1. Yes, @kkondik is spot on in terms of the assessment here. In my forecast- which comes back out Sunday, the NC Senate seat is seat 50- although there are reasons to believe it was looking soft before this happened. Primary bc the @CalforNC was focused on wooing Indies & mod Rs
2. to the exclusion of any other efforts and messaging as I knew it would be when I was fervently hoping a stronger nominee would emerge. Sadly, NC's bench sat out, failing to realize how good the atmosphere would be in 2020- looking at 2020 & Burr's open seat which si DUMB,
3. my research being blacklisted off election twitter, it was hard for me to convince people back in 2019 that come fall of 2020 it would be a dominant environment to topple Tillis. So they end up w Tillis, and for the 2nd time the Ds find themselves getting screwed by the sexual
4. appetites of older white men. But this will also give us a good test of how much the D electorate will tolerate. We know how bad the R electorate is- they tried and almost succeeded in sending a child molester to the Senate in Alabama. They weren't thwarted in that effort by
5. R voters- they were thwarted by a surge of Dems and Indies. Control of the senate is on the line. I don't see Tillis dropping out and I don't see the Dems dropping him. Maybe he'll realize too that the only way he ever could win this race was via NC's college educated Ds & Is
6. and driving massive black turnout by focusing on the stakes of control of the senate and tying Tillis to Trump. That was the campaign he should have been running all along- and the fallacy of his "get Rs to bail on Tillis plan" was already apparent. But in terms of "guy wanted
7. to cheat on his wife" scandal rendering him unelectable? I'm guessing no, not in this environment with control of the senate at stake.
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Harris/Walz Have Changed the Fundamentals of 2024🧵
The data is starting to catch up to the shockwave that is the nomination of Vice President Harris.
One of the biggest problems Democrats faced this cycle was voter apathy towards Joe Biden. Fair or not, Americans wanted a new candidate and as Nikki Haley suggested back in the GOP Primary, the first party that gave them a new choice would have a big edge.
We had another election with “double haters.”
Now we only have single haters.
What most analysts and pundits opined could be merely a “Harris honeymoon” is translating now into what I expected we’d see the 48 hours after we saw high-profile Democrat after Democrat put their own ambitions aside to help the party coalesce around Harris: Harris will have the edge as we go into the fall.
The Winds of Change:
Harris at Top of the Ticket is About to Shake It Up
🧵You know I prefer to have solid data to back up my assertions, but in this case I have decided for the benefit of your mental health to throw caution to the wind and get ahead of the data a bit.
The temptation to parcel out every poll this past week and next will be high (and the clicks they provoke too tempting) for them not to do so, but I want to make something crystal clear:
it will take until heading into the DNC in 3 weeks for the polls to have amassed enough data to tell us how much the dynamics of the race have changed by giving the American people the ONE thing they wanted: a younger candidate.
Today in 1933, Adolph Hitler swore this oath as he as he became the German chancellor:
“I swear loyalty to the Constitution, obedience to the law, and conscientious fulfillment of the duties of my office, so help me God.”
Having run on an explicitly authoritarian platform, within a year, Hitler had completely neutralized the "coalition government," outlawed all parties aside from the Nazis, purged the civil services of Jews and political foes, cracked down on the free press, and sent thousands of political enemies to Dachau.
In Hitler's Germany, Germans took a very different kind of oath, one to Hitler, not the law.
“I swear I will be true and obedient to the Führer of the German Reich and people, Adolf Hitler, observe the law, and conscientiously fulfill the duties of my office, so help me God.
Over the next 10 months, we are going to walk you through Project 1933 so you can appreciate the weakness of legal protections in the face of people committed to violating it and understand how Project 1933 relates to the Republican Party's Project 2025.
🧵Keep Calm and Listen to the Signal:
Polls are the Noise, Election Results are the Signal
I want to make something clear right up front: the 2024 presidential election will be decided within roughly 7 swing states and will produce a very tight margin for the eventual winner
The fact is from now, until Election Day, there is a 50/50 chance we lose, no matter what probabilities certain models spit out.
The Biden-Harris campaign strategy will make the choice clear in 2024: democracy or dictatorship, BUT
I need you to prepare yourselves now for the inevitability that roughly 50% of Americans are going to find Trump’s #Project2025 message of removing “unelected bureaucrats” from government agencies in order to “purge the deep state” highly attractive.