Thread by @sfrantzman

Thread: If Iran judges that the conflict in Armenia and Azerbaijan is creating any instability in Iran or stoking ethnic tensions, it will move quickly to secure a ceasefire via work with Ankara and Moscow based on the Astana model. Those talking about "Turkey vs. Iran" are wrong

Why are they wrong? Because the hidden deal between these countries, who may not always share interests, is no stoking tensions inside sovereign borders of the other. For instance Russia is wary of extremists, Turkey of PKK, Iran of ethnic tensions;

The idea that the conflict which Turkey encouraged between Azerbaijan and Armenia might be used in any way to weaken the Iran regime will stop immediately if Tehran feels this way through quick calls to Ankara and Moscow.

Ankara understands this and plans accordingly. Only some people in the West think there is some mythical idea of Ankara helping the US against the Iran regime, i.e that Turkey supports US sanctions and maximum pressure...no Turkey does not. Ankara works with Iran.

While Ankara, Iran and Russia may partition Syria into areas of influence...when it comes to internal borders...there can be no acceptance of any of these big states meddling inside eachother borders...same with relations with China.

Tehran messaging already is concern over the battles near the border. While some suggested Azerbaijan would be able to take areas of Nagorna-Karabakh or even move along the Iran border towards exclave near Turkey, Iran would be concerned about this.

The correct analysis that Turkey, Iran and Russia are the emerging powerful states is accurate and the era of 10 years of recent wars; or even 30 years of instability and global war on terror; and US hegemony is changing...as powerful states return.

The powerful states share common interests, they want to co-opt extremist groups and use them, contract them, make them proxies, but they don't want chaos and instability. They want to move in to create spheres of influence or frozen conflicts in weak states

They want to stop weak states from spreading extremism, they learned over the years that weak, ungoverned, unstable areas, spread instability. Turkey's obsession now with PKK was a result of seeing that in Syria in 2014-2015. Russia from Chechnya's lessons, Iran from various.

The goal now is for powerful states to grab up areas in other states, like Russia does in Georgia-Ukraine, or Turkey in N. Syria and Libya or Iran in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon. This is how things work. No one will be allowed, by Tehran, to destabilize Iran, certainly not Turkey

Why do we know this. Because Iran also wanted to make sure there are no more Kurdish groups carrying out attacks in Iran, and it sought to stop PJAK and then also KDPI etc. It did that also through pressure and deals abroad.

The idea that the US, stretched as it is with various issue...could use the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict to somehow fan flames inside Iran of protest is unlikely. Turkey won't wan that...Tehran will work to make sure it doesn't happen. And Azerbaijan is on the border, not far away

I always get complaints from Ankara analysts who claim "no, Seth, you're wrong, Ankara is hostile to Iran"...but it isn't. There are no statements by the foreign minister etc. In fact Ankara understands Iran and can work with it and has a way of doing that. It hedges.

Ankara is hostile to Israel, hostile to France...it knows how to put out statements attacking numerous countries, from Holland to Germany, Austria, India, UAE, etc...it almost never critiques Iran.

evidence tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1399/0…