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Nate Cohn Profile picture
@Nate_Cohn
Oct 2, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Tomorrow AM: Times/Siena polls in Florida and Pennsylvania
We're still in the field overnight, so finishing touches in the morning and no need to set your alarm, as it seems some of you do.
Started Weds., so post-debate. Who knows what today will mean, though I'll see whether there's any serious sign of movement in the AM (doubt it)
As far as I'm concerned we could justify polling PA continuously between now and the election

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
Nov 5, 2024
Will there be a needle? A quick thread.
As you may have read, our colleagues in the Tech Guild are on strike. While they don't play a role in the model itself, they built and maintain the infrastructure that feeds us data and lets us publish on the internet
This is true of everything on the nyt (including our results pages), but the needle is a huge data load, it's more brittle, and we've only published it a handful of times (v 1000s of results pages). There will be bugs and it could be hard to debug
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Nov 3, 2024
A final point that I *hope* is obvious from the whole of my work, but may not be obvious if you only read individual snippets: I have no idea whether our polls (or any polls) polls be "right", too good for Harris, or too good for Trump.
No one does.
This cycle, I've tried to offer real meat to these scenarios with evidence -- not just abstract "30% harris landslide, 30% trump landslide, 40% too close.
If you personally found some of that evidence more convincing than others, that's great. Me? I have no idea
A quick summation of some of those points
- There's no reason to believe pollsters 'fixed' what went wrong in 2020
- There's some evidence nonresponse bias may be better, but also evidence it's still there / no reason to assume it's gone. Unknown whether weighting fixes
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Nov 3, 2024
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign show a dead-heat, with Harris gaining along late deciders in the Sun Belt while the Rust Belt tightens
nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/…Image
Whatever happens on Tuesday, the polls suggest that Harris has mostly reassembled the Democratic coalition in the battlegrounds, with Harris still gaining among Black, Hispanic and younger voters It was just a few months ago that we had Trump 9 or 12 pts in GA/NV v. Biden!
At the same time, Trump ha consolidated white working class voters down the stretch -- including erasing Harris' lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Suddenly, it's a much more 2020-like battleground map
Read 9 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Oct 14, 2024
New Jersey stands out to me as a place where we really need a poll
For real! There isn't any polling, there's a lot of evidence that nearby New York is going poorly for Democrats, it's a diverse state, and the New Jersey Democratic showing in 21/22 was not great either
Unfortunately, the NJ sample across our national polling isn't very large but... what we do have does suggest above-average Trump gains, even after being weighted statewide (whether you look at the Trump-Harris sample or the larger sample adding Biden-Trump)
Read 9 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Oct 12, 2024
A few comments on the Times/Siena polls, based on some replies I see
1. One thing worth keeping in mind in the great 'recall vote' debate is that the decision was made in late 21/early 22.
The reasons were straightforward: it made polls less accurate, including our 2020 polls. It was basically the only way to make them worse.
It was also an especially fraught moment for recall vote, IMO. At the time, it wasn't clear Trump would run; it was possible he would be in jail by now. Even if it helped in '22 (it didn't for us), the risk for '24 was obvious and extraordinary
Read 10 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Oct 12, 2024
Harris 78, Trump 15 in our Times/Siena oversample of Black voters.
In our 2020 national polls, Biden led 83-6 among Black voters.
nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/…
I'll have more on this soon, but if you're the sort of person squinting at whether Trump will win 13 or 16 percent of the Black vote, it's worth flagging the sensitivity of that kind of question to different definitions of "Black" and varying turnout
The poll result here takes a broadly inclusive definition of Black voters, including multiracial and Hispanic Black voters (Black alone or in combination, as the Census would put it).
Harris is up 80-13 with the narrower group of voters who are only Black, not multiracial
Read 6 tweets

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