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Josh Wolfe Profile picture
@wolfejosh
Oct 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
1/ PERFECTION.

Can’t listen to pop music.

Can listen endlessly to this—4 note progression (for 0:55) with harmonic synth building to a crescendo bridge of explosive dissonance + thrashing emotional release.

A few of my favorite new tracks.
This is “Genesis” from @deftones.
2/ This is called “This Link is Dead” by @deftones

The tempo switch from melodic calm— to a bit of the old chaotic thrash.
3/ This is “Pompeji” by @deftones

Same structure of calm to chaos—and back again...
4/ Last is “Ceremony” by @deftones

(with visuals that remind me of one of my favorite fashion brands @BlackScale).

Love this new album.
Crazy first saw them live 25years ago.

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More from @wolfejosh

Josh Wolfe Profile picture
May 17
1/ Preview of a speculative hypothesis

hormuz > fertilizer shortage > vulnerable food supply chain > food insecurity > existing migratory pressures exacerbated > peripheral country crisis in EU
=mkts 📉

unassimilated immigrants + rise of Right > violent clashes in EU
=mkts 📉 Image
2/ Complex systems (via @sfiscience) fail not from obvious blows

but from seemingly inconsequential events (a "single spark") igniting volatile _ pre-existing conditions.

endless historical precedents of small spark collrelations: ex #1 Russian Wheat > Arab Spring... Image
@sfiscience 3/ Ex 2: single shot fired in Sarajevo > WWI Image
Read 6 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
May 8
1/ On Feb 21 I told my boss aka my wife @LTwolfe that I had my third conviction call not yet appreciated + to buy a basket

*In 2016 it was NVDA, pitched publicly at Invest For Kids in Chicago (80x+) when Lux portfolio company Zoox was using NVDA chips and I predicted the narrative would change from gaming consoles PS4/Xbox to simulation and AI…
2/ here was the 2016 tweet on NVDA…
3/ In the fall is 2024 I pitched SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung and we bought in our pa

Mostly because I had read a technical paper about LLMs and inference on device with local flash (again changing narrative from commodity memory players to coveted attach rates on HBM AND edge)
Read 10 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Mar 18
1/ New paper from @ylecun et al on alternative approach for AI to learn more biologically...

paper basically says AI is super smart but still can't learn like a toddler can...

the main critique Image
the main critique...

is that top models today dont learn once deployed.

and curating data + training pipelines + filtering out noise is all done by humans in loop instead of being an intrinsic skill of the AIs...

here's Claude explaining the paper simply Image
3/ not quite Kahneman style but they call it System A +B

System A = learning from observation

this is self-supervised learning like predicting next word or video frame. good at making representations but passive and struggles to understand cause + effect... Image
Read 7 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Feb 21
1/ The shift from GPU capex (NVDA) to memory intelligence is already underway (SK, Samsung, Micron).

What will be next?

Even the best HBM chips are constrained by how they get architected into systems...
2/ Nvidia's GPU racks have a fixed compute-to-memory ratio. It is baked in + hard to change.

It is GREAT for training––and a WALL for memory-intensive inference...
3/ We found a company with 1,000x more memory than a standard enterprise server.

1 of their servers replaces up to 10 conventional racks.

Less floor space. Less power. Less cooling. Same or better output...
Read 7 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Feb 20
New Lux LP letter dropping this weekend...
2/ Q4 2025 Lux LP Letter… Image
3/ the DILUTION DELUSION
vs CONFIDENT CONCENTRATION

physics teaches that systems in disequilibrium eventually corrrect and the questions is never whether, but how––and how violently.

excess energy must dissipate whethery by gradual cooling or explosive release… Image
Read 11 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Dec 5, 2025
1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched

LONG
Adobe (ADBE)

SHORT
basket of scientific publishers
Wiley
Elsevier
Springer Nature

AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%)

AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers
2/ first $ADBE thesis then the short basket + weighting

reasonably clean dislocation in large-cap SW

Stock ~$325 (down ~40% from highs)

Mult compressed from ~40x to ~20x

EV/EBITDA ~11–12x (10yr low)

mkt sees "value trap" facing existential AI threat

I see category error
3/ I'll argue the consensus bear case:

"AI kills the seat" + commoditizes design

one AI-augmented designer replaces three

Adobe loses its moat, got disrupted, growth is slowing + it’s milking a hostage customer base...
Read 25 tweets

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