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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
@SimonWDC
Oct 3, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
In the last 36 hrs 7 people at the Coney Barrett announcement last Sat have tested positive - the Trumps, Hope Hicks, Senators Lee and Tillis, the President of Notre Dame, an unnamed journalist.

Names of everyone there, and their status, needs to be made public immediately.
I think whether the White House really contact traces the Coney Barrett event last Sat is a political acid test for Trump and his team.

Are they really doing it? Who is in charge? Are they working directly w/the DC govt, other states impacted?

politico.com/news/2020/10/0…
There is video of @KellyannePolls talking with Bill Barr at this Coney Barrett event for a long time. Any one checked on Barr?

Here's the video of Conway and Barr talking for a long time:

We also have to find out whether there was after events that night that could have contributed to the spread......

This is becoming something of a legit nightmare for the Republican Party - and for good reason my friends.

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 5
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris

There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
9 of 10 forecasters went into E-D with Harris now ahead:

The more rigorous @washingtonpost battleground averages have Harris winning the election today.

The right may have invented data, maps, Polymarket voodoo showing Trump leading but in the real world Harris has outperformed him and is winning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 5
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.

Released a video on this yesterday 👇2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-days-to-go…
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 4
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.

Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit. Image
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.

The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.

Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 26
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.

Bottom line - we had a good week all.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 21
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…
Read 15 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 12
So, a short thread about why it is so important to Trump that it be perceived that he is leading in the polls when he isn't.

In sum - it is his campaign's primary strategy to obscure his historic ugliness. 1/
Trump may be a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon but he is leading in the polls and is strong.

Trump may be a dangerous extremist, a bigot, misogynist and a racist but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 2/
Trump may want to end the global economy which has made us prosperous, end the Western alliance which has kept us safe, end American democracy which has kept us free but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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