to market cap, BUT liquidity does not scale with market cap
May 9, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/n Differences in approach are becoming clearer. @FedGuy12 does a good job of summarizing the the newly released Financial Stability Report. He's right... things looked OK in the "current conditions" segment. For example, auto delinquencies are indeed "normalizing" Image 2/n even as they rise (and will continue to rise on a seasonal basis as Q1 tends to see bonus checks/tax refunds used to catch up). I would highlight that the low levels of delinquency are a function of unique factors that are now REVERSING rather than normalizing
Mar 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1/n The weighting is the HARDest part. Let’s take this “bullish” response to @hkuppy ‘s interesting thread at face value 2/n Assuming the historical cycles hold, sometime between now and 2030 there will be an epic buying opportunity in commodities. But before we get there, it’s likely to look something like this.
Mar 16, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/n This was awesome. Lacy is so, so good.

We had a question from the audience on air travel and economic strength which I wasn't able to address live. I've talked about this elsewhere, but it's worth highlighting as there's actually a VERY topical dynamic right now. 2/n The TSA daily passenger data has matched 2019 levels and are up roughly 12% from 2022 levels. This is clearly a sign of economic strength, no? Well... it's complicated
Feb 17, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/n Some passive is worse than others... a thread. Had an awesome call with a Harvard prof collaborator yesterday. There's so much great academic work on passive emerging that I can barely keep up myself. One interesting question on "is all passive the same" we had consensus. 2/n Most who follow me know the simple rule, "If you give me cash, then buy" drives a chunk of the passive phenomenon. It overlaps with theories of order flow and market impact that date back to the 1980s when tick data first became electronically available. Mkt mpact can be
Jan 26, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Live with Richard. On a different space twitter.com/i/spaces/1mnGe…
Jan 25, 2023 • 9 tweets • 11 min read
@ModeledBehavior @DeanBaker13 @besttrousers @UpdatedPriors 1/n Adam, appreciate surprise. @UpdatedPriors provided useful information, but disagree w/many of his arguments. NOT disputing a surge in applications. Disputing whether those were "genuine" or tied to policy arbitrage. The early indications support my arguments @ModeledBehavior @DeanBaker13 @besttrousers @UpdatedPriors 2/n The honest answer is "We don't know much" because the data and auditing of data is so slow. The most recent revised data is Q1-22. According to that dataset, unique feature in 2021 was NOT new establishment formation and jobs created by these businesses. "Find the outlier"
Jan 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
You'll see lots of commentary on the surge in business formations and a "rebirth" of entrepreneurship. What you won't see all that often is this chart which notes that EVERYTHING since 2019 is projected, not actual. The projected data is based on EIN filings. Many changes there. Image "The national surge in business formation since 2020 has been led by a handful of industries, including transport and warehousing; accommodation and food services; health care and social assistance; and retail trade."
Oh... look... what happens if I incorporate as a DoorDasher? Image
Dec 30, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
twitter.com/i/spaces/1YqKD… WW3? When will we know?
Dec 29, 2022 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
For @JosephPolitano Labor spaces @JosephPolitano Revisions to NFP and Recessions
Dec 29, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
For Spaces today with Helm Partners -- Slide 1 Slide 2
Dec 27, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Realized Vol has worked in 2022 How can VIX of 22 be compressed?
Dec 26, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Marko Papic slides 1/n 2/n
Nov 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/3 The slide I shared with @menlobear in this interview alongside a simple model of Equities and Bonds. A good read on this dynamic, Fed driven "bear" as a rebalancing mechanism, is @ProfJAParker nber.org/papers/w28028 2/4 Imagine a simple model with 50/50 bonds/equities where prices can be influenced by external actors. Bonds are easy to imagine because they are very close to commodity substitutes -- if the Fed raises rates, bonds (esp front) will fall. Fed Funds vs 2s and BND
Oct 21, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
1/n OK, because I'm feeling generous I'll take a shot at explaining this to the Rusty Shak. 2/n First, everyone "knows" this chart: