Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture
Oct 3, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A consequential day (& next few weeks! for Brexit). A few thoughts. There is no chance of a “tunnel” next week. Gaps on substance too large. Instead, talks will move into a “restricted format”. This is a more intensive process, involving fewer officials from both sides 1/
Even in a best-case scenario, the 15-16 October Council will not deliver a deal, but could instruct @MichelBarnier to conclude one. A “tunnel” would then follow. In a worst case scenario, the EU27 will signal willingness to keep talking, but ramp up their no deal preparations 2/
Key question now is less about policy gaps & more abt political willingness. Both sides see parameters of deal. Question is, can they sell it if they do it? So for Bxl, purpose of today's call is to figure out if Johnson wants a deal - & is willing to concede ground to get one 3/
But this applies equally to EU too. The latest French polls show @EmmanuelMacron dipping sharply in public confidence, now 6 points down to 29%, given his Govt's handling of Covid-19. Can he now afford to sell out fish? The next few weeks will answer that question - for UK & EU

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More from @Mij_Europe

Jul 8
President Emmanuel Macron’s appealed to the UK  this afternoon to throw in its lot with Europe – Brexit or no Brexit – to defend democracy and the rules-based international order against threats from Russia and China but also implicitly from Donald Trump 1/
In an emotional speech to the British parliament on the first day of a state visit, the French President never mentioned the US head of state by name. But he urged Britain to join France and other European countries in resisting an “excessive, dual dependency on China & US” 2/
“I don’t put China on the same basis as the United States, with whom we have a strong alliance,” Macron said “But lets be realistic”. The US-launched trade war was an “explicit decision” not to comply any more with  international law. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 7
🇩🇪🇫🇷 France and Germany will create a joint defence and security council as a symbol of a renewed “friendship” and “leap  forward” in the stuttering Franco-German alliance, President Emmanuel Macron and the new German Chancellor, Fredrich Merz announced today. 1/
The council will discuss, amongst other things, the possibility of extending the umbrella of the French nuclear deterrent to other EU countries, Chancellor Merz said. But he made it clear that Germany expected and wanted to continue the existing American nuclear guarantee. 2/
The two leaders were talking at a brief press conference at the Elysée Palace as part of Merz’s first foreign visit after his troubled election by the Bundestag yesterday. It is traditional for all new French and German leaders to cross the Rhine as their first foreign trip. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 3
🇫🇷🇪🇺🇺🇸 The war begins. President @EmmanuelMacron has just called on big European  businesses to freeze all investments in the United States in retaliation for the “brutal and unjustified” import duties imposed by Donald Trump. 1/
Speaking to an emergency conference of French businesses directly threatened by the 20% tariffs on EU exports, Macron said: “ We are not naive. We are going to protect ourselves. 2/
“It’s important that all investment, planned or arteady announced, should be suspended until we have clarified things with the US.” 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 7
Some thoughts on the European response to the chaos now emanating from the White House - on Ukraine and more broadly, based on chats with senior European policymakers directly or indirectly involved in formulating the bloc's response 1/
It's clear to me that EU leaders & their most senior officials are clearly seized of this moment. They aren't under any illusions about the risks to Ukraine or European security. US alignment with Russia can do two things: result in panic or focus. Right now we're seeing focus 2/
Making €bn available for Ukraine & the EU's own security & defence is not a sufficient response. But it is a necessary one. So the EU has unleashed national budgets, the EU budget, the EU's borrowing capacity & private capital via the EIB, to enable much more defence spending 3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 2
‼️🇫🇷🇬🇧 The Franco-British ceasefire plan for Ukraine involves an initial one month “truce” to halt all air and sea fighting and all attacks on energy infrastructure, President Emmanuel Macron has revealed. 1/
In an interview with Le Figaro, conducted on his way to the London summit and published tonight, Macron also called for European nations to agree a new defence spending target of 3% or 3.5% of GDP (compared to 2% at present). 2/
Macron said the ceasefire under discussion with the UK PM Keir Starmer and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zekensky would come in two stages. In the first, one-month- long phase, it would apply only to the air, sea and energy installations. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
Macron gave surprisingly upbeat commentary on Trump-Russia-Ukraine crisis in 80min live video conversation with the French public tonight. He said “uncertainty” generated by Trump could, in the end, be “good for Ukraine & good for Europe” but needed to be “structured” properly 1/
Macron said he would tell President Trump when he flies to Washington on Monday “you cannot afford to be weak with President Putin….Weakness is not you. It’s not in your nature. It’s not in your interest. How can you  be credible with China if you are weak with Putin?” /2
The French President carefully avoided the kind of push-back against Trump’s inaccurate comments on the Ukraine war which has been voiced by other senior members of his Govt. “Donald Trump generates uncertainty amongst others because he wants to do deals,” Macron said 3/
Read 6 tweets

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